Tropical storm warning issued

This one definitely could come close. Some predictions have said a hurricane over the Northern Leewards.

Dr. Soc from St. Maarten has recorded some information from Crown Weather regarding the system.

Link

Most of the spaghetti models show it heading to the northern islands
spaghettimodels.com

And the intensity prediction appears to be tropical storm force winds. Bad enough but shouldn't be a major event other than possibly rain.

I hope you’re right, we’ll know in about 2 -3 days when they name it.

It's pretty dusty here at the moment and the Sahara dust forecast looks like it will be here until late Friday and then back on Saturday. Should be interesting to see if this invest comes thru during that small window of time.

From the 11 AM NHC Advisory

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 53.7W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, including
Vieques, and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Antigua, Barbuda, the British Virgin Islands, Montserrat,
St. Kitts, and Nevis.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of St. Maartin has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Maartin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maartin

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 13.8 North, longitude 53.7 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion
should continue during the next few days. On the forecast track,
the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on
Wednesday, and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development and a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands on Wednesday and spread into the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce total rain
accumulation of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches
across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
possible across the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce
life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential
riverine flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hope our on island friends will keep us updated..think the cover may blow off The Thing!

Looks like a big rainmaker - woohoo! Just had our cistern emptied and cleaned, so hoping this fills it to the brim.

If you're not aware of it, Storm Carib has an interesting graphic, showing how close a particular storm is projected to come to a particular island. Usually it needs to be a named storm, to have it pre-filled in, but potential tropical cyclone 9 is filled in now.

Link to Storm Carib

Thanks..very useful!

You're welcome, Mal. I find many of the storm prediction sites are just too complicated for me to figure out. IF the storm is pre-filled in, Storm Carib is very user friendly.

We're just starting to get some rain and wind gusts. Anyone who's interested in watching the storm today can click the Sunset Cam button on our Coconut Breeze Villas website.

Doesn't look too bad so far. Guidance from today puts it a little further away from the BVI than yesterday, and still not a named storm.

Thanks everyone and especially Jason for his kid offer to check CRC and provide great webcam shots. Looks like we might dodge this one..

Whoa, webcam is missing in action!! Wassup??

Power went out. I will bring it back up shortly.

OK..

it's back now.

OK, thanks! So far, so good!

Any on island update? Another yellow cross already leaving Africa!

Just grey and windy here. A few scattered showers but we're in the clear. Wasn't much of an event in CGB.

Malcom ~ 2020 is proving to not be for the faint of heart. I hate those yellow crosses!

In the words of Jimmy B" We've got riots, fires and mudlsides...and sushi in the Mall"....except its only takeaway...

This is Yellow Cross season, we’ll be seeing more of them in the next 2 months

Soggy dollar post storm!