From Mike's Weather page, my go-to site for severe weather updates: "Overnight models continue to build more consistency on future path of Irma. She could skirt just north of the Lesser Antilles... with PR/DR/Haiti close... then the Bahamas/US? The Gulf is looking less of a threat each hour. The SE and east coast of U.S. not as much unfortunately. High pressure showing up more in recent runs blocking Irma and keeping her more NW. Lots to watch. She is expected to fluctuate in intensity but still be a major most the way."