Crown Weather: Tropical Development Possible Next Week

Rob Lightbown, chief honcho of private weather forecasting company Crown Weather, has been saying the coming hurricane season may be front loaded and most recently said tropical development is possible in May. This morning he said this: "The reason for beginning issuing our regular tropical weather discussions over one month before the official start of the Hurricane Season is because we have identified an area that may be of interest in terms of possible tropical development late next week into next weekend. The geographic area is east of the Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico. While tropical development in this area is a possibility, it is definitely not a sure thing."

Here we go, folks....

Doesn't sound like that would affect St. Maarten--at least I hope not as I will be on island then.

I feel like its going to be a long season this year!

We'll be there week after next, but as you say; I don't think that will affect St. Martin.

The only invest is near Guam so I think this is not of interest to SXM....

The weather models are projecting the Colombian low to reform, extending northward to Cuba by the end of next week. This diffuse area of low pressure will be centered over Jamaica and Eastern Cuba by the weekend of May 5th. Any tropical formation is just conjecture at this point. The models are just that - best guesses

Actually it could. IF it develops, Rob Lightbown (chief honcho of Crown Weather) is now predicting heavy rains and flash flooding in SXM starting next Friday through next weekend.

We live in Maryland in the southeastern exurbs of Washington DC. For years our favorite local TV weather guy was Senior Meteorologist Doug Hill on WJLA, now retired.

Doug's forecasts were usually spot on, and ALWAYS included his personal caution: " Any forecast beyond three days from now is nothing more than a guess.!"

T'was true then, is still true today...

Remember Doug Hill very well! (No relation, by the way!) Excellent forecaster!!

Of course, he retired as a Calvert County guy. Had the station build him a studio in his basement so that he could broadcast from home!

Disagree; the science is far better now, and usually Rob is spot on...

Disturbance Over the Bahamas: 10% Chance of Development...

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/disturbance-over-bahamas-10-chance-development

Ten percent is nothing.

Was rainy yesterday but today starting off better.

Seas are pretty rough, but the sun is shining!

RL called this one early...

http://crownweather.com/index.php/author/rob/

This FB weather group is very strong on facts, if you would like to track tropical storms.

https://www.facebook.com/AtlanticWe...tgi9FoDydvY1Wgqv6Tznv6sUp1PM&fref=nf