Hurricane Irma

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Hoping the track keeps it north of the islands.

A quick look at the 7-10 day models shows in +/- 240 hours the extreme weather forecasters will be very busy with Carribean, West Coast, East Coast and Gulf of Mexico storms. Harvey is very disruptive for now. Once Harvey and the current East Coast storm is gone? The pictures should get a little clearer.

Doesn't look good!

She'll be arriving about the same time we are scheduled to. Never wished for a tail wind so much!

Here is the latest 9 day model. The path shifted way south since this AM. For those that do not believe in long range computer forecasting the BVI should be fine. If this is correct the weather will not be good near the water...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f216.php

Looks like she picked up a little speed. Still gonna plow right through the islands.

From spaghetti models web site.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11

Hopefully it turns hard north. But it's so far away, so the likelihood of an accurate landfall is low.

OK, not sure what the time on that map is, but the National Hurricane Center current guidance brings Irma far to the SOUTH of the BVI..

Other weather models predict a turn to North on Monday/Tuesday next week

The 11 AM NHC forecast still shows it going south of the BVI, but forecasting past a couple of days can be really unpredictable. Predicted to be a Cat 4, which will be catastrophic, regardless of where it goes.

Current grib files I look at show a push from the south middle of the week, moving the storm north of the islands. Trying to predict this far out is a crap shoot. If I was chartering next week, I would certainly plan for some unsettled conditions late next week.

The latest 5-day cone shows storm moving in a somewhat southwesterly direction however 6 to 8 day "spaghetti computer models" show it making a sharp turn toward that will (hopefully) take it north of the BVI's, USVI's and PR. Still requires a close watch as lots can change between now and then.

Here is the most reliable long term model 168 hours from now or +/- five days from now:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f168.php

I suspect all the boats will be kept at the dock or moved to Hurricane Hole next week unless there is some change. The turn taking the storm to Carolinas or Bermuda is not materializing. In any case next Wednesday and Thursday will be the days of greatest risk with preparations complete before Tuesday across the region.

For you gamblers out there here is a risk or odds chart....

Good luck to everyone down there!

Wow. I was on charter this same week last year. I think Sept. 10th is the actual peak day of the season. This doesn't look good. Hope everyone and everything is safe. Feel really bad for all of you that have charters booked. I know how much the feeling of your long anticipated vacation being threatened or ruined really sucks.

Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Now we do it ourselves saying something like... I have done this before and the weather was perfect. Most of us do not know what we do not know. In our case our only bad weather was once in June a wave came through on the last day of a bachelor party trip. The result the airport closed and everyone was delayed a day or more getting back to work or whatever.

Imagine those phone calls. "Wifey, A tropical wave popped out of nowhere and I am stuck here until at least tomorrow."

We were on a then brand new Virgin Traders 56. They pulled the boat out of the water for the season as we were getting off in JUNE!

If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine.

Bull. You're talking about effectively half of the year. Stuff happens, for sure, but avoiding the whole Caribbean from June through November is silly.

Bull squared. Over the last 12 years, we have chartered over 6 times in June and October, from the BVI down to Grenada. Perfect weather on every trip. No hurricanes, no tropical storms, fewer people and lower rates. The only bad trip? In December 2003 out of Canouan. Our first (and last) experience with "Christmas Winds." After 4 hours trying to motor north to Bequia and Mustique in 6-8 foot seas and unable to clear the north end of Canouan, we gave up and just spent the week in and around the Tobago Cays. Overcast and really windy every day. We'll take June and October, thank you! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" />

Is the purfesser around to give us some hope? Glenn?

I sure don't like this collection of computer models.
http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL11_2017083112_ECENS_large.png?91852102

"unsettled conditions late next week" I would say so for sure.

Maybe tomorrow will have brighter forecasts. Too bad hope is not a valid plan.

Or maybe that week and time of year was all I could afford! Rolled the dice and took my chances and it all worked out. BVI's were deserted! Nice having lower rates and NO crowds but it was almost a little too empty. Plus we missed out on a few places that were closed but still plenty to do. Normally I don't buy travel insurance but that time we did. I think I always would for an expensive charter vacation.

Read this line:

"If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine"

If the most reliable long term model holds the storm with go by just to the North on Thursday. Then cross the bahamas and head somewhere up the East Coast.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f144.php

Hey Jib read this line.

No need to even look at the forecasts until Sunday (or Monday) when the forecasts stabilize. There is currently too much going to for the predictions to be reliable, even for the spaghetti models.

Historically, the odds of a hurricane eye coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 2% per week in September.
In the shoulder months of August and October it's 1%.
In July and November it's 0.5%.
Outside that, it's essentially 0%.

