Orange cross..

..keeping an eye on the orange cross just upgraded from yellow that is south right now but headed West Northwest. Fingers crossed..again.

So far, it looks like it will be going north of the BVI and St Maarten/St. Martin, but hopefully it won't even develop..

I have been watchin this one for over a week now!

Already gone to RED!

Yep! And the forecast is too close for my liking! Hope it makes a more aggressive turn to the north!

If it stays on the course of the 8pm forecast we’re clear.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/144756.shtml?cone#contents

It seems we might be into something this weekend

The noon reports today have this previous Invest now labeled Tropical Depression 10. Although *most* track predictions have it going North of the VI's in 108 hours it is absolutely worth watching and making any preparations that haven't been made already.
Many here were unpleasantly surprised by Dorian 2 weeks ago as the *projected path* had it passing North of us until the 5am information the day of its noon arrival with a change in intensity and direction.

Good satellite coverage:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=catl&product=ir

Looks like it has a name now - "Ten" and they'r expecting some winds Friday morning. . . hopefully it remains a "tropical storm!"

Just spoke with our mechanic to make sure he ties down our boats and removes their covers. Our dock repairs were completed the day before Dorian came through, so hope we’re good there, too. Hoping for the best.

Ten is not a name so it's not a tropical storm yet. Don't rush us, please!!

My bad. "Tropical Depression Ten" - how original.

Now it has a name “Jerry”

A brighter scenario:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#10L

Looks like the track shifts more north with each update. Should be fine in the BVI.

Hoping you are right George!

Hoping to hear some on island updates...thanks.

As of now, no watches or warnings issued for the BVI's. According to Storm Carib, closest point of approach for Tortola as of now is "The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.2N, 63.7W or about 132.7 miles (213.5 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 39 hours and 14 minutes from now (Saturday, September 21 at 6:00AM AST). If that forecast verifies, the BVI should not even get tropical storm force winds.

We flew out this morning but most things seem business as usual. I saw some shutters going up and a few cancellations but nothing significant so far. On a side note, the north swell was big this morning. Lots of surfers on Cannon Point in CGB and it was building...

Update right now makes it sound like this won’t be much of a threat for the BVI. The government is canceling everything tomorrow, which sounds like overkill.

Is the north swell normally an issue already this time of year? I didn't think it became a regular concern until November and later. I know swells, winds, currents, etc. can happen any time but I didn't think I'd have to worry much about the north swell for my trip in mid October.

the swell has been from Humberto the last few days. it will switch to swell from Jerry

Big storm passing north of the islands means big energy that pumps waves south..ie big surf.

That was a very lucky miss by a serious storm!!
Stay vigilant - it ain't over til it's over -- a few more weeks!

Watching that new already orange cross that hasnt even crossed the African coast yet!

Closely watching Karen, and the red cross off the coast of Africa!

Looks like Karen is going to hit the Virgins on Tuesday/Wednesday as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds.