Mal, it is a lot easier to predict what would happen on the shore facing a tsunami than the shore facing away. I used to think that being on the side away from a Tsunami would be safer but after the scientists reports on fukashima I am not so sure. In that event several villages on the back side of local islands were washed away as the wave split to encircled the islands and met on the back side forming huge surges.

I doubt that would happen in Apple Bay but in a really large tsunami from the southeast there will be a massive pile up of water trying to get through the Narrows. A possibile situation might be that it would set up what is called a coastal trapped edge wave that wraps around Great Thatch and slosh back and forth along the north shore. It would be good to know if the DDM has had any computer simulations run.