Danny is back to a tropical storm

TD 4 is forecast to be a hurricane by Friday! Not sure what the track will be, past Sunday, but this one wears watching for sure..

All the current projections show it heading right through the VI's. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/cry.gif" alt="" />

Projections I am seeing it will go south of the VI's..still glad we put new shutters on our rental unit at CRC before we left!

Does the BVI have any type of evacuation plan to get the tourist out of the islands in the event of a major storm? With AA gone what are the options? I know there is supposed to be ferry "plan" to allow anyone who wants to be off Anegada to get off. Where do the tourists of Scrub, Nail Bay, Peter, and 1,000 boats go in the event of a catastrophic storm? It was not that long ago when the islands shut down for the storm window. Now we are starting to see a new family with kids mini high season.

The latest projected path shows TD 4 going to St. Lucia with possibly a turn further to the north:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

They couldn't evacuate very many. Shelter in place. Anyone planning to travel during hurricane season should have their own plan B in place. Don't rely on someone else. You take your chances.

When a storm comes its not like its a surprise it would be known days in advance so plenty of time to shut up shop and get to safety. As soon as a named Tropical storm is projected(there hasn't yet thats why all the fleets are still out) to pass anywhere near the BVI all the charter boats are required to be off the docks and in the hurricane holes tied down. As to Scrub, Nail bay these are Villas that have been built to stringent codes and have generators and own water plant at Nail Bay. If you want to get off the island you can, The DDM has plans in place, however I will be staying on Anegada watching anything roll by...

For those of you who have seen these before, how long from now would you estimate if it continues on it's current path would it would hit land?

It has just been classified as Tropical Storm Danny:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
2015 ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 37.5W
ABOUT 1595 MI...2565 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 37.5 West. Danny is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the
west is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Danny is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

I will make a SWAG at it being over the islands by late Monday or Tuesday Morning. The questions are which islands and how strong. There are early indications of a ridge filling in to the north. If it builds it will keep Danny to the south and keep it away from the dry Sahara dust so it can srengthen. If it turns out to be a weak ridge Danny will turn more northward towards the BVI but hit the Sahara dust, loose its moisture and weaken significantly.

IMHO, the best scenario would be for the center to pass just south enough for the BVI to get a nice wet juicy kiss from a couple of the spiral arms.

I follow jeff masters blog regularly for greater insight than NOAA.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3075

We've been through a few hurricanes (including Earl) while at adagio villa and can honestly say they haven't been that big a deal - the generators have worked and aside from a day of rain and wind not really a disaster. Wouldn't like to go through one in a boat but generally the BVI building standards are excellent - no trailer parks to be seen.

Going down tomorrow for 10 days....Hopefully will be lucky and be spared.
just in case i'm following closely through this site.

Spaguetii models

Herve,

Good luck! We went down a few years ago in September. We flew around a hurricane to get there, had a force three pass 75 miles to the south of St. Croix, then had to fly around it on the way back. We just had to sit it out in CGB for a couple of days, we got some gusts and a lot of rain but that was it. Keep in touch with the base, you'll have plenty of time to do what you need to do. Wishing you all the best!

Wife and I were sailing by ourselves when Bertha came through 198_something. Our last night was spent on a ball on Cooper Island - very windy! I called the Moorings base and was informed that the storm wasn't there yet, but we were required to have the boat back at the base in the morning. Fortunately, it was out last day of our charter and we had a hotel room reserved. Long story short, it was a direct hit on Road Town - got to be in the eye of a hurricane! The harbor was shore-to-shore boats. People starting their charters were allowed to stay on their boats until it got really bad - 100+ kts. Since they didn't have rooms, there were required to sit in the common areas until the storm passed. Overall, Moorings did a commendable job keeping everyone fed with whatever the kitchen staff could throw together. The worst part was that they closed the bar! Word to the wise, if a blow is coming, stock up on liquid supplies, if you know what I mean. It took three days for air service to return to normal. Damage wasn't very bad around the island, although an inter island freighter washed up on the Moorings jetty.

Ooh, a storm named after me! Hope I'm kind to the islands.

Dan

This model is showing Danny weakening as he comes into the Leewards on Monday:

https://www.windyty.com/?12.050,-61.750,6

Should pass south of the BVI with 50MPH winds. Hope we get some rain. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" />

Rain would be great

Yes, just some old fashioned rain would be wonderful, throughout all of the Caribbean.

