New airline service from SJU to EIS

Maybe some other options for getting to and from BVI

http://bvinews.com/new/airline-announces-service-between-bvi-puerto-rico/

Thank you for sharing and the good news on more options. The price published is $99 or $169 a leg to fly +/- 90 miles. That is > $1.00 per mile or many times the cost of competitive jet travel. Propeller planes can get you many places. Propeller planes can no longer compete with jet airliners on cost.

Consider the cost of just one leg at the lowest cost published is greater than the amortized cost per overnight visitor of an airport project greater than $500M if it somehow comes to that worst case number.

Turboprops are far cheaper then jets to operate especially in segments under 200 miles.

Gosh, wasn't it StormJib who was telling us the BVI needed more tourists who didn't care about price?? That convenience was their motivator ?

That would only be true if you could economically justify even flying legs of less than 300 miles. Economically those short legs never make sense financially anymore. See above; $100-150 to fly 90 miles. That also adds at least three hours each way to the trip from the East Coast and +/-$300 roundtrip. An airborne 737 from MIA or any US airport can cover that same ground for 9 cents per passenger mile or less or less than $10 incremental per passenger. Whether ferry or propeller plane from anywhere in the Caribbean the connection to get to Tortola does great harm to the 21st Century tourism. That is why today's newspaper also says the cabinet is now unanimous that the airport must somehow be expanded. There was also press over the weekend from the minority political opposition demanding the project go forward with the lowest cost bidder. That would be the politically unpopular Chinese at $150M. The local favorite is asking for $50M more. The project is design build so there is no way to make like to like comparison.

Doesn't make sense financially for who? The Airline? The traveler? Cape Air has proven you can be successful with short leg routes. And as a frequent traveler from Boston, these short legs are the highlight of our travel. No only is it the fastest way for us to get there, it's a great experience with excellent views on the SJU to EIS leg of the flight. From a cost perspective, it's not so far from our other alternatives and when you factor in what time we get on island vs the alternatives, its worth the added cost.

If we lived in Miami, then direct flights from Miami might be nice. But there's plenty of people where that won't necessarily be an improved option. Especially with few flights and if you have an issue, odds are you are out of luck as there will be few alternative options (if any). Even if we could go BOS-MIA-EIS, that would likely be a longer day as MIA is a bit out of the way still.

I'm not sure how a new alternative from SJU is anything but a good thing.

The actual cost to get the plane in the air for 100 miles is a minor part of the fare. Wanna know why it cost so much to fly between SJU and EIS?

Start with emplaned passenger fees (each way): SJU - $23 EIS -$20
US International departure tax $13.40 Arrival tax $13.40
SJU Facilities fee $4.50
Federal Security Segment Tax $5.00
Customs Fee $5.00
Immegrations Fee $7.00
Dept of Agriculture Fee $3.10
That comes up to $124.00 that the carrier adds to the round trip ticket plus the $20 you pay to get out of the BVI!
In addition the airlines pay Landing fees:SJU - $4.50/ton GTOW EIS $4.00/ton GTOW
Counter, gate and ramp space rent and at least 3 or 4 ground support personel.

And somewhere in there there has to be a little profit to justify being in an industry as crazy as air travel.

That all adds up for me as 9+ reasons why the BVI cannot bet their future on any STT, SJU, Ferry or any other Caribbean island connection outside of the BVI's direct control. Taxes, Fees, Rivalry, lost time, inconsistency, plus the laws of physics to climb from each runway doom all those plans at some point. The same is also true all over our 50 Northern states where the airlines are systematically abandoning the short hop feeder airports. Flights of 300 miles or less have no future.

I disagree. There are numerous examples of short flights that are long standing and make money. A few are the bos/lga/dca shuttles, flights between ord/stl, lax/san and more.

Very different model and market. Most of those seats are sold at a premium to 3rd party funded business travelers. Even with that the numbers and frequency of those segments are shrinking. As the smaller planes serving those flights rotate out of the fleets more of those services will disappear. Just as American walked away from all the ATR service. The smaller regional jets will be next. The going forward airline model is to run the ship at +/- 9 cents per passenger mile with a hope to sell those seats at 20 cents a mile. The rapid up and down with all the fees/taxes and hassles that go with each cycle make that impossible. One proof for the doubters. None, ZERO of the real airlines want to run the short route between EIS to SJU, STT, Antigua, Barbados, St. Lucia... 100+ seat jets and 300 plus miles is the secret to airline survival.

