Invest 95L

Those of you currently here, or arriving or departing 7/1-7/2, keep an eye on Invest 95L. Currently forecast to be a strong tropical depression when it arrives Wed night - Thursday. Could wreak havoc for transportation logistics. Here’s to hoping it weakens and/or stays South.

Looks like none of the forecasts have the wind over 25 knots. Ferries should still run and I doubt any charter boats will be recalled.
G

Good news George, thanks. Our water taxi recommended we take the ferry as they are likely not going to run that morning so we grabbed ferry tickets.

And for all those out on charter, the weather is going to be veryyyy windy Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Also looking like a decent amount of rain on Thursday. It would not be a bad idea to pick a dock, mooring field or safe anchorage to hunker down and wait it out in.

Dolphin Water Taxi cancelled all Thursday and Friday runs. We are heading back to our base a day early. Stay safe everyone.

Have safe travels back...great meeting you.

Thanks my friend - great meeting you as well!

Invest 97L looks to be much stronger, but forecast to stay way south of the Virgin islands.

I'm currently at the dock in Nanny Cay and am ready to depart, but I've opted to wait out the storm in the marina instead of outside somewhere. Different models show 97L in different locations so I'll err on the side of caution. Plus I get to hang out with Mal at the Chateau Relaxeau.

97L is definitely a big question mark. 95L is certainly paving its way. Glad the wind forecasts for tomorrow look better.

Looks like peak winds on Friday at 25knots actual. Winds in the bar will be 35 to 40 reported! 97L now forecast yo be a named storm. Should (fingers crossed) go well south of the Virgins early Saturday morning.

The track for 97 L has been adjusted to the North putting the BVI on the edge of the cone. Expected to move through Friday evening. Max winds at that point 60 mph. BVI forecast still 20 to 25 knots.
G

There are several models out there with various levels of activity shown. NHC shows 10-20% chance of winds >40 knots, GSF13 predicts 30 knots in the BVI. ECMWF Model is 6-7Bft and the GFS model shows 7 Bft. All of those models currently predict over 25 knots. I've doubled up my lines and the yacht management companies at Nanny Cay have done the same to their boats at the docks. I used today to finally get 3 extra fenders out of my bilge storage and pump them up and attach them to the boat. I think those fenders have been in there for 6 years. Unused.

We're scheduled to start our Moorings charter tomorrow but had planned to delay a day because of the waves coming through. Looks like the delay could be longer than that.

Don't particularly want to head out on Thursday and have to stick out a tropical storm at some anchorage on Friday.

Guess we'll see what Moorings says in the AM.

This is what I used for wind/waves down there, Louis.

https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/beef_isl_tortola

if you scroll to bottom you can see other spots close by. If you chose Virgin Gorda/North Sound and then scroll to bottom you then have Anegada settlement option

Good luck my friend

If the strong stuff holds off until Friday night we may make a dash to the Bight and hunker down there. Natives are getting restless for some sailing, though the fact that MYC has Carib and we don't on board (out at both RiteWay and Caribbean Cellars) helps a bit.

We look the 8am ferry from Roadtown to Charlotte Amalie this morning as our water taxi cancelled. Ferry departed close to 9. Big waves in open waters - largest encountered were in the stretch from Red Hook area to Charlotte Amalie - really rolly. The number of boats in Maho and Francis was staggering.

STT is a zoo. Worse than it was in March. We used a porter and have global entry and pre check. 20 minutes counter to overcrowded gate area. People sitting on the floor. I understand the line was taking 2+ hours (customs bad drop and TSA check-point). Porters are worth every cent.

Thinking about bypassing this mess in January and flying through SJU.

I attempted to use a Porter last week. He asked how many checked bags and I said two. He replied he was not available. They seemed only interested in those with lots of checked bags.
G

They are interested in money...when have only 3 or 4 I give them $20 to get us through and they are fine. Same money for them and less work and saves me time....just spending my kids inheritance

we will do that route in Oct for land based STT trip but we are confirmed SJU/EIS for anything BVI

Looks like it is going to track south and should be almost a non event. 1 reef in the main and on your way!

