Tropical Storm Watch Issued for SXM

From the NWS

"SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 53.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane later today, with
little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office."

According to Storm Carib current tracking takes Jerry over 100 miles away from SXM, so let's hope it stays at least that far away.

Track is now a little more northward. Closest approach 110 miles, TS winds 45 miles out. Sounds promising.

Yes, hopefully that track verifies.

Here is the track:
https://www.thedailyherald.sx/islands/91003-hurricane-hunters-on-the-way-to-jerry

Will be gone by Saturday but it was too close for comfort.

Current tracking is now 118 miles away, but it's way too soon to say 'was' with regard to this storm.

I think SXM is going to be okay. A little windy, but this one misses the island to the north as projected. They keep saying there's too much "dry wind aloft" so I trust what they're saying on The Weather Channel.

I think SXM hopefully should be OK on this one also, but the storm is not past YET...

Did I read that it was going to be a quiet Year???

Don't know anybody who said that! Here's good info from Crown Weather VIA ISland 92. https://post.futurimedia.com/pjil/p...WhgscDKU1TMhLF-3dwBFqhFb7gReznvA_0QSViVM

Very interesting! Thanks for the link.

Hurricane Jerry has reached 17.5 and SXM is 18 latitude. My news 13 has it as a Cat 2 tomorrow so hoping it keeps on a NW track and does not wobble South West...

That sounds pretty close.
I wonder what the weather is like on SXM now.

Yes I also hope it continues NW and harms no one.

Right now there is devastating floods in Texas and Spain also.

I hope that the rest of the hurricane season can pass without further harm.

From Storm Carib--"The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.1N, 62.2W or about 153.3 miles (246.7 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 28 hours and 19 minutes from now (Friday, September 20 at 10:48PM AST)."

153 miles away prediction, as of the 5 PM guidance, which means, if that verifies, should be not even tropical storm force winds. Fingers crossed!!

It was a beautiful day today today, and a lovely evening so far.

Government and schools are open tomorrow.

Overlooking Simpson Bay from Simpson Bay Villas.......almost all the usually moored boats were moved out of the bay this pm and into the lagoon. Swimming in front of “Pelican” was lovely today but definitely more swells than usual.... especially viewable in the distance. We fly at 4 pm Friday so I am happy things look favorable for travel.

Latest forecast is for St Maarten to get 4-6 inches of rain creating dangerous flash flooding.

Jerry has weakened and is moving faster. It will still bring rain to SXM in a few hours.

https://www.thedailyherald.sx/islands/91048-hurricane-jerry-intermediate-advisory-number-12a

http://www.sintmaartengov.org/PressReleases/Pages/EOC-decides-as-precautionary-measure-to-close-schools,-businesses-and-government.-Three-Shelters-to-Open-at-3.00PM.aspx?fbclid=IwAR3z2BkF-bYXIb-JRKiEnbRkA_9nkByY0AkqhWfQU3Fd7NEZNmdOng1oQnc

Better late than never.

Time to go inside...

Sun is shining, dead calm as it has been all day.

Water and sand have covered the boardwalk.