September in The Caribbean

Numbers = Hours or in the case +/- 5/6 days

SJ The tracking map is very pretty, but I am not a weather girl so could you explain the "numbers=days"? What numbers?

I will be done in November, could you post weather models for the month?

I vote for the yellow line!
G

The numbers from the models equals the forecasted position x hours after the model was run. So the dot nearest the number 96 would equal that models calculation where the storm center would be 4 days later. This time of year there is much greater chance you will see a parade of lows coming across the Atlantic from Africa. We have reached that point in the weather cycle now:



As November progresses the risk of these types of weather patterns greatly decreases. The time to have a boat in the Caribbean is from late November to May of the following year.

Here is a more current set of models where each dot represents 12 hours of time and the numbers near dots represent hours of time for the storm center to reach that dot:



The [color:"yellow"]Yellow CMC2[/color] Forecast Model would give the BVI North Winds and Swell in +/- 5 days. The [color:"purple"]Purple HWFI[/color] would deliver South winds and swell in 4-5 days. The point is for the next couple of weeks the weather may be unsettled across the Caribbean.

Go yellow

Here is one updated BVI wind forecast for 120 hours from now or Thursday:

George thank you for post...now I see it is a storm track--I vote yellow, too

The numbers on each line represent the number of hours for the storm to reach that point on the line.

There's a ton of Sahara dust behind it, which could help things out.

thanks for the info...didn't know what the numbers represented. It is so helpful when a little explanation is given <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" />

Looks like there's another one behind it coming off the coast of Africa.

The second or third depending on how you count is has a greater likelihood to develop with less chance of impacting the BVI with a more northerly Bermuda like path:



The real message is to note how these weather events can line up one right after another from August to even October.

Actually with the first one 99L purple will take it south and kill it. Yellow may miss the BVI but still become a major weather event for someone.... Wednesday, Thursday... may be very disruptive.

The first one will go through during the night on Wednesday and the second will pass well to the North.

The latest forecast have 99L or the first of the two going by to the North on Wednesday and Thursday. The models show any real intensification after the wave or TS has passed the BVI by. In any case the weather across the area will be unsettled mid week at least. Winds will likely swing from the ENE to the south until they are impacted by the next wave or low.

There ar a ton of very good weather sites available so this info is not difficult to find/track. This is a link to one that many of us on TTOL use to track status.

Wunderground

thanks! bookmarked

I've found this one to be maybe more than you want but certainly just about any information you could possible ever want:

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

http://www.mawsweather.com/hurrican.html

I like this one too. You can see the big puffs of cloud activity coming from Africa. You can watch the water warm up across the Atlantic. The hurricanes follow the warm water trough across.

surface water temps are very toasty

With that hot energy packed water all of the makings for a major event are in place. The question is whether or not 99L can surround itself with vertical development or whether shear at high altitudes will keep chopping the head off the infant monster. Some cold cloud tops are evident in the last three frames of the satellite IR loop. We'll see if this is enough to mitigate the shear and allow 99L to develop over fertile breeding grounds in the Bahamas.