need some advice re: BVI charter

Hi All!
We chartered a 43 Power Cat from Moorings in Roadtown last June and are itching to do it again..SOON (well, as soon as they lift restrictions for US tourists). Does anyone have a best guess on when the restrictions will be lifted? We were thinking maybe the last week of September (even though that's hurricane season) but do you think it would be safer (meaning a better chance of actually making the trip without quarantine or travel restrictions) to schedule in Mid Nov or December. Thoughts?

We are missing the painkillers and the beautiful beaches and the warm Caribbean waters!

Thanks!

I wouldn't put any non-refundable money down anywhere right now. You don't want any limits on your vacation - mandatory quarantine or otherwise. IMO, even when things re-open, demand will not rebound immediately, and boats will still be available at good prices. Flights will be the other issue, as so many have been canceled.

Wait until things are officially open. I would not plan a trip before 15 Oct.
G

Why Oct 15?

You are out of the main hurricane time frame and it’s the inter line regatta which generates a tremendous amount of revenue for the BVI. If they slip the opening date past 2 Sep I suspect they would allow a reopening for the regatta. It’s the first big event leading into the high season.
G

I am pessimistic that BVI are going to open without quarantine anytime in 2020, maybe 2021. The possibility of visitors from the US (in particular) of bringing Covid-19 is much greater now than when the BVI closed. I suspect they will have some type of immunity requirement when they reopen or quarantine which means nobody will come. There obviously is tremendous economic pressure to find a path to reopen, but the government seems to be petrified of this virus to the point of economic suicide.

KF Quinn MD

I agree, but I don't think it is being pessimistic - just realistic. Without rapid testing or a vaccine, I don't see how the islands or any place where they can't handle an outbreak could allow in those at risk. And we have a boat in charter there so I would love to see people back asap. Aside from the above 2 items to allow visitors in, I could also see them allowing in those already infected, if we truly determine past infection does give future immunity.

There's a lot of time between now and Sept/Oct though so a lot could happen. I'm hopeful some significant progress is made. Even just reliable rapid testing would be a huge means for preventing those who are infected from traveling.

The USVI seems to be doing just fine. Even though it’s early in the process Georgia seems to be doing fine after reopening their economy despite thousands of people pouring in from other states.
If the BVI stays closed until 2021 the population will literally be starving. With no money coming in there will be no way to pay for food and necessities. All trade would cease. The population would have to flee the country.
G

They try to make it sound like the Human race will cease to exist if there isn’t a vaccine.
This social experiment will be exposed in the next year or so.
The USVI is doing very well and will start opening in a couple of weeks

People really need to start looking at the numbers and not listening to the hysteria. This is certainly contagious and not trying to pooh pooh it but it really isnt much more serious than some of the worst flu seasons we have seen. Populations in Asia have lived and survived swine fluy, noro-virus, etc without this craziness we are seeing. Today I read that some want office buildings to have single person elevators and isolated offices before we are allowed to return to work (See Forbes article). This insanity has to stop.

DaveZ - I agree with you 1000%. I cannot wait until everything gets back to normal!

Not so funny if you know folks who have died from it.

NO ONE with a pulse should look back at this and laugh....ever....

At my hospital in Georgia, we are testing everyone scheduled for elective surgery, endoscopy, heart catherization. Yesterday, 3 people were tested "positive" and do not/have not had any symptoms. But this will make our numbers climb significantly due to much more widespread testing. The truly important cases are those who are very ill or dead. So rising numbers may not tell the true story.

Dr In Georgia/ Wishing I was sailing!

For the record I was not trying to be funny. No question that this has certainly affected the elderly and those with co-morbidities in a way that we have not seen in decades.
My point is that the facts don't support the models or what we are hearing from some of the so called experts. If you look at the CDC site for example they in fact track influenza and pneumonia deaths and hospitalizations on a weekly basis. As of May 8 the deaths reported from the flu were 7789 and from pneumonia were 87,208, about 20K more than from COVID. Hospitalizations per 100,000 population were 68.3 per for Influenza and 50.3 for COVID. Facts not fiction

I've looked at the numbers, and according to the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html), over the last 10 years annual deaths in the US from flu have ranged from 12,000 to 61,000, with no social distancing. Over the course of 3+ months we're at ~80,000 so far even with social distancing, and Dr. Fauci and others consider 80k to be a significant undercount. Comparisons between Covid-19 and the flu are specious and dangerous.

