AA Flight Reliability?

I'm considering flying from RDU to SXM midweek, as the fares are much lower. We'll be Flying American, and connecting through MIA or CLT. What I don't want to happen is for the flight to be canceled last minute, as I'd lose the money I pay for our first couple of days lodging. Hoping by November that the Covid situation will be under control and testing won't be an issue. I've looked up flights on Flight Aware, and am not really able to find performance history on the flights; I thought I had seen that in the past. I do know that the Tuesday MIA/SXM flight last year was canceled, but that it did fly on Wednesday (friends were on that flight). Does anyone here know how I can find that information? Thanks for any help!

GaKaye, if you are flying American, "'on time info is listed on each flight in the Details, when making reservations, on the American Airlines site.

That information isn't there for the MIA/SXM flights I'm looking at.

Try calling AA and ask that question. They might have the answer you're looking for.

On time info relates to flights that were not cancelled

Exactly. It looks like they are operating that flight from MIA to SXM every day now, but November may be quite different than January. Still haven't made a decision...

I would guess it also has to do with the flight number and not the day of week as well. Predicting what will happen in May would be a stretch in a normal year, November and this year would be near impossible to predict. Although I would be on changes.

Todd, I was hoping you'd chime in on this. I did look up the flight number, and now it seems to be running seven days a week. As you say though, what will happen in November is impossible to predict. We still haven't made a decision; there are just so very many variables.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL1136

Here is an example of what flightaware can show for a flight number. In this case the Miami run seems to succeed most days.

You can buy more data and run some statistics/odds.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL2478

CLT - SXM

Aloha, I did my best to copy and paste and edit out the fluff but this is off of a site I use (pathfinder) for shipping cargo via air, which is what I do. It is all based on the flight number and does not specify based on the day of the week. If the flight number changes then the stats start over, note that this is based on 44 flights so guessing that is how long that flight number has been used. This last year passenger loads have been way off, so flight consistency has been off as well. Who knows what what will change after today and when the point of unrestricted travel will be. I don't think this is a copyright violation, if it is I apologize.

Type of Flight Non-stop Flight
Route MIA (Miami, FL) → SXM (Sint Maarten, SX)
Total Transit Time 2h 57m
Connections None
Stops None

AA #1136
Carrier American Airlines (AA)
Equipment Boeing 737-800 Passenger (738)
Service Sched Passenger / Normal Service

Flight Rating: 3.45
Flights 44
On Time 37 84%
Delayed 15+ 5 11%
Delayed 30+ 1 2%
Delayed 45+ 0 0%
Diverted 0 0%
Cancelled 1 2%

Avg Delay 14 min
Max Delay 36 min
Std Dev 11 min


MIA (Miami, FL) SXM (Sint Maarten, SX)
Wed, Nov-17-21
10:30 Wed, Nov-17-21
14:27
No Forecast Available No Forecast Available

Thank you Todd! That's very helpful.

While it's impossible to know what will be going on in November, I believe things will be much closer to normal by then. Having said that, I live in Georgia and have been traveling to St. Maarten annually (or more) for 25 years--almost always going through Miami and only occasionally through Charlotte. Having studied flights and fares religiously for those 25 plus years, I can tell you that Miami is AA's primary gateway to St. Maarten (for connecting flights) with Charlotte second. So I would be more comfortable with a flight going through Miami as they won't likely be cancelled unless something really unusual is going on. Only other consideration is they might have two flights scheduled from Miami each day (which is normal during normal times) that might be consolidated into one flight if planes are not full. But if things are anywhere close to normal by November, I expect there to be at least one flight out of Miami each day and possibly two. Personally, I would not hesitate to book now a flight through Miami for November (or Charlotte for that matter). But you should do what you are comfortable doing. PM me if you have other questions.

Thank you for your insight. I too hope that things will be much more normal by November!