Maria is now officially a Hurricane.

St. Maarten / St. Martin are under a "Hurricane Watch".


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/162038.shtml

Looks like the "Eye" of this storm is aimed at Guadeloupe. SXM may be spared the worst of this thing but it will still be a problem.

Currently, Hurricane force winds only extend 15 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical Storm force winds extend out 105 miles from the center. Maria closest approach to SXM is 95.1 miles Tuesday night at 8:54 pm.

It is fortunate that SXM is now projected only tropical force winds or less...but...the storm is strengthening and that could change before Tuesday.

As someone who went through back-to-back hurricanes in Eastern North Carolina in the late 1990s, the concern for SXM will be flying debris. 2 x 4s can become projectiles and do some serious damage. Injury to persons will be a concern.

Hopefully we can get even a slight turn to the south, a few miles may make a big difference here.

Maria Will Impact Martinique, Dominica & Guadeloupe As A Major Hurricane This Afternoon Through Tonight Into Tuesday Morning; Maria Is Expected To Directly Impact Puerto Rico As A Category 4 Or Category 5 Hurricane On Wednesday Leading To Catastrophic Damage Across Puerto Rico

Major Hurricane Maria:
8 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 14.6 North Latitude, 59.7 West Longitude or about 85 miles to the east of Martinique.
Maximum Winds: 115 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 966 Millibars or 28.56 Inches.
Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 12 mph.

Given the extremely serious threat Maria poses to the eastern and northeastern Caribbean, I am only going to write about Maria in this discussion. In addition, Jose is falling apart this morning and seems to be quickly transitioning from a purely tropical system that will resemble a nor'easter. For the latest information on Jose, GO HERE.

So, let's get right into discussing Major Hurricane Maria:

Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Maria is quickly strengthening this morning with a central barometric pressure of 966 millibars and maximum winds of 115 mph. The environmental conditions are forecast to be very favorable for strengthening for the next few days. In fact, the intensity guidance shows a significant chance for rapid intensification with a 50-55 percent chance for Maria to strengthen from a 115 mph hurricane to a 140-150 mph hurricane in just the next 24 hours. This is extremely concerning for the islands of Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe as major hurricane impacts are likely beginning this afternoon and continuing through tonight into Tuesday morning. Also, I have grave concerns that the island of Puerto Rico will be directly impacted by a Category 4 or even a Category 5 hurricane on Wednesday.

Maria is currently tracking to the west-northwest and this motion will take the core of the hurricane right over Martinique and Dominica this evening. This west-northwest to northwest track will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday leading to Maria tracking directly across Puerto Rico during the day on Wednesday bringing catastrophic damage.

The level of uncertainty as to where Maria will track after it moves over Puerto Rico is extremely high as there are many different factors that will play into Maria's track from late this week through this weekend and into next week.

The first factor is how much will Jose break down the large ridge of high pressure that will be positioned across the northeastern United States. The model guidance have been forecasting that Jose will remain strong enough to break down the high pressure ridge leading to these model guidance members kicking Maria away from the US East Coast. Given how quickly Jose is falling apart this morning – much quicker than what the guidance have been suggesting – I have my doubts that Jose will be able to break down the high pressure ridge enough to guide Maria to the north and northeast.

The second factor is the strength of the western Atlantic high pressure ridge. I have concerns that the model guidance may be under forecasting the strength of the high pressure ridge and that in the end it will be stronger than what the guidance currently suggests. A stronger high pressure ridge would lead to Maria being pushed further west much closer to the US East Coast than what the European and GFS model guidance suggests.

A third possible factor is that some of the guidance are forecasting that a weak upper level trough of low pressure may form over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. If we do see this upper level trough form, it could help to kick Maria away from the US East Coast.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that the model guidance may be over forecasting Jose's influence and I think that Jose will fall apart much quicker than what the guidance suggests. Also, we have seen with both Irma and Jose that the guidance seems to initially forecast too weak of a western Atlantic high pressure ridge. I have concerns that we may see the same situation here with Maria and that we may see the model guidance gradually forecast a stronger high pressure system and in turn a further west track of Maria than what most of the guidance currently suggests.

