Jeff Masters blog

Although this year is predicted to be below normal, traditionally this is about the time that the Atlantic hurricane season heats up. 96L may be one to watch.

Pretty much right on schedule. Time to start sweating out every thunderstorm that rolls out of Africa for the next six weeks. This one is almost certain to become a "depression" during the next few days. If it grows to a "tropical storm" it will become "Danny".

hope it brings us some rain, but not too much at one time.

Yes, a small tropical storm would bring some welcome rain to most anywhere in the Caribbean..

96L is up to 90% chance of forming as of the 2 AM run, so it looks like we will have depression at the very least out of this.

There is also a chance for a small wave coming in the next 36 hours which hopefully will bring some rain.

Meanwhile...this latest tracking from Storm Pulse (free with a linkedin free account)

NOAA to issue advisories at 11:00 EST on Tropical Depression 4 in the East Central Atlantic.

Will be become Tropical Storm "Danny" during the next 24 hours. They are looking for Danny to become a hurricane sometime Thursday or Friday with winds building to 100 mph by Sunday.

Just been classified as a tropical storm:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
2015 ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 37.5W
ABOUT 1595 MI...2565 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 37.5 West. Danny is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the
west is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Danny is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

Praying for enough rain to help the island but please, Lord, let it end there!! Like everyone else, I hate to think of the possible potential damage of these storms and the havoc they can wreak on our beloved island, not to mention what they can do to the long awaited plans of so many vacationers. Let's hope it's only a day or two of much needed rain but only gentle accompanying tradewind breezes. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" />

Pat, from your lips to God's ears! Agree with you 100%.
Let SXM stay safe! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" /> BobD

Amen!

Not sure if this animation will work, but StormSurfing.com tropics has it coming straight into the upper islands.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=atlatrop_slp

Yes, it worked. Yikes!!!

StormCarib is predicting the closest point of approach at approximately 300 miles from SXM, but that is forecast for next Tuesday, which is a long ways away from now.

As of 11 am EDT, the official track is below. Although, there can be a 225 nm error in the forecasted track, effects will start to be felt Monday if this track holds up.

I think it is going to go south of us but you never know

Barbara I hope you're correct. I finally get a storm named after me(not sure if that's an honor or not, LOL), and it's going to the islands a week before me. Something wrong with this picture.
But as others have said, maybe it will drop a lot of needed rain and then just fizzle out. Danny (sumbeach)

The second site has it passing well to the south of SXM and the first just north.

The latest advisory has it dropping below hurricane strength before reaching the islands. I do hope that maybe this storm might be the impetus of a decent amount of rain (and nothing else..)