My hurricane tracking software shows the storm going north of the virgins. Yea!

In three October trips I encountered one tropical wave and one hurricane. I don't go in October any longer. Yes, it's cheaper. My vacation time is limited. I can afford not to gamble with hurricane season.

Those numbers are misleading and ignore the tropical waves while not as catatrophic as a full direct hurricane. A wave can be very disruptive to many vacation plans including in our case much of the crew returning on time to work and life back home. There is a reason many of the oldest and wisest close up for the season. Some do not want to take responsibility for playing those bigger picture odds.

Now tracking a bit North.
If the trend continues, hopefully our beloved Virgin Islands will be spared.

Much better...even though my LUCI is in tie downs, all cloths off, and insurance up to date. Agreed, not worth worrying about till Monday. Hopefully I can get back to thinking about replacing the active speaker for the VHF....

[/quote]

100% Wrong. I used a professional and knowledgeable travel agent to book my September honeymoon at Caneel Bay 30 years ago. Even back then they offered travel insurance for hurricanes. Tropical storm Gilbert roared through during the middle of the week and we still had a great time.

Snowdog,
We honeymooned at Caneel Bay Sept 10-17, 1989...Great weather with a little more wind on the 17th as we went to STT on Ferry. Rain began to roll in as we went to airport.
Hugo hit on Sept 18th.
I am pretty sure we did not have travel insurance.

Good morning, Just checked the 0500hr Irma tracking on NOAA. It's still 4 days out, but local folks know to plan and prepare for the worst and pray for the best. If the course stays as shown it doesn't matter if the eye is a direct hit or not. We were just there for the 15-17 inches of rain that caused a state of emergency....there was no wind with that. To all our friends down there, get to work and stay safe!

Reading the written reports on the storm path the conclusion I got was that they have no real idea where this storm is actually going but will be able to tell us more after it goes there! For the moment plan on it moving maybe SW or W or NW and picking up speed.

Looks like she may visit us in Virginia. In San Fran until the 11th When is she supposed to impact the East coast? Stay safe in the BVIs!

The guidance as to where she is going within the next 5 days is all over the place, let alone after that..

Based on current projections, if it does affect Virginia, it would probably be on the 11th or 12th.

This far out the only model with any reasonable track record is this one. Showing any BVI impact between 120 and 144 hours out. Which means Thursday at this point.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f120.php

This far out, the only way to predict the track is like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3HOK6Z8A-M

<img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" /><img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" /><img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" />

Here is the latest 96 hour run:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?...=watl&dpdt=


Close to the BVI Irma will turn more north and excelerate. Then there is the strong chance of a second new system forming just south of Tortola and threatening the VI region on the 10th.

We love to travel in shoulder season--fewer crowds and costs are down but HURRICANES are up. We are leaving Monday for PUnta Cana but we always get travel insurance for this time of year!

Our travel insurance provider GENERALI Travel insurance has been in contact with us re: Irama alerts. their website has alot of good travel info: https://www.generalitravelinsurance.com/travel-resources.html

We love shoulder season travel because fewer crowds and prices are down but HURRICANES.

Our upcoming Punta Cana trip could be impacted by Irma. Our travel insurance GENERALI has alerted us. Their website has updates: https://www.generalitravelinsurance.com/travel-resources.html

Latest track has Irma passing to the North of the BVI as a category 4 storm. Guidance places it far enough N to avoid major damage but there will be significant wind and rain.
G

Note the systems popping up after Irma passses.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?...=watl&dpdt=


Normally that is where an October or November storm would suddenly form?

Hi George, when you posted lastest track, could you also post when the guidance was as at? And the source.

Tracks are changing too fast for comfort especially when distances of 50 miles may be very significant.

I note that the U.K. And NHC tracks keep continue shift south towards bvi as recent as the last minute or so.

Thank you.

Warren

Storm Carib puts the CPA at something like 70 miles away now. Right now, it's a really small cyclone but predicted to get bigger quickly. I always forget, which side of the storm is the worst? Isn't the storm passing to left side the worst?

Carol: The right forward quadrant has the strongest winds. That is why we always like these things to go north of us. The farther north the better, but north.

The right side of the track is worse (for tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere)

OK, thanks. STAY SAFE, everyone!

Pam and I will be going to the villa Sept 16-28 to get some work done. Last hurricane at the villa was 40 hours of hell. Blew well over 100 . Was not fun.

The info I posted was from updates in the last 3 hours. While the storm is predicted to become a CAT 4 it's a tight storm so a miss greater than 50 miles should limit damage. The thing that concerns me is the miss to the N is predicated on IRMA making a turn to the N. we need to start seeing that turn soon!
G

Yes keep fingers crossed. The next 72 hours should determine a lot of things, based on the 11am NHC information.

