I would say it was fairly crowded the whole time we were there from Dec 28th through Jan 5th, less so after the 1st.

We didn't realize that things didn't get going on Orient Bay until late in the evening on NYE. We got to the textile portion around 7:30 and it was empty with the bars getting set up for their party. So we went to the asian place in the village to eat. When we got back to Papayago we walked in and ordered drinks. The tables were full of people and they were just starting the buffet at 10PM. The MC was good, and the guest performers interesting. The dance floor became crowded at 11:00 and we danced a bit and then left at 11:30 to beat the crowd and the gendarmes. Got home to our villa and the next door neighbors had fireworks until 1AM.