At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the distinct eye center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 57.7 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the dangerous core of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.
Reports from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate Irma continues to strengthen and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
Much as I hate to say it the fate of the BVI hinges on when this turn occurs. If it's a bit early and we get a 45 mile miss distance this will be a bad dream. If not it may turn out to be a nightmare. To all my BVI friends hoping with all I have for a turn soon! G