Relative to Hurricane risk...

It's simply a dice-roll.
Statistics have been collected on this since around 1850.
Odds are actually quite low.


The odds of a named storm coming within 50 nmi of St. Thomas is 2% per week in September, the peak of Hurricane season.

In August and October, the shoulder months, the odds are 1% per week.

In July and November the odds drop again by half... to 0.5% per week.

The odds are very low outside the July-Nov window.

One side note... Hurricane activity has been extremely low, way below average, for the last few years. There is little sign that this pattern is changing in the short term.