Short haul airports in the US are loosing out because they are to close to a major. Most of the airports receiving EIS subsidies are within an hour drive of a major. An example being my own city. Why drive 12 miles south, pay $120 and wait for one of two daily flights to Atlanta when I can drive 80 miles up I-75 north and be in the atlanta terminal in 90 minutes? Also, passenger demand dictates which airports loose service.

There is a different situation for the BVI in one way and the same in another. There is demand for at least 150 seats per day and probably a lot more for the SJU/EIS route. OTOH, this demand is limited by the proximity of St.Thomas in the same way that my city is by the proximity of Atlanta.

STT handled 691,000 arivals in 2015. Based on the number of visitor arrivals by ferry, 28% of those arrivals final destination was the BVI. (75% of the BVI's overnight visitors) The majority of those passengers arrived via American and Delta out of their hubs in Miami and Atlanta respectively. Jet Blue, United and Spirit round out the major carriers for a total of 9 US departure points an average of 10 flights a day with a peak of 14 and 8 in off season.

Now let's examine which carrier is going to intertain serving another airport 30 miles away. Certainly not Delta. They cut back to a single flight to STT in off season. Certainly not American as the already have the business through their SJU hub. Jet Blue would have to agregate through their Charlotte hub for limited demand. Far more profitable for them to stick with STT. Not Spirit as they only pack one flight a day to STT and nothing in off season.

So, to which carrier could you make a reasonable business case? It would be interesting to see how this MIA/EIS service that is supposed to begin in the fall fares before they commit the islands future to a white elephant.

That's enough for now. If you insist on continuing this nonsense we can discuss the cost of these direct flights and the actual economic plusses and minuses of thses supposed "better class" visitors.

Storm Jib, why is anyone supposed to believe you are an expert on the economics of air travel? Would you please state your background that justifies the expertise you claim?

How do people get to other "high end" destinations like St. Bart's, Mustique etc.?

It isn't on jets from Miami.

With over 800 overnight visitors arriving each of the 365 days on average there is more than enough business there for American to run flights from at least Miami and one Northeast Hub profitably. The SJU and STT legs are both very competitive. Some also claim STT is at capacity? The airline offering direct service to EIS will be able to command at least some premium along with capturing some of the cost to get from STT or SJU that many are paying for services today that fall below their expectations. More than 300,000 overnight visitors is well more than enough to support your own jet services.

I have my doubts and concerns about the interim service between MIA and BVI. I expect some of the professional business services will use it. If there is not an attractive codeshare with American or a suitable other mainline carrier I have doubts for the business and the data you would get out of the experiment.

If fuel or demand really does turn out to be an issue? Watch for some flight to run MIA to EIS to SJU to the mainland. The passengers flying direct to Tortola will pay more cents per mile for their seat than the SJU and STT competitive fares and at least one airline will want that higher revenue per seat business.

Today air services from the East Coast to EIS are $700 or more and ten hours of travel time. That is a business opportunity the moment the runway is certified for the planes the airlines have and want to fly.

Mustique I go by boat. Whole different place, market and economy. Private Island with a population swing between 500 and 1,500. 100 houses total to rent all from the same management. One hotel, One Bar with a 3,200 foot runway.

St. Vincent, along with Barbados, is the mother ship and the primary 9,000 foot runway will open their shortly. If St. Vincent can get their act together that new 9,000 foot strip will be a major game changer for the charter fleets and much more.

Glenn, your analysis is, as usual, spot on. Another wrinkle is alliances and ff miles. Who wants to switch carriers en route and pay double baggage fees - as will happen with this phantom Miami carrier. Folks want all their flights on one ticket. If you fly Southwest to SJU, you need a separate ticket to Tortola, with separate baggage fees. And no guarantee if you miss a connection.

They also want to acquire and use ff miles to their advantage. AA and Delta miles won't get you to the BVI, but United will. Many folks build miles on one alliance, so they want to stick with that carrier. All this matters.

