Tropical Storm Erika 2 PM update

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
200 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE
THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 58.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Erika.
A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for a portion of the
Dominican Republic later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 58.2 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours.
On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over
portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just north of
the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic on
Friday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

I wonder how accurate that 3 to 5 inch rainfall prediction is??

The USVI government announced they are closed tomorrow. Lots of VITEMA messages coming in.

Cheers, RickG

Ferry service from Tortola to CA ceased around 2pm today….Hello Sebastians!!

Speedy's cancelled all service tomorrow.

Had 2 charter boats arrive to Anegada this morning, lasted about 2 hours now all gone.

STT airport will close at 9AM thurs. Hopefully I will get there on Friday and go to Virgin Gorda via ferry. USVI ports are to open 12 noon on Friday <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/duh.gif" alt="" />

Anyone stuck let us know..CRC is available to TTOLers for just expenses to get you out of the storm..
crc@vom.com

<img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" /> VERY GENEROUS!!

Luckily Tackmaster got out...*so far*
I got a text that his flight was cancelled out of STT tomorrow at 2:30. I immediately got on the phone with American and they were able to get him on the last flight out of Tortola this evening for SJU. He is there spending the night there and he's flying out of SJU at 7 am out and hopefully he'll be home by 3pm tomorrow afternoon.

Bravo Mal and Candace

Mal - that is such a wonderful gesture from you and Candace! Nothing worse than coming to the end of a holiday, with finances depleted, and the thought of sleeping on the floor in an airport. Almost happened to me once many moons ago, but a generous acquaintance offered exactly what you & Candace are offering here, and when I was able to sleep in a comfortable bed, I knew that I would be forever grateful! Bless!

Hi Carol,

Not sure about elsewhere in the BVI, but I kind of doubt Tortola will see that amount of rain. I'm still not hobbled by this one. A tad stiff, but that's it.

We sure could use a good rain ... though 3 to 5 inches would be a bit much. I'l take 1 to 2 inches please. My garden really needs a good soaking and so does our cistern. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Grin.gif" alt="" />

<Added> Having said that, Dominica got hammered with more than 8 inches of rain within a 6 hour period! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Yikes.gif" alt="" /> .. they are dealing with some really serious damage from flooding.

I just switched on the Weather channel and they said the storm has turned south a bit. That could explain why my knee hasn't kicked up ... yet.

Kind of eerie looking at the various webcams (cooper, leverick, soggy, etc.) and seeing the lack of action and boats...Soggy Dollar furniture turned upside-down.

I was just looking at that too Jim.....did they call all the charter boats back? Good luck to all in the vicinity.

All charter boats have returned to base.

4 reported dead in Dominica. GRAPHICS: http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Track.aspx Good downloadable tracking maps: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/hurricanefacts/download-hurricane-tracking-ma/31029

Forecast for the STT airport has moved the peak winds back about 6 hours to tonight. Still not forecasting anything over 40 knots so looks like a rain event.
G

Dominica got walloped.

Sure sounds like it, several deaths reported. I wonder if they had been in a drought previously or not, as had most of the Caribbean..

They were, but it rained too much and too fast and the water had no place to go.

It's terrible what has happened in Dominica. 4 dead due to mudslides and 20 more reportedly missing. I can't believe how much rain they got and pray we don't suffer the same fate.

We had a relatively calm and mostly sunny day. Some high winds now and then, the odd shower with pretty light rain ... and a power outage that lasted about 2 hours up in Romney Park.

The major part of the storm looks as though it may (fingers crossed) pass south of us, but we seem to be getting the outer bands now.

The cloud cover is moving quickly and I can still see St. John from my place, so that's a good thing. I hope the Electricity Corporation manages to keep the power on as long as possible.

Not much happening out in the west end and the roads are mainly deserted. Once again, nobody in my area has boarded up. I went to get some ice for the cooler as soon as the power went out and there were at least a dozen people at Big Ben's Suprette stocking up on storm supplies.

