The hurricane forecast models (15 Oct, 2023) currently show little chance of this becoming a major issue for St. Martin. The HMNI model is usually pretty good, though; but the bifurcation point to the other models is sometime tomorrow and then it will become apparent which of the models is closest to this weather pattern. In addition, the only model that has this come close to hurricane force shows it going far north. All of the other models show a maximum of low- to mid-intensity tropical storm force winds.