Bottom line is that I think that the model guidance may be pulling Maria away from the US East Coast too quickly and too prematurely. My thinking is that we may see a direct impact on the Turks and Caicos Islands and the eastern Bahamas this weekend followed by a track that takes Maria extremely close to the US East Coast, especially from South Carolina to southern New England from next Monday to next Wednesday.

With that said, the track forecast for Maria this weekend into next week has a very high level of uncertainty and very low amount of confidence. I urge everyone across the Bahamas and along the US East Coast to keep extremely close tabs on the track forecast of Maria in the coming days.

Forecast Impacts For The Lesser Antilles:
Wind: Winds of 120 mph or more are expected across Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe from late this afternoon through tonight into early Tuesday morning leading to major damage. Tropical storm force winds with wind gusts of up to 80 mph are expected from this evening through the overnight hours of tonight through all day Tuesday across St. Lucia, Antigua, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Maarten and Anguilla.

Storm Surge: A storm surge of 6 to 8 feet are expected across the islands of Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe from late this afternoon through tonight. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves on top of the surge.

A storm surge of 4 to 6 feet are expected across the rest of the northern Leeward Islands tonight into Tuesday.

Rainfall: Total rainfall amounts from today to Wednesday of 10 to 20 inches are expected across the central and southern Leeward Islands and 5 to 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash floods and mudslides.

Forecast Impacts For Puerto Rico:
Wind: Catastrophic winds of 130 to 150 mph are forecast across the entire island of Puerto Rico during the day on Wednesday. This has the potential to be the strongest hurricane Puerto Rico has seen since at least Hugo and the impacts from Maria could actually be worse than Hugo.

The core of a Category 4 or even a Category 5 hurricane is forecast to move right over Puerto Rico on Wednesday. This will be one of the strongest, if not the strongest, hurricanes on record to impact you. Please take this hurricane extremely seriously and be ready for an extremely destructive hurricane impact.

Tropical storm force winds are currently expected across all of the US and British Virgin Islands on Wednesday and across much of the Dominican Republic on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Storm Surge: A storm surge of up to 10 feet are expected across Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

Rainfall: Total rainfall amounts from Tuesday night to Thursday of 10 to 20 inches are expected across Puerto Rico and the U.S. & British Virgin Islands. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash floods and mudslides.

(Shared with permission)

Dear god, there will be nothing left of the entire Caribbean, let alone poor SXM...

As of 11 AST position, the forecasted closest point of approach to SXM is now 107.2 miles at 10:00 pm on Tuesday, 9/19/17.

Looks like subscription only content from a place like Crown Weather Services.

I just noticed your header to your post. I was right, it is from Crown. Good outfit.

Maria is now a Cat 4 based on TV reports.

I'm afraid Maria is now a Cat 5!

Yeah I saw that. Harvey and Irma and now followed by a Cat 5. Speculation is that SXM won't get slammed, but a bunch of other islands will.

I wonder if 2017 can be put into historical perspective?

Just an FYI for everyone:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/162038.shtml

OMG, what is happening to my beloved Caribbean?? After Maria, what will be left? Praying tonight for all the people in the path of this storm and those who have already been in the destructive path of Irma the monster.

http://www.stormcarib.com/closest.cgi

It seems to be getting closer.

Can you imagine being evacuated to Guadaloupe only to be hit by another Cat 5 hurricane? Those poor people.

According to Storm Carib Maria is passing 103 miles from SXM now. Is there any contact about what is going on as we speak. Ant imaging another monster so close in time and space. A storm this size 100 miles seems way too close

Laser 101 FM radio has been speaking with people calling in from areas around the island-heavy rain, winds and rough surf.

And the AUC is now being used as a shelter since students/faculty are gone. On radio, saying people are walking out of the Hillside School (another shelter) with computers.