Contrary to Stormjib's assertion that St. Thomas' interest is opposed to that of the BVI, I think STT benefits from those BVI travelers, and would lose a lot if they disappeared. So they (except taxi drivers) have every reason to facilitate that traffic.

What is the excuse for St. Bart's?

St. Barts is a whole different game. One very high end French place. Most properties will not touch kids under 12 at least during the season. St. Barts has St, Martin and all their airlift right there. St, Barts is a 12 minute flight for those that must fly on nice planes both scheduled and private. There are also several nice ferries that run on schedule. Figure $100 per person each way. St. Barts is just one island with less than 10,000 residents. 70,000 visitors by air and ferry each year with another 130,000 arriving by boat. St. Barts gets the yachts many in the BVI hope to attract more of.

There are NO lines of any type or hassles with C&I. Rule of thumb to afford to live on the island in the hospitality industry you need two jobs paying at least 30 Euro an hour.



St. Barts is only a small fraction of the St. Martin airport traffic. Traffic that includes wide body jets direct from Europe.

SXM annual passenger volume is expected to grow to 1.95 million by 2020 from just under 1.8 million last year. The airport is also expecting aircraft movements to grow to anywhere from 69,000 to 75,000 a year by 2020, from 60,371 in 2014. SXM’s business-jet traffic is continuing to grow and is becoming less seasonal, with the airport beginning to see more business-jet movements in its June-August low season.

SXM Airport is expecting from 10,400 to 12,000 business-jet movements annually by 2020

[quote]StormJib said:
[quote]tothedogs said:
How do people get to other "high end" destinations like St. Bart's, Mustique etc.?



I see you replied to my post asking about your credentials but see no indication that you have any in your reply.

We have a senior airline pilot, people that live on the island in the chartering/hospitality industry and folks who have tons of money invested in the BVI who have the opposite take. I know some of these folks, successful business owners who are pretty familiar with the economics of a single destination (BVI) vs a "hub" (SJU and STT).. There'sa huge difference in landing planes in SJU ..entire Caribbean hub...STT ..St. Thomas, St. John (huge destination for the U.S. and where many here started), fSt Croix..and the BVI.. Your plan has a singular destination..BVI likely from one departure in North America likely Miami or Ft. Lauderdalewith very limited service and perhaps requiring the BVI to pay a carrier as you suggested to run this route at a high fare to attract high rollers. We all have opinions, but when everyone knew the poster was joking about the airline giving him a three week layover in SJU, you seemed to take that seriously and give options. Did you not understand the poster knew he was not going to be staying in PR for three weeks?

You are adamant about this and that's fine, opinions are like noses, but I am still curious about what you believe gives you any more insight than airline pilots, long time visitors using various access, property owners and island full time residents? just curious.

" 100+ seat jets and 300 plus miles is the secret of airline survival"

True...
Q: but what airline can fill 100 seats from a US gateway to EIS?
A: None.
Except from MIA. Maybe 1 r/t per day, not 2x

BVI does not have enough beds to put heads, or berths on boats, to fill those seats on the aisles, or faces in the windows of those jets.

You need to redo all your math. Over 200,000 travel to the BVI to sleep on boats each year. More in hotels and villas. Most of those visitors are coming from the Northeast. St. Lucia with barely 300,000 annual visitors supports multiple direct options from the US via jets.

You can't even begin to compare St. Lucia to Beef Island. St. Lucia has 5 times the area, 4 times the population 3 times the available guest accomodations and has a very active ferry service to 6 other islands. More than 1/3 of the arrivals are going to destinantions other than St. Lucia which will not be the case at EIS and St Lucia does not have an established airport with service to 10 US destinations 30 miles away.

You keep omitting the simple fact that Beef island can't support a instrument approach to the runway. The larger part 121 carriers are not coming if that's the case. You also cannibalize your own STT traffic reducing yields in a already low yield market.

Are there really 300,000 visitors or 300,000 visitor overnight days? Somewhat different. In any case with a tiny place like BVI vs SJU and the already targeted STT can't really see much real likely of EIS becoming a major draw ... even if the planes could land there. For anybody coming from the west a Miami route would offer nothing... Just more mainland connections and likely limit you to a red eye start. For us, major airline into SJU has been great. A new carrier into EIS may help but seaborne has done us well so far.

