This comes up so much that I went and figured the odds.

They have been keeping track of hurricane strikes in St. Thomas for about 150 years. The peak of the season is very sharp and is the middle week of September. Because the peak is so sharp, there's a significant difference in the odds of a strike between early and late October.

By month, the odds of a named hurricane coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 0.5% per week in July, 1% per week in August, 2% per week in September, 1% per week in October, and 0.5% per week in November. The odds are exceedingly small in any other month of the year.

It's worth noting that over the decades the probability of a hurricane in the Atlantic has slightly declined.

Last year was highly unusual in that there was not a single Atlantic hurricane. NOAA really missed the boat on that one... they were predicting an above average season!

Hope that helps.

Here's a graphic...