Don't relax just yet. Danny is a very small Hurricane as far as hurricanes go. These kinds of storms are unpredictable with respect to intensity ...... They go from nothing to something in a hurry. Then back to nothing.

Forecasters are having some difficulty predicting how strong and just where this hurricane will go and I guess that's not all that uncommon with all hurricanes but this one seems tough to call.

Be alert and prepare for the worst.

Yes, two or three years ago a small eye hurricane went 30-40 miles off shore of Virgin Gorda...winds were very strong in the tight circle but luckily outer bands were not a big deal. If unlucky and have 100 mph winds hit your island, it doesn't matter so much the size of the storm. Hopefully will weaken or we will be lucky again and main thrust miss.

looks to me to be straight on for the US/BVI - although predicted downgrade back to TS before landfall

I am beginning to wonder if it will even deliver any significant rain once it gets to the BVI. The satellite moisture image shows that it about to leave the supporting equitorial moisture and will have to pass through a lot of extreamly dry air before reaching the islands. Also you can see the upper level shear it will hit tearing the clouds over the lower Windwards. I don't think it is strong enough to make it through there and still have any punch left.

Good news on that so far Glenn... Tackmaster headed down this morning to secure Blue Highways just in case... Fingers crossed it's nothing major. We were there a few years ago for Tropical Storm Chris - spent a few days at Sidney's Peace and Love - that was sure rough! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Laugh.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Laugh.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Laugh.gif" alt="" />

Are the Virgin Islands still all brown and super dry? We were in St. John in April and they hadn't had rain in quite a while.

This was expected and the thinking is it will lose strenght in the next day or so.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 48.2W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Danny.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danny was located
near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 48.2 West. Danny is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is
expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Danny is about to encounter a less conducive
environment, and weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. A
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Danny
late this afternoon.

Danny remains a tiny hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical storm
force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

I hear that there was some good rain on Sunday, at least at West End there was.

It really does have a small cross section for a hurricane...hope it just becomes a good rain event for all that need it.

Been good rain up on Anegada this past week or so, still need more though. Good band this morning also.

Virgin Gorda was VERY brown and ry in July. Hope you both are doing well Connie!

CAT3 now. You guy's be careful...

It rained last Saturday and Sunday in Puerto Rico.
They needed it!

glad for the rain for all of you & hoping more to come but praying no hurricane, careful ! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" />

Yes - really hope the BVI gets some rain but stays safe <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Thumbsup.gif" alt="" />

I am really confused about this storm. All the computer models are showing the storm tracking almost directly at us.

In the past, when we were three to four days away from a storm hitting the BVI, my knee would be killing me ... but it's not. I have no pain at all. It usually swells up like a balloon and the pain is excruciating. But so far, there's nothing!

Now of course, that could change at any time, but it's as though my internal barometer is broken. I almost hate to say this (in case my knee is just being slow on the uptake) ... but I almost, and I can't stress the "almost" part enough, I almost believe the storm won't be coming this way at all and if it does, it won't be much of a storm.

I know it sounds ridiculous, but my knee has never let me down before. It has always been my own personal early warning system. But this time, I've got nothing! So either my knee is no longer reliable ... or ... the storm will somehow dogleg and completely miss us ... or ... it fizzles out before it gets here.

Personally, I hope my knee is right. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Grin.gif" alt="" />

Liane - I sure hope your knee is right!! I have been watching all forecasts.. Jim (tackmaster) is there on our boat making sure all is well.. Everything I've read said that the storm has reached it peak and will now start to fizzle out.

Probably because there is a big area of dry Sahara air between you and Danny. Your knee should start indicating trouble some time tomorrow.

That makes a lot of sense Glenn. I hadn't thought of that, so thanks. I was beginning to doubt my knee. So far, so good though. I guess the Sahara winds are a good thing in this case! I'm very happy to be without pain for as long as possible. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Grin.gif" alt="" />

With a storm this close (under normal circumstances) I'd typically be lying in bed with my knee propped up on several pillows and a large bottle of Advil right next to me. So "yay" for the Sahara wind!

