Tropical storm warning issued

This invest 92L is way far from the islands but should be watched for further development ...

https://www.thedailyherald.sx/islands/tropical-weather-outlook-35

This is a model forecast...

Doesn't say much.

It actually says a lot. Its the HWRF model for Thursday morning that shows the eye of the storm crossing over the island. It also shows the storm's strength at 976 mb which would equate to a category 2 hurricane. Way too early to say yet as its still a tropical wave. Should not really focus on one model prediction though. The official 72 NHC forecast map still has it as a tropical wave on Wednesday, but does say possible tropical cyclone.

I have no idea what that model forecast means either, but SXM doesn't need another blow, of any nature...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

Dr. Soc has some recorded info from Crown Weather regarding this system, not quite as bad a prediction as some have been.

Link

Interesting that they are saying that weather predictions are more sketchy these days because of lack of data from airline traffic.

🤞

From the Government web page one hour aro.
"** SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN **
DATE ISSUED: Monday, July 27 2020
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure, approximately 1000 miles east-southeast of St Maarten, has become a little less organized since last night (Sunday night). However, environmental conditions are still expected to become favorable for development and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form within the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and could begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday or Wednesday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
** Due to the high likelihood of cyclone formation, a tropical storm watch could be issued for St Maarten.
A small craft advisory, flash flood advisory and severe wind advisory could go into effect for St. Maarten from Wednesday morning.
* Residents and motorists in areas prone to flooding and rock falls should be vigilant and avoid these areas whenever possible.
* Sea users and persons with interests along the coast should exercise extreme caution and secure their property. All sea users and persons close to the sea should make plans to take necessary action.
The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten will continue to monitor the progress of this system and keep the public updated accordingly.
Members of the public are advised to monitor the updates of this system."

Great discussion from the Capital Weather Gang on the storm and the uncertainty of its strength and track. Bottom line: odds are if it crosses SXM it will be a low to moderate tropical storm. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/07/27/new-tropical-storm-is-likely-form-atlantic-hyperactive-hurricane-season-continues/?hpid=hp_national1-8-12_tropicalstorm123p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans&itid=hp_national1-8-12_tropicalstorm123p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

This 92L is a huge system that might be a good thing. It will take longer for this system to develop and get a strong center of circulation. It will pass over SXM still a mess but after that it could be a monster!

https://www.thedailyherald.sx/islands/tropical-weather-outlook-800-am-edt-tue-jul-28-2020

Waiting for NHC any minute now with up to date info.

From the National Hurricane Center in Miami (they did spell St Maarten incorrectly and for sake of quoting I am leaving their error)

If you're not aware of it, Storm Carib has an interesting graphic, showing how close a particular storm is projected to come to a particular island. Usually it needs to be a named storm, to have it pre-filled in, but potential tropical cyclone 9 is filled in now.

Link to Storm Carib

Carol, not looking good for Montserrat. Projecting to pass within 6 miles. I was there a couple years ago, and they do't need anymore destruction. Beautiful place.

Fortunately will probably only be a tropical storm as it passes there, but flooding could cause some massive landslides there..

Yes people are panicking unnecessarily . We have had a lot of these Tropical storms in the past . Flooding because of lots of rain.

Technically not a named storm yet, but government has advised businesses that they should close by 11 AM today.

Link

WOW... PJIA reported a wind gust of 46 mph and possible rainfall 2-4 inches!!!! Send in the MILITARY! Shelter in place and if someone coughs run!

https://www.thedailyherald.sx/islands/business-closures-advised-at-11-00am

We closed the house up before bed last night. This morning, opened it all up again and enjoying having a nice breeze through the house and some rain squalls. So far.

Maho beach cam

doesn't look too bad right now.

Stay safe, everyone!

Sunset beach cam not showing much wave action.
http://sunsetsxm.com/plane-info/

Pretty low key so far..............

Other side of the island is getting the worst of it, but it's still ok. Bright sunshine just now!

Any cameras from the other side?

Non that I know of. What there was got wiped out by Irma.

Not aware of any French side cams. Never replaced post irma

Check out this image, zoom in

Accuweather link

The system is large and there is some talk that it might split in two. One system going thru the Mona Passage in a similar track of Dorian and the second system into the GOM (Gulf of Mexico)??????

All is well now . Blessings .

Thank you for the update. Have a peaceful night sleep! The sun will come out tomorrow!

Glad to hear everything is OK.

Tropical storm warning discontinued. Looks like SXM escaped that one... But there's another 'x' coming off of Africa..

Some pictures of minor damage today in the Daily Herald.

Link

Looks like that is the construction fence along Royal Palm.

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/...e-hurricane-strength-as-it-nears-florida Look closer to home!

https://www.thedailyherald.sx/islands/weather-system-drops-almost-2-inches-of-rain