The Ani birds and the turtle doves that are always around my place have taken cover. They were still flying until about an hour and a half ago.

Winds are gusting to about 4o/45 mph up at my place. One minute there's no wind at all, the next you get a good blow lasting no longer than about 30 seconds.

I guess everyone has hunkered down more or less for the evening. I'll let you know when/if things change as long as we have power. My knee is still holding up. No pain yet.

The wind is ramping up now and we just had a very brief (5 second) power outage which makes me think the Electricity Corporation may be forced to shut us down soon. Still not much rain, just bits here and there.

The wind is whistling through the house. but it's not window rattling time yet.

Hope everyone makes out OK. I am shutting the computer down for now. Don't want any power surges or brown outs causing damage.

Erika has moved south and will be about 75-100 miles from BVI. Northeast and southeast quadrants will have some rain and wind. Max winds in the center 45MPH, so maybe 30 MPH in the BVI.
Delta Airlines ran a complete schedule into STT on the 27th (today) and I am using them to fly to STT on the 28th. AA did not.

I don't suspect that BVI will get a lot of rain. Some heavy bands just enough to fill some cisterns. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/circle.gif" alt="" />

Thorston - are you on Delta 571 tomorrow? If so, I'll see you at 9:40. I'm in 5D.

Cheers,
Jason

Once again, the storm tracks have been pretty inaccurate thus far. Erika was pretty much a non event for my neck of the woods (on Tortola's West End) and it continues to track west north west rather than north ... as all the models predicted.

We had sustained winds of between 40 to 50 mph for about an hour and a half after I shut down my computer last night, then it began to weaken. The wind continues right now which is (I imagine) the tail end of the outer storm bands with intermittent gusts of about 25 to 35 mph.

Kudos to the BVI Electricity Corporation for keeping the power on throughout. We have had no more power outages, only a few dips.

I really don't understand what all the models are based on, but there seems to be a major flaw in the prognostication system. I don't even think Puerto Rico is going to experience much more than what we did, though they may get more rain than us.

I keep waiting for Erika to make that sudden turn to the north the models all show, but it simply hasn't happened yet. At this point, based on the storm's actual track rather than the computer generated models, I am a "little" more concerned for Haiti, (Jamaica and the Cayman Islands which aren't even in the storm warning zone) than I am for Puerto Rico. That's assuming the storm doesn't Peter out before it reaches them, as there seems to be a large wind sheer coming from the east that could put an end to Erika or at least slow her down a lot ... but what do I know.

It seems that unless there is an actual hurricane, the "experts" don't seem to be able to accurately predict storm behaviour or direction very accurately. Since Erika has proven to be a very dangerous and destructive storm in regards to water volumes ... that is of great concern and points to a pretty big flaw in the system.

Fingers crossed that nobody else will have to endure what Dominica did and that this thing won't cause any more loss of life or major damage.

Good luck to all in her path!

I think the problem is that the models are all over the place. some have it going up the east coast of Florida and others have it going onto the gulf.

I looked several times at the radar pictures. Lots of heavy rain but just to the south of the Virgins. I hope they got some rain after I went to sleep.
G

Post deleted by sleepychef

Post deleted by sleepychef

Here in Fajardo, P.R., we didn't get much of the storm, as it stayed well south of us. I stayed up until 2 last night, and never saw a gust over 40. It's raining quite hard now, with wind gusts up to 30. The satellite imagery says we are out of the storm now, but my eyes and ears tell me something different.

No model correctly predicted the due west shift yesterday. There is a chance that the high peaks of Hispaniola may beak up the storm entirely, sparing The Bahamas and Florida. But right now it is still on a due south heading. At least eastern P.R. is getting a good soaking this morning.

Looks like the worst winds were 10pm-2am - and not much over 40 mph sustained.
This is the wind site I use on a daily basis in Pillsbury Sound but very close to and representative of Drakes Passage

http://windalert.com/spot/48694

Just heard a couple boats washed on shore around Aqua Bistro, Coral Bay. They said not much rain to speak of on STJ.

