Hurricane Dorian

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents

Well, September is almost here

Going south. No problem

Hopefully no problem for the BVIs and SXM. Fingers crossed.

Not far enough south for me to have a warm and fuzzy at this point.

I thought Irma was going south too.....

It is pretty early to be predicting the exact path of Dorian.

For Safety :

There are indicators that we would add into our personal planning, especially in September, and October in the Caribbean. ( September Remember ).

One indicator is the warmer temps of the ocean which feeds the power of a hurricane. That water has been heating up all summer .

As to the path of Dorian, there is also the Coriolis Effect due the the spinning of the planet. In the northern hemisphere,
the Coriolis Effect tends to deflect objects to the right. And it is important in regard to cyclonic weather systems.
Look at the predicted path of Dorian, and it will show it will curve ....that is the Coriolis Effect.

They usually veer to toward the north .

As to hurricanes , again that is up to mother nature, and other weather systems as to tracks, and colder water to diminish their power .

For those heading down to the BVI during hurricane season, stay up on the hurricane centers updates. A short time ago,
most of you are well aware of the September hurricanes , Irma and Marie.


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As to early predictions, and all of their computer models, and warnings, or guesses that the system will go to the south.... and base your vacation and
family safety on those early WAG's..... well, all of you have the choice to do what you wish.

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Hurricane Fact : Now this was Kauai Island Hawaii. We had many hurricanes over many years headed across the pacific toward our island.
Many times the colder water, or wind shear, or hitting the neighbor islands high mountains first, the systems would lose strength or go to the south or
north of us....and those factors kept Kauai safe. Yep, could be lots of rain, high surf, and stronger winds, but not catostrophic.

Then came hurricane INIKI.....and everyone, as usual , was watching its progress, and the people prepared with loading up with provisions, plus
lots of water and shopping carts full of toilet paper. Cracked me up our first year there in COSTCO, with large carts filled and piled high with
T.P and bottled water. We followed the locals procedures.


The hurricane center tracking showed INIKI cat 4 was going to pass to the south of our island. But still the people prepared. And they still do.

It looked like a miss to the south, when all of sudden, in made a sharp 90 degree right hand turn to the north and hit Kauai full force dead center. The destruction
was horrendous. The month was SEPTEMBER. For the 10 yrs that we lived on Kauai, we and the island still continued to prepare for any hurricanes
headed toward the islands. It was never treated indifferently .

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The above is for your safety, and awareness, and perhaps share with those who are September and October visitors.

In the BVI , for many years there was no major problem ,,,,and the IRMA AND MARIE....

Your choice as to your vacation plans . Might possibly stay alert and keep up with the Hurricane Center Reports. it could increase
in intensity or just flat run out of energy and down grade or veer and be a total miss...

Another thought, Even without a direct hit, the weather and ocean conditions can be less than ideal for land or sailing fun in the BVI.

We pray that it will lose energy and miss the BVI, they do not need to go thru another Irma.


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At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 54.2 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)

GOOD Tracking Site:

http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html

Great Site for tracking, thanks for sharing.

I also find www.Windy.com a great site for forecasting as well. https://www.windy.com/?15.178,-66.378,5

Track going more North. Still no warm and fuzzy. Strength is still low on the bright side.
G

Dorian seem to be reorganizing a bit and the trajectory is a bit more northerly which should bring it about 40 miles closer to the VI.
Tomorrow mornings NOAA report will be the deciding factor.

Real time satellite site:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir

TS warning issued

Love to hear some updates from friends on island...

Oh Man! Friends on island....Updates when you can and please stay safe.

It looks like the BVI will sustain tropical storm force winds and parts of the USVI will see minimal hurricane force winds. Hopefully overall damage will be light. Track has not followed projections however intensity has been right on. Max wind speed until North of the Virgins not predicted over 70mph. Fingers crossed that it does not strengthen!
G

NHC issued hurricane warning for USVI, PR, Vieques, Culebra at 0800.

I heard from our caretaker at Puerto del Rey, the marina is locked down at noon today. All the boats near us in the yard are secured and the hurricane straps are tight. I'm glad we are secured and not seeking shelter. This is a good test drive. But, we are missing living on the boat! Grenada next summer.

Cheers, RickG

Dark and heavy rain in CGB now. Had a strong initial burst of wind but I'd guess it's only blowing 20kts now. All the CGB webcams are still up!

Hurricane warning issued for the BVIs on the 11:00 AM guidance!! Stay safe, people!

From the NHC--

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest
Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are still possible in portions of the
Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday but are becoming less likely
to occur.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF: Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

The bad news is that it will be a direct hit on the BVI. The good news is the highest wind forecast at the airport is 50 mph. Really a tropical storm.
Edit: Still classified as a tropical storm.
G

Soggy Cam is starting to look kinda nasty!

Sure glad no one tried to brave it out there! You just never know with some folks!

Check out Cane Garden Bay cam. There are 3 Cats all riding nicely. Hardly a wave!

