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Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: sasasal] #139077
09/02/2017 02:24 PM
09/02/2017 02:24 PM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 6,017
Long Island, New York
sxmmartini Offline OP
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sxmmartini  Offline OP
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Posts: 6,017
Long Island, New York
IMHO this will be a close call for SXM. I live on Long Island and have experienced Sandy. My biggest fear is a double Whammy ! First hitting SXM and Long Island New York with the same system.
This is a computer model that is driving me crazy!

September 10,2017 Hurricane IRMA <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Yikes.gif" alt="" />

[Linked Image]

SXM Sponsors
Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: sxmmartini] #139078
09/02/2017 02:37 PM
09/02/2017 02:37 PM
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 11,858
Peaceful Eastern North Carolin...
GaKaye Offline
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GaKaye  Offline
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Peaceful Eastern North Carolin...
I don't know where that model came from, but our local forecasters here in North Carolina are telling us that there are a lot of bogus forecasts out there. There's no way that anyone can predict what this hurricane will be doing over a week from now; and any predictions that involve the US are extremely premature, and probably fake.


[Linked Image]
Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: GaKaye] #139079
09/02/2017 05:05 PM
09/02/2017 05:05 PM
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 304
S
sasasal Offline
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sasasal  Offline
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Posts: 304
yea. lets hope its path now means very little. St.M. is getting all sorts of warning and told to pay close attention. Have friends that live on Island, and they say they have been alerted to start making preperations. that from those living there, not us living here... lets hope all is a waste... But precautions must be made non the less. ... If this track stays on cource? not good. period.

Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: sasasal] #139080
09/02/2017 05:09 PM
09/02/2017 05:09 PM
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 11,858
Peaceful Eastern North Carolin...
GaKaye Offline
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GaKaye  Offline
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Posts: 11,858
Peaceful Eastern North Carolin...
I'm not questioning the path that shows it heading towards St. Martin, but the "model" posted above that shows the storm over Long Island on September 10 is a bit ridiculous.


[Linked Image]
Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: GaKaye] #139081
09/02/2017 06:31 PM
09/02/2017 06:31 PM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 6,017
Long Island, New York
sxmmartini Offline OP
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sxmmartini  Offline OP
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Long Island, New York
[Linked Image]

Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: sxmmartini] #139082
09/02/2017 10:18 PM
09/02/2017 10:18 PM
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 34
New York, Vermont and St Maart...
Alysonma Offline
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Alysonma  Offline
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New York, Vermont and St Maart...
Talk about anything that could happen in 2011 I was in SXM and hurricane Irene pass just to the south of us. Then we left Saint Maarten got back to Long Island and hurricane Irene hit the New York area got to enjoy her twice

Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: Alysonma] #139083
09/03/2017 05:49 AM
09/03/2017 05:49 AM
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 1,464
Long Island, NY
RICKnGRACE_LI_NY Offline
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RICKnGRACE_LI_NY  Offline
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Long Island, NY
Storm Carib closest point map says 49 miles on Wednesday afternoon. Stay safe SXM


Rick and Grace
Moring Stuff About Irma's Position [Re: Alysonma] #139084
09/03/2017 05:50 AM
09/03/2017 05:50 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,775
New England (home), St. Maarte...
jmbcomms Offline
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jmbcomms  Offline
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Posts: 5,775
New England (home), St. Maarte...
She's moving SW now toward the islands. If that were to continue she'd slam into Barbuda head on. If she makes a slight turn... ugh. Hopefully she will turn right and head north of the island. No matter what this looks to be very, very close. If you're on the island, stock up and be ready - & Godspeed.

Last edited by jmbcomms; 09/03/2017 05:52 AM.

Jeff Berger
Visiting SXM Since 1978
Re: Hurricane IRMA [Re: RICKnGRACE_LI_NY] #139085
09/03/2017 07:16 AM
09/03/2017 07:16 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 66,292
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Central Florida!
Yes, scary close!! I hope she goes north sooner...