Was there enough rain to fill the cisterns and get rid of some of the brown?

Last I heard from St. John, two boats sunk and two boats on the rocks in Coral Bay Harbor. Another abandoned boat on the rocks in Chocolate Hole. Friends who live above both said that gusting wind was the biggest impact. Friends ashore suffered leaves in the pool and one flower pot tipped over.

Cheers, RickG

I just emailed someone on STJ, they said "Nope, nothing"

That's an understatement! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Grin.gif" alt="" />

I think I will pay more attention to my knee rather than concern myself with the computer forecasts in future. For both Danny and Erika, it was telling me it's nothing to worry about. Unfortunately, my head was telling me to listen to the experts. They sound so darned authoritative!

So far so good. Hopefully, the wind sheer coming out of the east will stop it in its tracks or weaken it to the point that all it will do is share some of that wet stuff where it is needed. Fortunately/unfortunately, we didn't get much. Dominica certainly got more than any of us would ever want. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Sad.gif" alt="" />

I'm still a little worried about Haiti, Jamaica and the Cayman's. If that thing doesn't turn (like now) they could be in for it if the wind sheer doesn't knock the stuffings out of it.

Yes, the forecasting of both of these storms has just been really bad. We shall see where it goes from here, and the future forecast is just all over the place, as to where it will end up and at what intensity. Come on NHC, you have to do a better job than this!!

Might even pass by you Carol! Looks like we are out of it. At the 2PM anyway.
Bad models. How is it getting across those mountains on Hispaniola?
cheers
irina

Yeah, we were just talking about making sure we pick up stuff that could fly around. I don't get how it will get over those mountains either.. I have not been impressed with the NHC on this one at all! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Mad.gif" alt="" />

Did Virgin Gorda get any rain at all???

Carol, the forecasts have been more than "bad"... I think they've been irresponsible. People take those reports as gospel and it's the ones who haven't been told to be on the alert that really worry me.

I mean, "what if" that darned storm just keeps tracking west? It's already missed two of the "forecasted" turning points, who's to say it won't just keep going on it's slow west north west track? Jamaica is not even on "storm watch" status! What about the southern coast of Haiti? By the way, Dominica wasn't on storm watch status either.

I can't believe that the governor of Florida declared a state of emergency, while folks in Jamaica (up until about three hours ago) were still going about their normal routine, happily thinking they had nothing to worry about. [color:"red"]FINALLY[/color], the meteorological service in Jamaica decided to issue a severe weather alert. Good call fellas. Duuuuh!

We know it's not the wind associated with this storm that is so darned dangerous. Look where the bulk of the storm is located. It's nowhere near the Dominican Republic! It's out over the water ... and where does it appear to be heading?

The forecasters keep concentrating on that itty bitty (almost imperceptible) "eye" or center of rotation as they call it, when (in my humble opinion) they should be focusing on the bit that could potentially cause more major flooding, death and destruction, just as it did in Dominica!

If I lived in Jamaica, I would be making plans to head for high ground in about 24 to 30 hours time, if that thing doesn't make an abrupt northerly turn or get cut off at the knees by wind shear. Jamaica and the southern coast of Haiti could be in really serious trouble. Are they ready for it? Even if wind sheer beats Erika up a bit, there's still a good chance it will pass through just because of it's size.

The next 6 to 12 hours will be the most critical point in my opinion. The leading edge of the storm is just about to run into that wind shear in maybe 2 to 3 hours. If that doesn't do the trick, they had better start organizing themselves.

I find this whole situation truly amazing. Erika is not a storm to take lightly.

Some of the new spaghetti models are showing it going over the southside of DR and Haiti, so the mountains might not be an issue. Which would mean that it probably would not weaken as thought. But then it gets interesting.