There is however significant herd immunity to the flu and a vaccination. In 3 years covid 19 will still be here but it will just be another flu strain in its impact.

Want to get really scary? CDC (10 year) average cases of seasonal flu: 48,000,000 Average deaths from seasonal flu: 43,000 Ratio of cases to deaths: 0.1% (Note: Life as usual, no protective measures.) Then comes Covid-19 and within three months we have 1,356,037 confirmed cases and 81,571 deaths, or a mortality ratio of 6.0%. (Note: This is with social distancing, masks, and lockdowns.) What if ….. Covid-19 was left to it's own, with life as usual? Could it spread to a number like the flu? The math would then be about 3 million deaths. I am aware this speculative analysis does not include those cases where individuals have recovered and never been tested. I'm thinking the true contagion and mortality rates are yet to be confirmed. Until then it seems we are in unchartered waters.

Yes, in three years, maybe even sooner, it will be. We're certainly not close to that yet. Given their limited medical treatment capacity, I think the BVI is being smart to keep the territory closed. They'll definitely need significant financial support, as will any tourism-based economy. Hopefully, the UK will step up.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

Do you understand that if the BVI stay closed for a few more months that the economy will be almost wiped out and they’ll have to beg the UK which is under stress for funds

I guess we'll find out for sure because I don't see it opening before September and then it's basically closed for another 6-8 weeks for hurricane season. Cruise ships were banned on 14 March and borders closed 23 March so it's basically a 7 month closure if we get to open after hurricane season. Irma was probably similar or a little longer and most people survived. Big difference this time is everyone is still financially recovering from Irma.

I think the tough part of reopening will be the govt. restrictions. Will people want to vacation here if face masks are mandatory? Quarantines will not go away until the country you've travelled from has lower infection numbers and no vacation travelers are going to be interested in being quarantined.

Yes, I’m aware of that. The closure is already having major economic impact and it’s going to get worse. It’s uncertain how people will weather the impact. What is certain is that opening up to visitors from the rest of the world would cost hundreds of lives. There are no good choices for the BVI or the US for that matter. In about a week we’ll start to see the results of Georgia’s experiment. I respect the BVI government for not being willing to experiment with their people’s lives.

And, as Jason points out, the basic precautions that would be required to allow visitors in would deter most visitors anyway.

You cant even reserve a Moorings boat in BVI before September online...that should tell you something right there

The deal killer for me will be mandatory BVI 14 day quarantines tacked on before the vacation or being able to get proof of immunity if that is even possible or significant testing in the BVIs which could disqualify one of my crew or even me as captain . Our experiment starts Saturday in the Outer Banks when the island opens up to all visitors. Although the hospital facilities are limited if any issue on OBX anyone here can drive home. In the BVIs its not like if I have develop COVID issue I can just got on a commercial flight and fly home.

Another issue is the BVIs really haven't developed any meaningful herd immunity

Hospitals in the US receive $13,000 per person if they say a patient had died from the virus which opens up the suspicion of false positives.
The Navy hospital ship was removed from NY because the regular hospitals were close to empty.
This whole thing seems to be setup to destroy the world economy and it’s working.
People are allowed to use the busses,trains and subways but aren’t allowed to gather on the beach parks Etc. Does that make sense?

Again, enough of the conspiracy theories..

Thanks!

Thanks Carol!!!

As a nurse working in Public Health in east coast Canada I will just add that a second wave is a real probability in the fall and a global safe vaccine is not close so I am looking at 2021 ..that is ......if the Pandemic response is lifted and global spread has slowed

I too worry about the BVI economy and my friends

I was supposed to be on a plane this coming Friday for 2 weeks of sailing then a week on Anegada so my heart hurts a little right now ...but I am healthy and praying I stay that way .

Stay safe my friends

Everybody is and has been healthy in the VI before and since the quarantine.

They have seven reported cases and one death, but yes, that’s the purpose of the quarantine, to keep people healthy. It’s working pretty well.

We were due to start our charter on 07/03 but have now pushed it to 07/02/2021. Disappointed for sure but there are a lot more people facing uncertainty in the BVI that makes our disappointment seem somehow unimportant.