Carol Hill
Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position [Re: jmbcomms] #139086
09/03/2017 07:17 AM
09/03/2017 07:17 AM
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 304
S
sasasal Offline
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sasasal  Offline
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Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 304
No way is this good!!! This monster even close will cause damage... I am sure people on Island are watching this very close. Spoke to a rental agency friend of mine on Island, and she just kept saying!!! This is terrible... Stay safe people...

Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position [Re: sasasal] #139087
09/03/2017 07:27 AM
09/03/2017 07:27 AM
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 3,195
Massachusetts
boucharda Offline
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boucharda  Offline
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Massachusetts
Yup...not nice. 110mph..moving W/SW. Looks like late Tuesday into Wednesday morning

[Linked Image]

Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position [Re: sasasal] #139088
09/03/2017 07:50 AM
09/03/2017 07:50 AM
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 158
Philly
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PKwx Offline
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PKwx  Offline
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Philly
This is not the time for conjecture from arm chair meteorologists. At some point a single model or even a single model run is going to display a disaster scenario at sometime for someone. The forecast put out the the NHC are based on many model runs and model types, model performance history and the lasted data. A team of Hurricane meteorologists and scientists deliberate and come to consensus on the forecast because lives and economies are at stake based on their forecasts. There is reason why their forecast only goes out 5-days and they draw an uncertainty cone. They are not media weather announcers or meteorologist looking to say I got the location of the landfall right before anybody else.

Just read the technical forecast discussion that goes into the forecast http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/030849.shtml?

Yes, it looks ominous for St Martin and preparation is advised. But still a lot of uncertainty as to the radius of effect as its such a compact storm. The East Coast, the odds the US is in play verses going out to sea are increasing. Its the peak of Hurricane season, we should be prepared, plan and have a Plan B but not panic.

Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position [Re: PKwx] #139089
09/03/2017 08:15 AM
09/03/2017 08:15 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 66,292
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Central Florida!
I don't blame anyone who owns property on the island, or anyone who cares deeply about the island or it's people, for being pretty freaked right now. People can only prepare as best as they can and hope and pray this thing passes them by.


Carol Hill
Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position [Re: Carol_Hill] #139090
09/03/2017 09:58 AM
09/03/2017 09:58 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 2,343
MIA
I
irina Offline
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irina  Offline
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MIA
It's pretty bad on island. Nerves are frayed. Preparations are moving along quite briskly.
Trees are being trimmed, boats in dry dock etc.
Fingers crossed.
<img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Sad.gif" alt="" />

Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position [Re: irina] #139091
09/03/2017 10:11 AM
09/03/2017 10:11 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 11,503
Eric_Hill Offline

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Eric_Hill  Offline

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Posts: 11,503
Yes keep fingers crossed. The next 72 hours should determine a lot of things, based on the 11am NHC information.

From the NHC:
Quote
A strong high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic is steering
Irma west-southwestward or 255/12 kt. This general motion with
some reduction in forward speed is expected during the next day or
so. After that time, Irma is forecast to turn westward, then
west-northwestward in about 72 hours as it approaches the western
portion of the ridge.


and

Quote
While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the guidance suggests it
should grow in size during the next 72 h. This will affect how soon
watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward and Virgin
Islands, and interests on those islands should continue to monitor
Irma's progress.


Eric Hill
TTOL Sponsors
Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position [Re: Eric_Hill] #139092
09/03/2017 10:58 AM
09/03/2017 10:58 AM
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 10,211
GJ, CO S/V Long Overdue
sail2wind Offline
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sail2wind  Offline
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Posts: 10,211
GJ, CO S/V Long Overdue
I can tell you the boating community is seriously gearing up. The SXM Facebook boating page is all lit up.

Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position [Re: sasasal] #139093
09/03/2017 11:05 AM
09/03/2017 11:05 AM
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 3,612
Oyster Pond St. Martin
S
soualigacapt Offline
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Oyster Pond St. Martin
Don't forget what happened with Gonzalo. It's any one's guess about when and how strong it will be. 1 Hour before passing it can change direction and either pass us or make a direct hit. Always be prepared, not like so may did not for Gonzolo.

Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position [Re: soualigacapt] #139094
09/03/2017 11:29 AM
09/03/2017 11:29 AM
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 272
Kent Island Maryland
Jim_Laraine Offline
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Jim_Laraine  Offline
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Kent Island Maryland
Island 92 radio does a tropical weather update at 9am, 11am and 5pm daily which can be listened to live. Probably not much new meteorological info here but you do get an idea of the mood on the island, obviously through the opinion of the announcer.

http://island92.com/

Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position [Re: sail2wind] #139095
09/03/2017 11:30 AM
09/03/2017 11:30 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 11,503
Eric_Hill Offline

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Eric_Hill  Offline

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Makes perfect sense, and we will not even talk about that little thing that has come off africa. <img src="http://65.246.19.145/forums/images/graemlins/Yikes.gif" alt="" />


Eric Hill
TTOL Sponsors
Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position [Re: Eric_Hill] #139096
09/03/2017 11:33 AM
09/03/2017 11:33 AM
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 334
Pittsburgh, PA
jerber160 Offline
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jerber160  Offline
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Posts: 334
Pittsburgh, PA
I praying everyone will be safe. I'm also wondering about the market ladies and how they're gearing up or battening down.

Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position [Re: jerber160] #139097
09/03/2017 02:55 PM
09/03/2017 02:55 PM
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 304
S
sasasal Offline
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sasasal  Offline
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Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 304
Ok. just saw updated weather on Irma. As of this evening they will post warnings for the leeward Islands. It is on a track that could hit directly or very close. Either way??? We need a huge change here. My Love of Island, its people, my longtime friends, my home away from home, we are with you . Please stay safe... stuff means nothing, lives mean everything... People on St.M. we are hugging you tight. I hope you can feel it....

Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position [Re: sasasal] #139098
09/03/2017 03:31 PM
09/03/2017 03:31 PM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 6,017
Long Island, New York
sxmmartini Offline OP
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sxmmartini  Offline OP
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Long Island, New York
[Linked Image]

This is NOT an official forecast but just a computer model run.

Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: sxmmartini] #139099
09/03/2017 04:12 PM
09/03/2017 04:12 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 66,292
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 66,292
Central Florida!
Be careful, everyone!!


Carol Hill
Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: Carol_Hill] #139100
09/03/2017 05:34 PM
09/03/2017 05:34 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 3,077
Kennys Offline
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Kennys  Offline
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Posts: 3,077
Thanks and it's Luis anniversary. But our first home was totally solid then and we spent a whole month off Island. Our second is also totally solid. Prayers for the flooding.

Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: Kennys] #139101
09/03/2017 05:47 PM
09/03/2017 05:47 PM
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 11,820
Brookfield, CT.
pat Offline
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pat  Offline
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Posts: 11,820
Brookfield, CT.
Keeping my fingers crossed for you and for all the people of the island. With each local update here, it looks worse and worse for the island. Lots of prayers and good wishes coming your way. This is one time I truly hope and pray our forecasters have gotten it wrong again.

And to all the vacationers who have never seen the devastation a major storm can do across the island, please be smart and be safe and don't allow yourselves to let your guard down with regard to this storm. Hunker down in your resort and be safe.

And lastly, if you can get a flight out ahead of it, even if it's coming only remotely near the island, DO SO ASAP and don't let yourself get stuck there. I wish I could remember how many days the airport was closed during Luis but it was a wait for those there trying to get out and for those islanders away trying to get back home again. If the storm should come across the island you are pretty much on your own. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" />

Last edited by pat; 09/03/2017 08:02 PM.

Respectfully,

pat



"Always keep your words soft and sweet, just in case you have to eat
them."
Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: Kennys] #139102
09/03/2017 06:38 PM
09/03/2017 06:38 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 66,292
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Posts: 66,292
Central Florida!
Best wishes to you and everyone on island..


