Karl

I'm from the Midwest so we have never paid much attention to hurricanes. Supposed to start our charter Tuesday the 20th should I be worried about tropical storm Karl that is predicted to pass just north of BVI?!

You should certainly pay close attention to the forecast so you don't get caught in a dangerous situation. I hope that the charter briefing has some words of advise too.

If there is any worry all the anchorages will be filled with chase boats from the various operators telling the charter boats where they must go. Named storms are one thing that will be proactively and directly communicated to you. If this forecast holds the issue this week will likely be no wind or light and variable winds.

Here is the wind forecast for Thursday. Swell looks like a non issue for the next week.

All the projections have Karl passing well to the north of the leewards. Might produce a bit of north swell late in the week.

Are the forecasts fairly accurate? Are they known to change paths?

Not likely in this case as virtually all the steering factors are pushing everything north of the ITCZ northwards right now. In any case you will have plenty of warning should anythuing change.

I'd be far more concerned if I had a Bermuda vacation scheduled!

I'm more concerned about that red cross behind it..I'm flying back to CRC Sunday night..

Yes that looks questionable!

The long term models show a near endless stream of those "Red X's" or Monsoon Troughs coming of the continent of Africa. There are two more waiting their turn to exit Africa now on the weather maps. The long term models going out more than 10 days have them all steering north of the Caribbean or dissipating mid Atlantic for at least the next two weeks. That does not preclude a storm forming on top of or nearby the BVI.

This is the projected track of that 'red cross' behind Karl -- not too much of a concern at present

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_96