Tropical wave to monitor

This is peak Hurricane Season!

Is the 94L? I’ve been watching this as I arrive Monday for a week! 🤦🏻‍♀️

I will be in SXM for at least the first half of September.

Always good to monitor these systems and be vigilant.

Both marine models from reliable apps show the system going north of SXM.

Drphilsxm

Thanks, Phil.

Please hurricane gods.......I need my trip to SXM in December this year more than ever. Be kind to the island!

GFS computer model ran today for September 9, 2023 has a system going close or right over SXM in 7 days.

That looks like rain vs a storm to be worried about. Everything of concern is moving north

Kind of concerned about the far one. We leave 9/10 - if we go!!

We are watching this one too, as we are arriving on Monday.

That is the only one we are worried about right now. Even though we don't arrive until February, that tropical wave looks ominous!

Right. I’m supposed to fly down Monday 9/4 but fly home 9/10. Could change and fly home 9/7 - but 3 days. Granted we own the condo so not the end of the world. But a lot of work for 3 days!!!

I will be on the island till the third week of September.
As I mentioned, in my last post, it is always good to be vigilant and monitor these systems.
At this time, the system is one week away from possibly affecting SXM.
Both marine weather apps continue to show the system going slightly north of SXM next Saturday. The GFS or European model shows a more westerly path going over top of SXM. These weather models vary because they all consider a current large high-pressure system in the north Atlantic. If the high-pressure weakens, the system will bend more north. If it strengthens and does not move, then the system will move more westerly.

Since these predictions are still one week away, a lot can happen.

The national hurricane center, which is always a good source, is always general in nature for a seven day forecast. They know that a seven day forecast can not be exact. A lot can happen in seven days with the track of a storm.

I am not a meteorologist, but it is always best to monitor and be aware of these systems as they get closer to see where they actually track.

Drphilsxm

It appears we are in the same boat! Departing MIA 9/4 and return 9/10. Considering departing earlier from SXM to MIA.

Yes Jerry and see you tomorrow.

The 2pm update doesn’t look good for the islands…..

Yes. I just cancelled my trip. Will
Keep an eye on it and maybe head down Thursday or Friday if it moves away.

It is always hard to cancel but better safe than sorry. It is most likely to brush SXM but get stalled out near the Bahamas?
I have a trip planned to North Carolina which has computer models showing a direct hit on September 17th.
Hurricane fatigue setting in and all I can do is wait and see.

We are scheduled to arrive next week on the 13th for 3 weeks. Guess we'll know the outcome before then. The folks at BSV said that they would work with us if something like this came up. Fingers crossed!

The BSV people are great about things like this happening and if the worse comes to pass, they will live up to their word as best they are able. 👍👍

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #13 FORMS...

FORECASTED SHOULD PASS TO NORTH AND EAST OF ST. MAARTEN BY APPROXIMATELY 280 MILES.

TD 13 is FORECASTED to be a CAT 4 Hurricane on Saturday morning at 8 am when it is 280 miles to our north and east.

1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 40.2W
ABOUT 1425 MI...2295 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 40.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to be a hurricane in a couple of days
and could become a major hurricane in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

If that track holds, looks to be fairly decent news for SXM.

🙏🤞🙏

Prayers yes !

SXM is in the cone…

Martini--Yes, but the current track keeps it pretty far away. Hopefully the current track will hold, or perhaps even take it further away.

Note the "M" . Indicates Major hurricane. Winds >110 mph.