The North Swell forecast is extremely reliable 3 days in advance. 48 hours out it’s reliable almost to the hour that it will occur. I once stopped into CDB to pick up a crew member. A 8 foot swell was forecast to hit about midnight yet at 4 pm boats were coming in and taking Moorings. I spoke to one skipper picking a ball up next to us and told him condition would get nasty that night. He said they would give it a try anyway!
G