future economy & cruising

so as global economies slow and slip into recession with negative interest rates and renewed quantitative easing/ debt expansion on top of already massive debt, where will this leave the boating industry. how will this effect the islands, cruisers, charter companies and boat builders? will boats maintain value through a global depression or shed significant equity?

You’re painting a gloomy picture, as long as the US economy keeps growing I could care less about the globalist EU.
If the EU collapsed it would be doing the US and the western world a favor there wouldn’t be a mass migration of third world rejects invading our borders.

Interesting question - we've gone through three "recessions" that have occurred in the north american economy since first coming to the islands - the cruise boat traffic doesn't seem to be affected as the cruises are "cheap" compared to other kinds of vacations. The bare boat sailors seem to come hell or high water due to their love of sailing and the villa rental market tends not to be affected because bookings occur about 6 months to 1 year ahead which is about the average length of time a recession is at its worst. Prices are flexible for virtually all the kinds of holidays people take on island - once you have invested in an asset offshore, whether it be a home or boat, you've paid the price so it's the return on investment that matters - most people who invest in these kinds of assets (hopefully) have some kind of staying power and don't sell at the drop of the hat. In the long run it's the purchase price that determines if you get a good deal not the sale price.

During the 2007-08 US financial meltdown there were some great deals on power boats especially all down the US eastern seaboard - friends of mine picked up a 60 foot power boat for 25% of cost and brought it back to Toronto but I think that was relatively unusual and probably more to do with an "excessively spendthrift lifestyle" by the previous owner. There is no question that the island boating industry (rentals and marina operators) would like to have a bit more cushion following Irma, but to a large extent they collect fees from individual owners of boats and can lay off some workers to "balance" the books. I think hotels have a bigger problem given the number of workers employed but overall the average financially well off family does well during recessions and there are not too many middle class North American's taking vacations in BVI.

Massive debts at the U.S. government level are troubling in that U.S. currency devaluation is a real possibility especially given the extent of US government borrowing from China and other countries - this would have a real impact on the average US resident's buying power and that too would affect the residents of BVI because they use the US dollar. One of the reasons I keep telling friends in the BVI to increase agricultural production so they are not dependent on imported food.

The US economy was hit far worse in the 07/08 financial crisis than it is likely see in the near term slowdown. There was a only a marginal impact on the the charter business. I can remember sitting at BEYC watching the market meltdown in 2008 on the big TV screen happy that I liquidated most of my holdings before I left home.

Really? You make statements as fact, when in fact, there's no indication that globally economies are slipping into a recession. What country of any size is now using quantitative easing?

If, on the other hand, you're just asking "what happens to the boating industry when there's a recession?" Why not just ask that? What is your purpose of the post? It reads to me as if you are trolling, but maybe I'm reading your post wrong.

I don't think he was trolling. As a small business owner and someone who's committed to bringing a cat into charter in 2020, I've been watching the economy closely for years. It may be new to folks but economic forecasters have predicted a slow down in 2020 for several years and a potential recession since over a year ago. So it may seem new and political but it's not.

That said, we went ahead and committed to the boat anyway based on our love for sailing, at least anecdotal evidence that the charter business is not as affected by a slow down as other businesses. The draw of BVI to sailors attracts charterers world wide so I see it as Gordaguy mentioned, a factor of our ROI. I don't see a recession as comparable to the 2008, only the depression compares.

So, we will be there come hell or high water. and truly hope that many others feel the same way.

And forecasts for 2019 and for 2018 reported in Forbes and CNBC (google it).

I say that only to say, yes there's a prediction. But there's almost always a report in a major economic/market outlet during any expansion that a recession is looming. If you predict one every year, you will finally be correct.

It may very well occur in late 2019 or in 2020. Goodness knows we are "due" one and China definitely shows signs (which it has several times during the US expansion). But there are no signs (yet) of the world slipping into a global recession.

One must always be vigilant, just like with hurricanes. Be prepared, but don't change your plans until it's real.

with all due respect!

current countries utilizing QE and similar forms of stimulus:
USA
China
Japan
EU
Australia
countries with current NEGATIVE interest rates:
GERMANY!!
japan
france
italy

countries with current negative rates when factoring in inflation:
ALL

During the first Gulf War we saw a big slow down of tourism in the islands. This was on top of Hugo and then Marilyn. Right now we have higher than usual airfares due to the 737 Max being grounded which has driven AA's cost high. There will always be externalities that drive rational expectations. The islands are at the end of a long supply chain and are dependent on tourism. We are still seeing residents leaving the island due to the lingering impact of Irma. There is risk. Businesses and people that are just getting by will have challenges.

Cheers, RickG

Agree Rick there is always a risk including leaving the house in the morning. Different segments of the population in any country may or may not be in recession; I think what is relevant is to look at the social/economic/demographic of the portion of the population that goes to the islands. There will be an economic recession for truck drivers when autonomous trucks are the norm on highways. There is a boom going on for mid life residents of Toronto and Vancouver as the baby boomers pass away and provide their offspring with large inheritances due to the property values in those two cities. No question that the tone of a national economy has bearing on how people feel about spending money but even in a depression the values don't go to zero. Also please don't think that what happens in the US necessarily occurs in other countries - the world is a big place in many ways.

The EU is not in a recession but growth is stagnant. The US is the only developed western country with any growth albeit 2% doesn’t make you want to stand up and cheer. I think the charter business is somewhat insulated unless we have a total financial meltdown or some protracted event that limits travel such as a more than regional war.

Or continued tariff wars with China

Hey Rick - good to see you still posting - I used to be a regular on VI Online forums, and always enjoyed your STJ posts! My family is currently staging a quiet coup over my insistence that it's not practical to stop at STJ on our 1 week BVI charter. Will be very hard not to hit Cruz Bay and Maho . . . .

There is a monumental effort to talk down the economy and paint the bleakest picture of just about all aspects of our world. Gee, guess what? There's a presidential election in 2020. If you believe the crap you hear on the so called "news", you will probably be surprised to see the sun come up tomorrow. Turn off the TV and enjoy yourself.

Spot on!

Bingo!

Amen.

Couldn’t have written it better myself.

Not talking down the economy but there are areas where prudence is required - I wouldn't buy any IPO's nor stocks that don't have a dividend and I'd stay away from any shopping mall properties and retail shares. There are some underlying shifts in the world economy as China takes over as the major driver from the US.

Oh, so you are buying a boat to put into charter and are worried about economic forecasts based on that purchase. Remember, boats don't appreciate or make money. You will lose money by buying a boat. Ah, but the purpose of buying your boat is to sail and live your dream. Boats provide a means to escape, explore and spend money on maintaining the boat You are committed to buying the boat so just continue to live your dream.

SO, anybody want to revisit this post that was completely shrugged off a few months ago?????

Not really.

even a broken clock is correct twice a day

Nope. This guy nailed it:




Yep, spot on.


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