G

George - are you currently on-island or just looking at weather reports?

I ask this because I am on-island and spent the day in Nanny Cay and Road Town. The winds were strong enough in the Sir Francis Drake Channel that one reef would not have been sufficient. And the storm's winds aren't even scheduled to hit here until tomorrow evening and Saturday.

As Alfred Korzybski remarked, "the map is not the territory". An online weather report does not necessarily depict the actual weather.

Just looking at online reports that show the forecast and actual reported winds at the EIS and STT airports. Currently reporting east winds at only 10 knots. Forecast tomorrow for both airports is 17 knots with gusts to 27. Storm track is now well south of the BVI. NWS forecast tomorrow is for east winds at 15 to 20 knots.

Our charter started today but unless I see a much better forecast for the next 2 days, I probably will stay put at The Moorings until Sunday. I'm going to check out other wind prediction websites but the NWS forecast for USVI is Friday 20-25 knots, 6-8 foot seas occasional up to 10. Saturday 20-25 seas 8-10 up to 13.

All I would likely be able to do Friday is motor sail (we're on a mono) like hell to a protected anchorage on Peter or Norman to wait out the Saturday mess. I'd rather sit safe, tied to a dock at Moorings and sample some things locally. Tonight we had a wonderful time at Pusser's. The folks and food at MYC a.k.a. Mariner Inn, has been great.

We also have friends who are scheduled to be here tomorrow to start their charter on another boat on Saturday. They're on a planned overnight in St. Thomas, still awaiting final BVI approval and of course can only come if the ferries are running.

In late 2019 we booked a 10 day trip for July, 2020. It got postponed of course to 2021. When the 4 day quarantine got instituted we expanded it to a 14 day charter and kept it that way after the quarantine was eliminated for vaccinated folks. So the way I see it, we still get 10 days of sailing and will be able to hit our favorite spots. We're on island time. After being here for a few days we have laundry to do and some supplies to buy.

Given what these fine folks have gone through over the past 4 years, my only hope is that this tropical stuff stays away from them or stays week.

well at least I hope you find your Carib...always wanted to do a 10 day charter and this was 14 due to rolling 2 trip credits from last year together to minimize my portal pain. 10 was plenty and it was nice not to race around...

hope you find your smooth seas and following winds (or at least your Carib)

The forecast changed a bit overnight with higher gust values. Always due what your comfortable with. Here is the latest.
TODAY
East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with
occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated
showers.

TONIGHT
East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40
knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet.
Dominant period 8 seconds. East swell around 4 feet after
midnight. Scattered showers through the night. Isolated
thunderstorms after midnight.

SATURDAY
Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 40 knots
in the morning. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10
feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. East swell around 4 feet.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

The aviation forecast is better with peak winds of 28 knots. The winds peak about 1 am and start to drop around 11 AM tomorrow turning reasonable by 2 pm for the rest of the day. Looks like nice weather the rest of the week. I sure hope so because I am joining you down there on Monday.
G

At the Moorings, check out Amara spa. Had a very nice pedicure there a couple weeks ago, and have done other treatments, too.

Elsa was upgraded to a hurricane this morning. Still looks like a non-event for the BVI with the closest point of approach being 259 miles from Tortola.

My son is planning to make good use of our lay day to continue his quest for Carib. Yesterday we watched One Mart unload 3 cases of cans for the Moorings 5000 berthed next to us so he'll try there in addition to RiteWay and Caribbean Cellars. The MYC restaurant has small cans so we aren't totally roughing it while waiting for the winds to die down.

If you want a nice change of pace, taxi over to CGB and check out Indigo Beach House. It's at the far end of the beach across from Ca0lwood Rum Distillery. The have a new chef that is doing a great job! Very quaint, right on the water, with the famous Vishaal from Myett's! Plus, there might be Carib at Bobby's or Columbus Sunset here...

Sample menu attached. There are always a couple of specials too.

We had dinner at Indigo last week. Wonderful food and the Spicy Mango Margaritas are outstanding.

Awesome! Those margaritas are made with mangos from Coconut Breeze Villas!! If anyone is around and wants some free local mangoes, stop by. We have hundreds and hundreds of them...

