NOAA Advises Tropical System Coming Tonight/Tomorrow

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning in association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles east of Barbados. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required today with shorter-than-normal lead times for
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system.

This system will be moving up the Caribbean Sea coast impacting areas like Phillipsburg, Simson Bay, Maho, Mullet, Marigot, and Anguilla.
Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Sorry, where did you get this part of the post-----"This system will be moving up the Caribbean Sea coast impacting areas like Phillipsburg, Simson Bay, Maho, Mullet, Marigot, and Anguilla." Is that supposed to be a quote from the NHC, as the NHC website does not say that. I THINK, even if this thing forms, which I guess it will, it will cause only high winds and seas, not any kind of tropical storm force winds in SXM.

The models tend to agree on this one - the system will pass sufficiently south of St. Martin so that there will only be above-average wind, seas and rainfall

OK, thanks Zanshin. Are you still in St. Lucia?

Yes, I am. This morning when I woke up that nasty red X on NOAA's page was a mere orange and the forecast was mild. Then, 2 hours later, it was red and I was debating putting out more fenders and doubling up the docklines. But since the storm is going to pass to the north, the counterclockwise rotation will make the wind go against the prevailing trades and the result will be low winds here. At least that's what I'm hoping.

Best wishes. Yes, this one seems to be giving forecasters a run for their money! Hopefully the one behind it isn't a problem either, as it has a lower chance of developing than the first one.

Here is the cone showing it south of SXM...

Will get some rain tomorrow which will be good for our plants .

In 2019 in October a mild tropical storm had past us the week before, it brought some serious waves to Simpson bay and Beachside villa's. Louise caught this wave with her new camera.

8 AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center

has tropical storm warnings for Puerto Rico and the USVI, but no watches or warnings for SXM.

The Daily Herald says to expect a couple of inches of rain and 30 mph winds. Sounds like a good day to stay "home"

Just a good blow.

And wet too.

Closest approach just passed us. We've had some showers this morning, one short squall blew open our windows (they were not secured). 100% clouds just now some bright sky behind, some dark, a normal breeze and the roads are dry. May very well be different elsewhere and perhaps there's a back side to this as the worst was to be his afternoon.

Making chicken soup. That kind of day.

Maho Beach cam looks pretty rainy right now, but just saw a prop job plane on the runway, so winds must not be too bad..

11 AM guidance is that it is not yet a tropical cyclone. National Hurricane Center link

Yes, another squall just came through. Still raining.

New invest to watch... The next named storm is GRACE.