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Carol_HillAdministrator
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Joined: 08/01/00
Posts: 63329
Loc: Central Florida!
Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: sxmmartini]
      #1742219 - 08/31/17 02:49 PM (47.192.5.2)

I moved this here from the People Talk forum and will lock the other thread. This one looks like a really bad one. Fingers crossed!

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sasasal
Traveler


Joined: 03/09/17
Posts: 167
Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: Carol_Hill]
      #1742220 - 08/31/17 03:06 PM (24.102.161.71)

I remember Louis like it was yesterday. the Island was crippled for a very long time. boats overturned in the water, houses crumbled all over the island. We who have a home could not get there to see or do anything, as no one was able to enter except med help... It took at least three years to see some normal on Island. Roofs gone, lots of local housing gone. All businesses down for a long time... I can pray that this does not happen, but than again, Louis sat on the Island for three days of pounding, worst ever. Please stay away, St.M. can not endure another major hurricane for sure...

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sxmmartini
Traveler


Joined: 04/16/05
Posts: 5573
Loc: Amityville, New York
Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: sasasal]
      #1742237 - 08/31/17 05:48 PM (63.143.198.174)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSpPr3-fp_Y

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Carol_HillAdministrator
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Joined: 08/01/00
Posts: 63329
Loc: Central Florida!
Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: sxmmartini]
      #1742246 - 08/31/17 06:56 PM (107.77.253.7)

Interesting. Don't remember seeing a video like that before from a Sint Maarten official. Hopefully everyone will prepare and it won't be needed..

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sail2wind
Traveler


Joined: 12/09/05
Posts: 10194
Loc: GJ, CO S/V Long Overdue
Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: Carol_Hill]
      #1742258 - 08/31/17 08:27 PM (184.166.21.62)

it is 3000 miles away

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NickR
Sponsor


Joined: 08/17/06
Posts: 1977
Loc: Leverick Bay
Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: sail2wind]
      #1742264 - 08/31/17 09:46 PM (76.76.166.71)

Evan / Nina...just days away!I have your spot reserved for the weekend?

--------------------
Nick Willis
"Mine Host"
Leverick Bay Resort & Marina


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DavidinChelseaMA
Traveler


Joined: 07/25/11
Posts: 401
Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: NickR]
      #1742267 - 09/01/17 06:11 AM (24.34.189.240)

Pretty much every model now has it curving north of the entire island chain. Euro has a more westward motion, and is considered an excellent model usually, but there is the wisdom of the majority as far as all the other models showing it curving north.

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sxmmartini
Traveler


Joined: 04/16/05
Posts: 5573
Loc: Amityville, New York
Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: DavidinChelseaMA]
      #1742269 - 09/01/17 06:56 AM (209.140.43.144)



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sxmmartini
Traveler


Joined: 04/16/05
Posts: 5573
Loc: Amityville, New York
Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: sasasal]
      #1742272 - 09/01/17 07:46 AM (63.143.205.226)

Quote:

sasasal said:
I remember Louis like it was yesterday. the Island was crippled for a very long time. boats overturned in the water, houses crumbled all over the island. We who have a home could not get there to see or do anything, as no one was able to enter except med help... It took at least three years to see some normal on Island. Roofs gone, lots of local housing gone. All businesses down for a long time... I can pray that this does not happen, but than again, Louis sat on the Island for three days of pounding, worst ever. Please stay away, St.M. can not endure another major hurricane for sure...




I have a pic from Hurricane Luis 1995 it was taken on oyster pond road looking down on pre Oyster Bay Beach Resort. The Great House next to Busbys is in the pic. Oyster Pond yacht club was there as well.


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Carol_HillAdministrator
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Joined: 08/01/00
Posts: 63329
Loc: Central Florida!
Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: DavidinChelseaMA]
      #1742274 - 09/01/17 08:08 AM (107.77.253.9)

The official NHC forecast doesn't go that far in advance, but it sure looks much closer than that to me. This is what I see on Storm Carib's 'how close can it get'.

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.5N, 58.0W or about 339.5 miles (546.3 km) from your location. This is corresponding with the 120 hour position of the 5-day forecast (Wednesday, September 6 at 5:00AM AST).


Just for 'fun'... If the storm would continue on this track, the extrapolated closest point (X-CPA) is estimated at 18.6N, 63.0W or about 39.4 miles (63.4 km) from your location, where it can be in about 5 days, 23 hours and 20 minutes from now (Thursday, September 7 at 7:24AM AST, be aware that this location is not part of the official forecast and is prone to large errors).

40 miles away from a monster hurricane is WAY too close.


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