From the NHC:


and

The GFS and ECMWF are now tightly clustered. This morning's shift comes more into line with the ECMWF which has had the best run to run continuity so far. Anegada further east and north is the most at risk from Irma, Tortola and the USVI may be more threaten by the follow on storm. It is easy to get lost in the spaghetti. The ECMWF or Euro model is the only thing close to credible more than 72 hours out. The ECMWF is updating every three hours.

Heard from Walker and Nancy who are on Anegada and prepping " Hidden Treasure"..after dodging serious damage from Harvey at their Houston home. "Island" Jim Kelly has been prepping CRC and is prepared to baby our cat " Farkle" through this...hoping for that turn north SOON!

Not looking good right now. Need a North turn soon. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/duh.gif" alt="" />

Best wishes to Walker and Nancy and to Island Jim and to all on island!

Hello TP...we will be there also arriving on 9/16. We will be at Mahoe Bay......

Latest NOA track is west, not wsw. Maybe that will help a bit.

call me at the villa 5402442 cell or line 4957425

Storms seem later this year - that doesn't help
Let's all hope "luck-o-Tortola" holds against Irma
Best to all

I really don't like what I see from the various models this morning. Looks like they have shifted the track slightly south as it passes the BVI and are giving it a greater chance of a US landfall. Still plenty of time for a turn North. Keep the fingers crossed!

latest track shows Virgin Gorda 21 miles from the track center. Not Good

Tortola 27 miles, St. Maarten 23. NOT good...

I remember hearing that, boats are shuttled to the hurricane hole.my question is what is the criteria when or who makes the decision?

Not only 23 miles away, but when the winds are forecast to be 140 mph. And Ratman says, if we have damage for the first time in 50 years, it will be all my fault for having the view opened up! Not good at all.

Irma has just been mentioned on BBC weather forecast in UK. This is a virtually unknown happening. Warning being given to anyone intending to visit Caribbean or Florida over coming days. Mentions Barbuda and BVI by name. We are praying for you all.

That would be up to each charter company. Some companies place a portion of their fleet in hurricane storage starting in Aug so they don't have to move a entire fleet. I suspect boats are on the move today and assume all the charters have been recalled to base.
G

I'm scared for Anegada.

Here is an old picture. Moving and securing well more than 1,000 boats is very time consuming. Storm 101 is stripping all fabric above deck and chaffing gear like fire hose on all lines. Years ago the fleets would be shut down and stored well in advance. Virgin Traders and others in Nanny Cay usually pull the boats out of the water.


This





This link will take you to the assigned seating this season:

http://www.bvimarineassociation.com/downloads/1607PARAQUITA%20BASE%20PLAN%2026%20Jun17.pdf

Amazing picture and hurricane plan. Thanks for posting this StormJib! Let's hope this works!!!

Charlie Cary the Moorings founder from New Orleans started working on this plan back in 1973. The issue today is the much larger number of boats, the current business plan to stay open during Hurricane season, and the massive size of today's boats. You almost need a football team to take a main off the big cats. The guys on the docks have their work cut out for them taking the boats apart and then hopefully putting them back together again. Only one boat can travel through the cut at a time. The boats will be first queued to enter the bay, then queued again to come alongside and moor at the discretion of the wardens. MASSIVE undertaking for the boats still at the dock.

Surprising to still see a few boats from the Moorings fleet mooching around on the Soggy Dollar Webcam (just one currently in shot).

...would the whole fleet not have been called back to the mother-ship by now?

Should be recalled today. If any are there this afternoon it's a problem.
G

It seems like you would have to notified some of the bare-boaters
in person at their given location. Even though most companies give you a cell phone/ not everyone has it on. And, not everyone listens to the radio. Even though you caution them, even though they know its coming > there is always a few . . .

There's a boat on the dock at Leverick, too.

The actual forecast is sailable until well past nightfall Tuesday and even until midnight. I suspect they have given the charterers until at least noon today and maybe 3pm. All the Moorings boats cannot be secured simultaneously. The last thing they want is all the tourists trapped on their docks hoteling in the boats while the crew is trying to work. As long as the guests are allowed to stay on the boats at the dock no refund is due. If they are forced off the boats by the Moorings they Moorings takes some ownership for the financial problems. The Moorings Marketing company will delay some of the boats as long as they can. Everyone cannot return at the same time. Some will have no place to go. A sudden jog to the North and some may even try to ride the event out in the lee of Jost. A crew would be safe tying up and getting off the boat by 3 on Tuesday.

I scanned all the webcams. Everything is pretty empty. Looks like the warnings are being followed.