While our initial plans have gone with the wind, we definitely still plan to spend a couple of nights in Cane Garden Bay. Too beautiful a place to miss and seems to have good options for lunch, dinner, and I guess Carib.

For sure...CGB was voted by crew as stop to go back to and see again. It really is a nice place assuming no north swell. We had cut Great Harbour JVD for this trip choosing White Bay longer and will cut Cooper in the future

we got ours from Moorings provisioning...

A fine on island comparison much like Drakes Passage for wind speed and direction
TWO Brothers is located in Pillsbury Sound

https://ww.sailflow.com/windandwhere.iws?regionID=260&siteID=3876

Back to the weather.....We were at Privateer Bay (Norman) Thursday night, no issue, a little breezy. Moved to The Bight Friday noonish. Got a good spot tucked up to shore on the south side of the bay...near Willy T. There were white caps in the middle of the bay yesterday and a short squall late in the day. But, not bad and it has settled down this morning (Sat).

I watched the actually winds at both STT and EIS . Mostly below 18 sustained. One gust to 29 at STT. Currently east at. 13 knots with a forecast of. 13 to 17 knots. Great sailing day!
G

We motored from Moorings to Great Harbour today, mainly just to have a quick ride without knowing the wave states. It was a bit rolly but quick and no problems. Winds are definitely down and seas predicted to quiet down tomorrow where we'll do a short sail to Cooper.

This 46.3 has a self-tacking jib so I'm interested in how well it works and how if there is any noticeable performance hit. All the lines are lead back to the helm stations but only the main halyard was labeled. With everything basically in a tunnel all the way back, the purpose of the lines wasn't as obvious as one might think so we labeled the line clutches.

I had a nice sail down the Sir Francis Drake with just a reefed genoa doing 6-8 knots and then, after turning the corner had a nice leg to Sandy Cay with both sails and then the wind died and I had to motor into Cane Garden Bay. There are 15 boats in here and I'm on the only monohull...

I was just watching the Cam Garden Web cam and saw it was the busiest I have seen in a long long time. Not seeing a monohull though.... unless you are behind a cat toward the dingy dock area? Good for the local economy and hoping everyone is enjoying. Looks like it will be January before I can finally get back. Hope things are still settled even more by then.
DIF is bad.

I'm anchored close to the reef, probably "Zanshin" is the only one anchoring, apart from the "Plan B" Megayacht anchored waaay outside the reef.
I just checked the webcam and when it pans I can just see my boat, obscured by 2 catamarans between the camera and "Zanshin"

How is the Sargassum situation. Did the storm move it out or move more in?
G

There was a lot of sargassum collected at Nanny Cay and the West End as well as in the usual places on the south shoreline. Ahhh, that sweet smell of decay. I've heard that many who have recovered from COVID-19 have an altered sense of taste and smell, but I wonder if that applies to rotting sargassum.

Ok, I see you ! The big boat, I like the name, Plan B, wish I had one ( plan B that is) lol

I believe it used to belong to Tom Cruise but now has another owner. They've been ferrying people back and forth all yesterday afternoon so someone apart from the crew is aboard.
Here's a picture I took at the docks in Antigua a while back:

It was hanging out in Lee Bay last week and there was another mega yacht at White Bay JVD. Yuck.

It’s been here a good while, we ran across it a few times a couple weeks ago ago and saw her later from branch on VG

Zanshin looks right at home in the hook from my patio. Beautiful girl!! Heading down to Quito’s soon if you’d like to join for a drink.

I'm drinking "Red Stripe" aboard and pretending to do real work like removing rust and getting the watermaker "unpickled" until such time as 18:30 rolls around and I join Mal at the Elm for some live music. Will you be there?

Due to Thread Drift Here's a new thread

You might want to call and check. Good chance there won’t be music tonight. Will try to confirm before I leave the beach.

Why wouldn't the Elmtones be playing tonight?

Mal would appreciate that information as well before he begins his trek to CGB...

I messaged him but he’s coming regardless. Some of the band members aren’t available so they are working thru it.