Most of the models are showing it going over Cuba in one fashion or another and then heading to Florida gulf coast side. Anywhere from Naples to Tampa. A few of the models have it going along the south side of Cuba but not over Jamaica and then into the gulf. Got to keep an eye on it for the next 24 hours and see what Erika does.

Weather forecasting is the only job that you can be wrong at 80% of the time and still keep your job. The NWS has been hyping the possibility of a "Godzilla El Nino" this year for the Western USA. It would be great to get the much needed water, but these are the same people that predict X tropical storms developing into Y hurricanes that will make Z landfalls in the USA. They haven't been even close for as long as I can remember. Folks, they just don't know! Over 36 hours out, and the predictions totally fall apart. My $0.02 worth.

Happily, the bottom half of the storm was killed off by that big wind shear from the east. It basically stopped it dead in it's track. Unfortunately, the northern half of the storm managed to sneak around it.

What happens now seems to be anyone's guess. I don't trust any of the models. it seems to be dipping south west, and that's not a good thing. Hopefully it will lose steam soon.

The one thing I don't get is they talk about the big high pressure area that pushed the storm south. Highs don't form overnight so you would have thought it would have showed up in some of the models.
G

A disorganized storm (with little or no perceptible center of rotation) is much more fluid than a hurricane and far more susceptible to all the localized variables that generally do not impact the momentum and track of a hurricane.

The experts completely ignored the large wind shear that was visible even to me! That wind shear extended a long way out from the northern tip of Columbia, just west of Aruba. The shear acted like a brick wall to the lower half of the storm yesterday afternoon. BUT, the northern half of the storm moved inland at the Dominican Republic, and managed to escape the effects of the shear.

They need to stop using computer software developed specifically for hurricane behavior when dealing with a disorganized tropical storm. They are two different animals that behave quite differently. Relatively minor, localized influences have far greater effects on a tropical storm than they do on hurricanes.

What amazes me is that as of the 5:00 am report, they continue to show their models with the storm completely missing Jamaica. Really? http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspx?animate=true

This is the only public advisory I could find for Jamaica http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/news/...-tropical-storm

I think the NHC is playing fast and loose with people’s lives. In my opinion, Jamaica should have been put on storm watch yesterday if not the day before. I also think the Cayman Islands should be watching this storm closely too. Even if it turns out their models are correct, it is better to err on the side of safety than to have a repeat of what happened in Dominica where the people were completely unprepared for what they got.

I am not saying that anything would have been different in Dominica if a storm warning had been in place, but who knows, maybe one less life would have been lost ... maybe more. We will never know.

Remnants of ERIKA Public Advisory
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 291330
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...ERIKA DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...


SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 75.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 930 AM EDT (1330 UTC), the remnants of Erika were estimated near
latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.9 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general
motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the
remnants expected to move near the coast of eastern and central
Cuba today and tonight and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of Erika are expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10
inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and
eastern and central Cuba through Sunday. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Turks and Caicos
Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through
Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with locally heavier
amounts, are possible across southern and central Florida beginning
on Sunday.

WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are expected in squalls over
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas for the next several hours. These conditions are expected
to spread into the central Bahamas this afternoon and tonight.
Gusts to tropical storm force in squalls are also possible over
eastern Cuba today. Gusty winds could occur over southern Florida
beginning on Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system will
be available in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the National
Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast
office products issued by the National Weather Service.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Thank God!

There were two more (small) wind shears off the southeast coast of Jamaica that formed sometime around 5:00 this morning. I didn't think they were big enough to stop the storm but apparently I was wrong. it is really interesting to watch it collapse on itself!

Hopefully some of the islands and Florida will at least get some much needed rain in reasonable quantities.

Florida is probably one of 3 states that does not need rain. On the other hand it would be really nice is some would trickle up to NC!
G

We are certainly fine here on rain in Central Florida, although I guess around Miami, they do need rain.

Another one already on its way off Africa..

July and early August were insane for rain here in Tampa. Never seen anything like it. Hopefully some of the areas that need it (like Miami) get it instead.