PKwx
(Traveler)
09/03/17 08:50 AM
69.249.242.189
Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position

This is not the time for conjecture from arm chair meteorologists. At some point a single model or even a single model run is going to display a disaster scenario at sometime for someone. The forecast put out the the NHC are based on many model runs and model types, model performance history and the lasted data. A team of Hurricane meteorologists and scientists deliberate and come to consensus on the forecast because lives and economies are at stake based on their forecasts. There is reason why their forecast only goes out 5-days and they draw an uncertainty cone. They are not media weather announcers or meteorologist looking to say I got the location of the landfall right before anybody else.

Just read the technical forecast discussion that goes into the forecast http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/030849.shtml?

Yes, it looks ominous for St Martin and preparation is advised. But still a lot of uncertainty as to the radius of effect as its such a compact storm. The East Coast, the odds the US is in play verses going out to sea are increasing. Its the peak of Hurricane season, we should be prepared, plan and have a Plan B but not panic.



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