Carol Hill
Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: pat] #139103
09/03/2017 06:41 PM
09/03/2017 06:41 PM
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 7,124
SXMWendell Offline
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SXMWendell  Offline
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Being through a hurricane on island. Get off at all costs BEFORE it arrives. Don't make excuses of not leaving. Because after the hurricane/ storm your vacation is finished anyhow. If that is not possible, fill the car with gas, buy non perishable food to eat,buy a lot of bottled water, buy a multi band radio to listen to weather updates so you have an idea of whats going on, buy a couple of flashlights AND buy a lot of batteries to power them.

Even after the hurricane goes through you will not get on the next flight out. The airlines will put the persons from the canceled flights on empty seats available on the post flights leaving the island. And since most flights are full now days this could take a while to get off the island.

I was lucky enough to have a closet with concrete walls in the middle of the villa I was at to ride through the hurricane.

video here

Wendell

Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: SXMWendell] #139104
09/03/2017 06:49 PM
09/03/2017 06:49 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 66,292
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Posts: 66,292
Central Florida!
Wendell--Thanks. I don't remember seeing that video before. Where were you staying?


Carol Hill
Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: Carol_Hill] #139105
09/03/2017 06:51 PM
09/03/2017 06:51 PM
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 7,124
SXMWendell Offline
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SXMWendell  Offline
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Posts: 7,124
At Monte Vista

Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: pat] #139106
09/03/2017 06:56 PM
09/03/2017 06:56 PM
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 780
Toronto Canada
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moxie Offline
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Toronto Canada
This is byond scary. My prayers also going to all.

Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: moxie] #139107
09/03/2017 07:51 PM
09/03/2017 07:51 PM
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 7,124
SXMWendell Offline
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What is interesting is, if you want to see a dynamic minute to minute of where the storm is. Watch the marinetraffic.com site and see where the ships aren't. There is a void of ships where the hurricane is.

Wendell

Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: moxie] #139108
09/03/2017 08:22 PM
09/03/2017 08:22 PM
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 402
DavidinChelseaMA Offline
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DavidinChelseaMA  Offline
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Posts: 402
Island 92 just stated that on Wednesday morning, "in the wee hours until the afternoon" the storm will be heading west, just to the north of SXM, at approx 78 miles away. The reason that number - 78 - is important, is that the hurricane force winds extend approximately 35 miles out from the center, so 78 miles is too far away, by a little more than double, for the storm to actually [b][b][/b][/b]impact with hurricane force wind. Granted, storms wobble, and everybody still needs to be PREPARED, but this is certainly a very reasonable glimmer of hope that the island may only experience tropical force wind. This being said, there is still a HURRICANE WATCH in effect, so, to repeat: be prepared and stay safe.

Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: SXMWendell] #139109
09/03/2017 08:43 PM
09/03/2017 08:43 PM
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 4,200
here and there ...
Rasputin Offline
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Rasputin  Offline
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here and there ...
Quote
SXMWendell said:
Being through a hurricane on island. Get off at all costs BEFORE it arrives. Don't make excuses of not leaving. Because after the hurricane/ storm your vacation is finished anyhow. If that is not possible, fill the car with gas, buy non perishable food to eat,buy a lot of bottled water, buy a multi band radio to listen to weather updates so you have an idea of whats going on, buy a couple of flashlights AND buy a lot of batteries to power them.

Even after the hurricane goes through you will not get on the next flight out. The airlines will put the persons from the canceled flights on empty seats available on the post flights leaving the island. And since most flights are full now days this could take a while to get off the island.

I was lucky enough to have a closet with concrete walls in the middle of the villa I was at to ride through the hurricane.

video here

Wendell



My unsolicited advice, to agree with but add to Wendell's post:

If power goes out, credit cards may not work, if you don't have cash, go to an ATM and get some now.

If power goes off for an extended period of time, then there will be no water pressure, which means no water! As Wendell said, buy bottled water now; but also, if you have a bathtub where you are staying, fill it with tap water now... you can use that water to put a bucket full in the toilet so it flushes! Without water, toilets do not flush, that can be a problem after a major storm.