Let me preface this by saying that I know nothing about the airline business.

But a memory just came up. I believe that I have read that non-business flying, eg, YOU, going on vacation, is essentially subsidized by the much-higher-cost of business travel. So, tickets to (essentially) vacation-only destinations would have to cost more in order to break even or make a profit?

During 2015 over 393,000 visitors spent at least one night on one of the islands or a boat visiting one of the islands. Over 200,000 of those individual visitors are sleeping on boats. The overnight night day number would be much higher and of value to those renting boats and other beds.

The Caribbean and the BVI are primarily a hospitality destination for Northeast Coast US visitors and it is likely to stay that way. Even Houston is suspect as a market worth pursuing. The next potential market would be Europe with some home Latin or South America will play a part at some point. Martinique and St. Martin have wide body jets landing direct from Paris and Europe. I am not familiar with any Caribbean service from LAX. The business to focus on is Boston, Greater New York, and DC.

That is less true everyday. Most business leaders are done with paying a premium anywhere. Whether business or pleasure you will pay a premium when demand is high and supply does not meet demand. The best "deals" if they are any are when a plane must be re-positioned to take or meet a higher demand later that day or the next. Airlines are using tools and algorithms to eliminate those "deals" or any flight that travels at a loss.

Consider this the better corporate travel offices demand the airlines sell them tickets at the 21 day advance purchase price or bar their employees from traveling on those flights. Gone are the days where a business traveler from a sophisticated employer is sitting next to someone who paid far less. The airlines are now retaliating with privileges, status, upgrades, and miles based on how much you pay. So just like everything else the market will become efficient and we will all pay business and pleasure for what we get. What the airlines want to do in return is reduce even eliminate the short flights and smaller airplanes. Each landing and takeoff costs large dollars these days.

The other variable that will never be fully disclosed is the subsidies the US Government, cities, and other markets pay to get consistent daily service for an area.

When the dust and noise all settle the most likely outcome will be subsidized ferry and air services to meet the needs for the BVI to compete/succeed in the hospitality and business markets.

Here is a little cut and paste from the Harvard Business Review:

"In 2015, half of American Airlines' revenue came from 13% of its passengers. A very substantial portion of flyers are business flyers, for whom the company or customer has airfare rules. Air travel has become a commodity, and it is difficult to move upmarket when an increase in airfares (and service) would move you out of your customers' authorized purchase range."

Just like the food service, hotel room and other traveler markets the key it to avoid the most competitive commodity markets where you can. That is exactly the direction the BVI hopes to take allowing the DR, Mexico, Jamaica and others to have the most budget conscious package travelers. 2,000 mile legs even at 20 cents per passenger mile would be $400 per leg.

I have landed at all the airports you mentioned. They have unobstructed 6 mile straight in approach corridors. You keep ignoring that fact as if it does not exist. They also have not one but two types of instrument approaches which simplifies fuel planning.

I am no real pilot much less an FAA or other jurisdiction airport inspector... but how do the planes get on the ground at Reagan National?



The future approach to EIS/Tortola will only be determined in the design phase which will only be completed as part of the prime design build contract expect to be awarded by the end of the month.

What you have posted is a charted visual procedure. It is for noise abatement and restricted area avoidance. It is not an approach. There is a full ILS approach to DCA when needed. There is even a LDA to the south runway. There is no rising terrain landing north or south at DCA. Vastly different then EIS.

For those of you who have never done it here is what it looks like landing at Reagan National right in the center or DC.

https://youtu.be/AafNo3z5bUQ

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AafNo3z5bUQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

How do the pilots get the planes on the ground at PSP Palm Springs?

I am assuming that anything that a carrier might use would have a landing class of C so the maximum ILS glide path angle would be 3.6 degrees. A bit of math will calculate the maximum terrain height (OCS) at any distance from the runway. At 2 NM is 662' Quick Hill. OCS at that distance is 396' so about 270' will have to be taken off the top. At 3 nm is 852' Kingston Hill. OCS at 3nm is about 590' so another 260' will have to be removed from that mountain. I do not believe there is a grading budget for that in the bids.

BTW, Palm Springs has a 20 mile straight in 3 degree aproach to 13R and a 10 mile 3.2 degree with a 1.1 degree offset into 31L.