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Eric_HillAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Irma, 9-5 8am advisory
      09/05/17 08:03 AM

Hurricane Irma Special Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and
forecast intensity of Irma.

NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have recently
measured peak flight-level winds of around 170 kt and SFMR winds
of around 150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity has
been increased to 150 kt, making Irma an extremely dangerous
category 5 hurricane. Some additional strengthening is still
possible, but fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next
couple of days due to eyewall replacement cycles.

No change was made to the previous track or wind radii forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as
an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane, accompanied by
life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings
are in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations
should be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are
expected to first arrive in the hurricane warning area later today.

2. Irma is also expected to affect the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane beginning
tomorrow, with life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and tropical-
storm-force winds are expected to arrive in these areas by early
tomorrow.

3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the
Bahamas, and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later
this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Irma and listen to advice given by officials.

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in
the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this
weekend. Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct
impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. However,
everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1200Z 16.7N 57.7W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.9W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.7N 61.5W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.6N 64.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 21.2N 72.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 22.4N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.0N 81.0W 130 KT 150 MPH

--------------------
Eric Hill
TTOL Shop

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* Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten Carol_HillAdministrator 09/04/17 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten Carol_HillAdministrator   09/05/17 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten SXMSAMMY   09/05/17 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten mmk   09/05/17 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten Phiaman42   09/05/17 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten PKwx   09/05/17 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten Marcheall   09/05/17 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten badbenni   09/05/17 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten jerber160   09/05/17 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten SXMWendell   09/05/17 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten cruzer   09/05/17 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten Marcheall   09/05/17 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten Carol_HillAdministrator   09/05/17 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten cruzer   09/05/17 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten Carol_HillAdministrator   09/05/17 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten moxie   09/05/17 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten Chicki   09/05/17 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten GaryV   09/05/17 08:27 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten BeachKitten   09/05/17 08:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten taraavo   09/05/17 08:46 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten BeachKitten   09/05/17 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten sasasal   09/05/17 08:46 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten kccouple   09/05/17 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irma, 9-5 8am advisory Eric_HillAdministrator   09/05/17 08:03 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irma, 9-5 8am advisory cathym   09/05/17 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irma, 9-5 8am advisory sparty   09/05/17 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irma, 9-5 8am advisory NJHarry   09/05/17 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irma, 9-5 8am advisory Cathyg   09/05/17 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irma, 9-5 8am advisory BobNLiz   09/05/17 08:14 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irma, 9-5 8am advisory luvitinsxm   09/05/17 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irma, 9-5 8am advisory RICKnGRACE_LI_NY   09/05/17 08:19 AM
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. * * Re: 5 am Tuesday Advisory SeaStar   09/05/17 10:25 AM
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. * * Re: 5 am Tuesday Advisory CSHAVNFUN   09/05/17 12:25 PM
. * * Re: 5 am Tuesday Advisory badbenni   09/05/17 03:30 PM
. * * Re: 5 am Tuesday Advisory kim   09/05/17 03:46 PM
. * * Re: 5 am Tuesday Advisory Carol_HillAdministrator   09/05/17 12:47 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten moxie   09/04/17 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten pat   09/04/17 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten Homebrew   09/04/17 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten wabid   09/04/17 01:56 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten RichnSandyNC   09/04/17 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten satch74   09/05/17 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten o2bnsxm   09/04/17 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten BerneandGary   09/04/17 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten BobVTPilot   09/05/17 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten CSHAVNFUN   09/05/17 12:28 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten Carol_HillAdministrator   09/05/17 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten CSHAVNFUN   09/05/17 11:54 AM
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. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten GaryV   09/05/17 02:16 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten LBI2SXM   09/05/17 07:51 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten ghjr   09/05/17 07:44 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten PelicanPirate   09/05/17 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten bksm   09/04/17 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten Bahston   09/04/17 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten mahokid   09/04/17 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten Carol_HillAdministrator   09/05/17 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten BeachKitten   09/05/17 08:27 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten Bluesfan   09/04/17 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten BerneandGary   09/04/17 10:35 PM
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. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten sasasal   09/04/17 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten Carol_HillAdministrator   09/04/17 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane WARNING for St. Martin/St. Maarten kim   09/04/17 11:31 AM

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