Going to go over to Omars for breakfast! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Joy.gif" alt="" />

Liane, agree with the large bottle, but not the advil part! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Grin.gif" alt="" />

I hear ya ... but I still have to work Eric! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Grin.gif" alt="" />

"Island" Jim Kelley is housesitting CRC for us, but our ground floor studio is open for anyone needing shelter from the storm..just pay expenses..

looks like the winds have weakened to 75mph. per recon plane.

Hearing downgraded to Cat1, so hope all you get is a nice slow rainfall to make everything green and grow!

Perhaps the first time people are hoping the tropical storm will hit BVI. Rain, baby, rain!

I hope there is some rain left whe it gets to the BVI. It still has a lot of dry air to get through

Still no pain. Really quite remarkable as this has never happened before.

I am of two minds, we desperately (really desperately) need that rain ... but I am quite happy not having the pain.

I hope by the time it gets here it is just a really good tropical storm that will fill the cisterns and give all the plants and trees a much needed watering. All my plants are seriously stressed due to lack of water. Lots have died or are in the process of dying.

So bring on the rain ... but not too much too quickly. Don't need the mudslides or flooding.

Here's hoping there is some serious rain out of this system, and nothing else...

I have heard from a few on Facebook that the bananakeets and other small birds have vanished so they must be better than your knee at forecasting. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Grin.gif" alt="" />

Will probably be only a Tropical Depression by the time it gets here Monday. Hopefully will have some rain and more rain to follow.
From a Cat3 back down to this we can thank the sahara dust and wind shear for protecting the islands.

Given that it is such a small storm, there probably won't be much rain. We're at the Puerto del Rey Marina in Fajardo, P.R. We took a lot of precautions that probably weren't necessary. However, there is Invest 98L coming up, but that will probably steer north of the islands.

Tropical Storm DANNY Public Advisory

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2015

...DANNY CONTINUES TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 57.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A tropical storm watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected, in this case within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast


...I don't see the BVI listed there at all, so I guess there never was a tropical storm watch issued for the BVI??

Praying some much-needed rain is on the way!

My hip is beginning to give me a little grief ... but my knee is still fine. I have to believe that Danny will be a no show and that all we will see from it may be some rain and some high winds (briefly) but no cause to board up.

Nobody in my neighbourhood has boarded up yet and I am not going to bother at this point. Some of the computer models are showing it dipping south of us and based on how I feel, I think that is exactly what it will do.

We had 45mph winds about a week ago and got some pretty strong rain as well. I felt pretty much the same then as I do now. The rain came down pretty hard for a while but then it was gone.

Maybe my knee was right after all ... though I do think that Sahara wind did a nice job of providing a barrier as Glenn suggested.

I do hope we get at least some rain out of it.

Danny is Dying! I suspect very little effect on the BVI. Maybe some rain (Sure do need that) <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Groovin.gif" alt="" />

Bertha was July 96. At least the one that was a cat 1 that went right over the BVI.

<img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Groovin.gif" alt="" />

Danny did not even make it past the leeward islands. He is dead. Unfortunately very little if any rain. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Groovin.gif" alt="" />

So, after all of the hoopla caused by experts with their predictions, scientific theories, measurements, charts, etc. all we had to do was ask Liane how her knee was feeling to find out if indeed a hurricane would strike the BVI?

I wonder how Erika will treat her knee.

Jeeze guys ... I don't need that kind of pressure on me!

Interestingly, after reading that Danny was dead, I went about my business as usual and didn't think about the weather again. Then around 9:00 or 10:00 last night, my knee started to ache and began to swell. I looked on the internet, and sure enough, there sat Erika. Darn it!

I went to sleep about midnight and woke up at 4:00, knee totally swollen now. Took some Advil and made a cup of coffee. About half an hour ago, a thunderstorm started and we are getting "some" rain as well. Yeah! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Grin.gif" alt="" />

Seems Danny hasn't quite moved on yet. So now I don't know if it was Danny or Erika causing my knee to hurt, but the Advil has done the trick for now.

Best listen to the experts! Understanding my knee is what you might call a rather inexact science. All I can tell you is that there is a bit of a storm here now and there may be one coming. I'll let you know what happens when Danny finally pushes off.

<Add to shopping list> Large bottle of Advil.

Looks as though there is something massive about to roll off the coast of Guinea/Gambia/Senegal. That thing could prove to be a nasty one if it doesn't break up first.