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StormJib
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Joined: 11/30/14
Posts: 1036
September in The Caribbean
      #1705809 - 08/19/16 07:17 PM (50.191.95.8)


Numbers = Hours or in the case +/- 5/6 days



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Sunnykm
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Joined: 01/18/15
Posts: 188
Loc: California
Re: September in The Caribbean [Re: StormJib]
      #1705847 - 08/20/16 12:01 PM (71.195.127.67)

SJ The tracking map is very pretty, but I am not a weather girl so could you explain the "numbers=days"? What numbers?

I will be done in November, could you post weather models for the month?


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GeorgeC1
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Joined: 04/24/02
Posts: 4754
Loc: GA/NC
Re: September in The Caribbean [Re: Sunnykm]
      #1705849 - 08/20/16 12:20 PM (108.213.0.118)

I vote for the yellow line!
G


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StormJib
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Joined: 11/30/14
Posts: 1036
Re: September in The Caribbean [Re: Sunnykm]
      #1705850 - 08/20/16 12:20 PM (50.191.95.8)

The numbers from the models equals the forecasted position x hours after the model was run. So the dot nearest the number 96 would equal that models calculation where the storm center would be 4 days later. This time of year there is much greater chance you will see a parade of lows coming across the Atlantic from Africa. We have reached that point in the weather cycle now:



As November progresses the risk of these types of weather patterns greatly decreases. The time to have a boat in the Caribbean is from late November to May of the following year.


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StormJib
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Joined: 11/30/14
Posts: 1036
Re: September in The Caribbean [Re: GeorgeC1]
      #1705852 - 08/20/16 12:42 PM (50.191.95.8)

Here is a more current set of models where each dot represents 12 hours of time and the numbers near dots represent hours of time for the storm center to reach that dot:



The Yellow CMC2 Forecast Model would give the BVI North Winds and Swell in +/- 5 days. The Purple HWFI would deliver South winds and swell in 4-5 days. The point is for the next couple of weeks the weather may be unsettled across the Caribbean.


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TIMRIM
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Joined: 03/19/15
Posts: 203
Loc: Newport Beach, Ca
Re: September in The Caribbean [Re: GeorgeC1]
      #1705853 - 08/20/16 12:43 PM (23.110.11.57)

Go yellow

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StormJib
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Joined: 11/30/14
Posts: 1036
Re: September in The Caribbean [Re: GeorgeC1]
      #1705854 - 08/20/16 12:51 PM (50.191.95.8)

Here is one updated BVI wind forecast for 120 hours from now or Thursday:



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Sunnykm
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Joined: 01/18/15
Posts: 188
Loc: California
Re: September in The Caribbean [Re: GeorgeC1]
      #1705856 - 08/20/16 01:19 PM (71.195.127.67)

George thank you for post...now I see it is a storm track--I vote yellow, too

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Kmon
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Joined: 07/05/16
Posts: 116
Loc: Va Beach
Re: September in The Caribbean [Re: Sunnykm]
      #1705857 - 08/20/16 01:20 PM (24.253.150.123)

The numbers on each line represent the number of hours for the storm to reach that point on the line.

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tradewinds
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Joined: 09/21/06
Posts: 5055
Loc: An island state of mind
Re: September in The Caribbean [Re: Kmon]
      #1705858 - 08/20/16 01:26 PM (71.15.50.217)

There's a ton of Sahara dust behind it, which could help things out.

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