Wendell mentions non perishable food. OK maybe a loaf of bread that will get mold after a few days.....
Don't forget peanut butter and crackers... you would be amazed how long you can live off of that. Maybe add some bananas and nuts....
you have to think no electricity which means no refrigeration. If you have a gas or charcoal grill, freeze some hamburgers or hot dogs to use later.

And as Wendell mentioned: flashlights and batteries.

That's my 2 cents worth, for all on island, be safe.


Rah Rah Rasputin
They put some poison into his wine
He drank it all and said "I feel fine"
Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: Rasputin] #139110
09/03/2017 08:47 PM
09/03/2017 08:47 PM
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 11,820
Brookfield, CT.
pat Offline
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pat  Offline
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Brookfield, CT.
The tent camper in me says great suggestions, Raspy, and particularly regarding the cash vs CC's vs ATMs. During hurricane Hugo many of the banks in SC were closed for weeks and cash was truly king to those who had the foresight to stock up on it. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" />


Respectfully,

pat



"Always keep your words soft and sweet, just in case you have to eat
them."
Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: Rasputin] #139111
09/03/2017 09:03 PM
09/03/2017 09:03 PM
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 7,124
SXMWendell Offline
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SXMWendell  Offline
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Ironically with Bertha. The phone system worked. The owner of the villa tried to get on island. Made it to Florida but couldn't get any farther. So I kept him apprised of the state of the villa. As I had much time on my hands I did alot of cleaning up ( got me a free week stay next trip) Also in his utility room he had a fridge full of Heineken. I save them from getting hot. Breakfast, lunch, dinner of champions ( so they say).

Also even if the airport has generators that doesn't mean that the reservations systems will be working.

Wendell

Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: sxmmartini] #139112
09/03/2017 09:43 PM
09/03/2017 09:43 PM
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 1,003
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PelicanPirate Offline
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I'm no meterologist but if you draw a straight line between Cape Verde off Africa to SXM, the hurricane is right on that straight line and has been since yesterday.

Prepare for high winds and heavy seas and be safe everyone.

Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: PelicanPirate] #139113
09/04/2017 06:01 AM
09/04/2017 06:01 AM
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 1,464
Long Island, NY
RICKnGRACE_LI_NY Offline
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Long Island, NY
This morning Storm Carib closest point tool has Irma 23 miles. That is way too close for comfort. My guess is if you haven't gotten out by now, you're probably not going to be able to.

There's a lot of good advice given above. Pay attention to it and please stay safe. Prayers are with you all, both Islanders and Vacationers.


Rick and Grace
Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: RICKnGRACE_LI_NY] #139114
09/04/2017 06:38 AM
09/04/2017 06:38 AM
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 272
Kent Island Maryland
Jim_Laraine Offline
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Jim_Laraine  Offline
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Kent Island Maryland
At least if Irma passes on the NE side of the island, the forward motion of the storm will subtract from the counterclockwise wind rotation (for northern hemisphere). Might not help much but definitely do not want a pass on the SW side which would increase effective wind speed.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html

Last edited by Jim_Laraine; 09/04/2017 06:40 AM.
Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: RICKnGRACE_LI_NY] #139115
09/04/2017 06:45 AM
09/04/2017 06:45 AM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 197
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Joined: May 2011
Posts: 197
Too late to get out now, much easier decision when you're not here on vacation. Super U was crazy busy on Saturday with people buying provisions. Besides our own well being,
realized what all our island friends have to lose.
Have about five days of food and hope that the sea generator functions. Got a good book to read and that paperwork that never seems to get done.
Grand Case was deserted late night. Concerned for all the restaurant owners, It would be devastating to have damage to your restaurant especially the Orient beach bars that have been through all the hoopla just to get back up and running.

Prayers to all on the island.

Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin [Re: mahokid] #139116
09/04/2017 07:05 AM
09/04/2017 07:05 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 66,292
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
Traveler
Carol_Hill  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 66,292
Central Florida!
Take care, stay safe! Please let us know how you are, if you can.


Carol Hill
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