Just upgraded to a Cat 1. There were boats in Cane Garden Bay earlier.

Officially now a hurricane, 82 mph sustained at Buck Island USVI, with wind gusts of 111 mph!! Stay safe everyone!!

Peak wind so far at the STT airport 61knots or about 71 MPH

cane garden cam is live: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gZ8FreDZGM

Looks like the ghut by the Elm opened up into the bay.

Just heard from a friend in STT that Road Town Fast Ferry broke free, still trying to get damage report. Also a large barge made it's way up on the rocks at Cruise Ship Pier park.

Sure hope the worst is over! Love these islands and their people!

Looks like Florida is next in line. Might be some out islands also ..

Good update on post storm:

https://www.bvitraveller.com/hurric...Z3v7l9IYhliOSU6wvKq2foVNcgoS36JB1EdJtiNE

The Moorings reports no damage to boats or facilities.

Sure all their boats are still under repair from Irma

That was a nasty blow here in STT - many have no power, lots of trees and branches down, some power pole snapped.
The 5am NHC update and satellite imagery showed a serious likelihood of direct hit on the VI's. I went full on shutters and prep at home.
Strong winds, torrential rains - will be a bit of recovery time in STT.

Prayers for all affected, and those in the path!

Just chatted with Sherwin on Anegada. All is good and they have power.

Jim Cantore from the weather channel is at Waldos In Vero Beach. Not a good sign! I am considering evacuation from my Vero Beach home. Don't want to live in a box with steel shutters and no a/c I have a generator (from my old home) but it will not power up the a/c. Tracks and wind speed are not good. Same hurricane brushed my almost rebuilt Virgin Gorda home which was completely destroyed by IRMA

Oh dear tpcook!
Stay safe and we will be sending good thoughts to you and yours.

Our place on Jost came through Dorian like a rock star! We are grateful.
Even the newly planted coconut palms at Sandy Ground Estates are still standing!

Something new coming off Africa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

Thorsten--Vero had been in the crosshairs yesterday, which was the worst scenario for us, but it's moved a bit further south this morning. Best wishes to you and everyone in Florida, it seems! They seem to have no idea what this one is going to do.

This just in..Trump is opening Mar y Lago as an evacuation site.

Yes, as of 8 PM tonight, the hurricane experts REALLY aren't sure if Dorian will even get to Florida before turning north and northeast. Please tell Manpot that we don't need his supposedly funny BS about Trump's Florida property!!!!!

It seems to become clear that the storm may come ashore slightly below Vero Beach at 145 mph and then skirt the coastline of Florida north. This is the worst scenario Will be massive damage. Electricity could be off for weeks

Interstate 77 just North of Charlotte is full of power line trucks heading south. Should be lots of help if it does go bad.
George

They may want to stop soon! Track moving up coast. IF lucky the tracks will continue to turn north and then NE. Hopefully, USA mainland will be spared the experience this time.

But hope my coastal GA & SC friends are in preparation mode.

You just did.

I thought it was funny!
G

Supposed to be..

I also thought it was funny.

Mal--Let's just leave politics out of this ok? Let's focus on the storm. For me, personally, the tracks from today are better news than before and hopefully they verify.

Now thinking of the folks in Marsh Harbor and other north Bahamas areas, low-lying towns with 160 mph winds and the potential surge is a terrible scenario...

Winds from Dorian are now 180 mph. Unimaginable..

Yes 180 mph.
Send some prayers to the Bahamians.
May they be safe.

Anyone else also watching that orange cross coming off Africa?

@manpot, the NWS has a tropical forecast you can check.

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=sju

Manpot has owned a villa on Tortola for over 30 years. I'm sure he knows the weather sites to check.

Thanks all...hoping for the very best for our Bahamian friends..any news from that area would be great.

Marsh Harbour and Abaco in general got hit pretty hard with winds and flooding.

You have to remember 30 years ago the weather forecasts weren’t even close to the accuracy of today and to mention the orange cross without mentioning the five day predicted forecast which shows it going north and away from the islands shows that secondary advice is always welcome.

Hard to believe..but my knowledge and understanding has moved along with those years. In TV we went from the dark ages to Beta to Digital during my TV career. I can handle the upgrade in technology and appreciate it and the advice from good friends.Now..where is my good friend George Carlin and his "Hippy Dippy Weather Man"...he had the the knowledge to make sense of all this.

I’ll mind my own business in the future

Back to your stormwatch...

>> I’ll mind my own business in the future <<

All input welcome! Knowledge = safe travels...:)

The news out of the Bahamas is sounding pretty grim with Dorian basically stalled. At least that angry red cross off Africa looks like it will spare them and us by heading into open water.

And a new tropical Wave ist forecast to emerge.

https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/481700142664492/

Video from Abaco Island. Awful.

We did a cabin charter through the Abacos this past June and loved it. The people were awesome and the sailing just beautiful. It's heartbreaking to watch just like we did during Irmaria.