Overnight the forecasts have changed significantly, now 3 of them have a CAT 3 hurricane, and 8 have a hurricane forecast. The ECMWF model has it passing over St. Croix midday next Saturday and the BVI will get over 30 knots of wind. The GFS model has a bigger hurricane, way out to the east and north and due to the wind circulation the BVI would only have 8 knots of wind on Saturday afternoon. I know which forecast I'd prefer (that's the "safety bias") but right now either is possible.