Tropical storm warning issued for BVI

Nasty looking red cross heading across the pond right now..worth keeping a close eye on this one..

This is the text this morning from NWS for the PR/VI

Increasing tropical moisture is expected on Friday into the weekend
with the passage of a surface trough followed by a potentially
strong tropical wave for the weekend. Recent model guidance and
information from the National Hurricane Center continued to suggest
that this system has the potential for further development during
the next few days, as it approaches the Leeward Islands. There still
remain some inconsistencies in the model guidance but all suggest
a very moist and unstable weather pattern for the region through
much of the long- term, as we approach the peak of the hurricane
season. As previously mentioned there is still some uncertainties
between model guidance in the final forecast track and timing of
this feature but regardless, the potential for heavy rainfall
across the region over the upcoming weekend is high at this time
based on the present persistence in model guidance.

A slight improvement in the weather conditions is expected by Monday
though Tuesday as the strong Tropical system moves farther away from
the region and trailing moisture lingers across the forecast area.
A drier airmass and another surge of Saharan dust is so far forecast
by the middle of the upcoming workweek.

And some imagery :

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=98L&product=ir

Latest spaghetti models...

Up to 90% chance of formation now, PLUS another one coming off Africa!!

Getting busy now

Talk about 2017 deja vu..here we are in Sonoma with fire all around us and storms heading for the islands..

uggh. don't say that....

It's now tropical depression 13, and likely to be a tropical storm when it passes the Virgin Islands this weekend.

Right there with you, Manpot. We are just south of you. Hot and smokey days. Praying for the fog to roll back in.

This storm will pass north of the BVI at 60MPH and will probably not even provide much rain. We need a good soaker for the cisterns

Mal and Husk, I am in the Central Valley of California and it is so smokey here the shadows in my home this morning are orange. It must be far worse up north.

Its better here in Sonoma than most of the Bay area and its pretty bad here! But..to help the local economy ..off to " Bistro Jeanty" in Yountville for lunch..hey you cant take it with you!!

Storm Carib has the following results for closest point of approach of this storm

"Results for Tortola (18.45N, 64.53W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.9N, 64.4W or about 32.3 miles (52.0 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 21 hours and 13 minutes from now (Saturday, August 22 at 6:24AM AST)."

TD 13 is now Tropical Storm Laura.

We usually love it when Laura comes to visit..this time not so much! Keep us up to date from CGB Jason if you would be so kind..

Tropical storm warning for Tropical Storm Laura

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Cabron to
the border with Haiti
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

Losing ground with every update for closest point of approach!

https://stormcarib.com/closest3.htm

Just looked, and the center is now showing closer to St. Croix. That could be ideal - full cistern and no damage.

Not much going on here from Laura. Had enough rum after the curfew announcements last night to sleep thru most of it. Some heavy rain bands now and a little wind. Haven't lost power yet so the webcam is up and the sound is on if anyone wants to watch how Cane Garden Bay is doing. Website link then click on Sunset Cam.

Very reassuring..woke up this morning fearing the worst..looks like a minor event. Thanks J..lets hope it stays that way..and that we can get home!

Not much of a wind event here on Crown MT. STT - good solid rain bands so far - very big surf event on the North side of the islands.

wave height --

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot...uom=E&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT

Glad it was a non wind event...

Very little rain. BVI needs rain.

Husker,
I am headed your way in September, from your post, I read the fires are quite near you? It is hard to tell from fire maps I have been reading.

@Toast - Yes, there are quite a few fires around us, but no immediate threats. Thankfully now the normal off shore breeze is back, fog rolling in and smoke starting to clear out a bit. Safe travels.

Not quite so smokey here in Sonoma today about 40 miles north east from Husker