Well, this is not a fun one to post. But I thought this might be beneficial to some in this community.

Can't say I didn't expect something like this on the BVI's end, but how does a company like American Airlines not run the math on this?

A couple of thoughts...

The AA direct flights will likely be discontinued soon.

The BVI government will use this for the "We must extend the runway" campaign.

The aircraft they are using is marginal for that route. A dry runway with a significant headwind will be required for anything near a full load of passengers and luggage. Delta has an aircraft capable of using that runway (A220-100) but attempts by me to get them interested in that market by were met with zero interest. Here is what I sent them.

I know that network and marketing are sometimes not very receptive at Delta to outside input but I wondered what might be the best method to attempt to convince them to look into a specific route. The route in question would be ATL to EIS (British Virgin Islands). It is a route only Delta can serve because of the unique capabilities of the A220-100. The BVI tourists industry is booming. The market was once reasonably well served with American providing 250 to 370 seats a day via SJU. With the pullout of American Eagle from SJU the market became more restrictive and the fares increased. Options for travel are play roulette with a connection out of SJU or ferry from STT. Cape Air, Silver or Intercaribbean being the flight options at extremely high fares running from 1000 at the low end up to 2400 at the high end for coach with a very high cancelation rate or fly to STT and ferry. Both the ferry option and connection through SJU are proving so unpopular that travelers are paying inordinate amounts of money to book private air charters from SJU or private water taxi’s from ST Thomas. These charters can be thousands of dollars for a group of 4 to 10 people.
To provide additional background the BVI is not a destination for bargain hunters trying to fly to all inclusive resorts at low rates. The primary industry is Charter Boats. There are 800 plus charter boats based in the BVI with a 50% occupancy rate. Each boat probably averages 6 people onboard. These boats charter for 3000 to 50,000 a week with the average price probably in the 12,000 to 20,000 range. The secondary industry is Boutique resorts at high rates. In addition there are a large number of private boats owned by US citizens based in the BVI as well as Villas. These are very high net worth individuals who Delta might pull over to our FF program with this route. There are also a significant number of Europeans who travel the route and might choose to connect in ATL. The convenience of a direct flight from ATL to the British Virgin Islands would command a significant revenue premium over current very high travel costs to get there.
In addition to the above the BVI government has been actively seeking non stop service from the US. They are in talks with airlines to try and provide service non stop to South Florida. The problem again is the runway length in EIS at 4650 feet won’t support most aircraft on a non stop to the US. The BVI government spent 7 million dollars trying to help a startup airline fly the route with the Avro RJ85. The startup failed without any flights. Currently I understand they are willing to subsidize new service non stop from the US. I don’t however believe they are aware that Delta has an aircraft that can do it from ATL and I understand they have not approached us. This is they type of route the A220-100 is perfect for. Perhaps some of our A220 pilots can comment but I believe the aircraft can fly from 4650 feet on the 1500 mile flight to ATL based on performance charts and given the prevailing 10 to 20 knot tradewinds.
In summary I think this would be a great route for Delta with high yields and the potential to bring high income individuals over to Delta. ATL would offer a 1 stop connection into the British Virgin Islands for most US locations. In addition Delta could partner with the numerous charter companies in the BVI like the Moorings/Sunsail, Dream Yacht Charters, BVI yachts charters ect. on charter airfare packages. It might also be possible to get a startup subsidy from the BVI government. It could also easily be flown as a turn minimizing layover costs. Can this be forwarded to the appropriate individuals to at least take a look at?
Thanks

Spend money they don't have lengthening the runway to bring tourists to an island lacking running water, electricity, and decent roads.

And most likely turning Trellis Bay into a stagnant lagoon.

And available decently priced food to purchase

Here is the saga of the AA flights to Miami.
On Saturday the planes from Miami to beef island were delayed about three
hours because a cargo plane blew a tire on the runway at beef island

On Sunday they had to change the direction of takeoff on beef island because
of the wind so the bottom line is they had 380 foot less of runway so the
plane was weight restricted they had to take off with no baggage to Miami

On Monday the plane took off and went to San Juan probably to pick up fuel
again probably because it was weight restricted so they elected to take off
with very little fuel go to San Juan ,so they were in an hour and a half
late coming into Miami
American is not having a good week with their flights from Miami to BVI
andreturn

And to top it all off that guy managed to lose 2 grandkids.;)

I sound like a broken record..but I am sticking to STT and ferries and recommending that to all guests and friends.This is an expensive, extremely badly planned fiasco. And, while they are about it, the Gov in their wisdom, should cancel the $250,000 celebration and put that $$ to good use and not in their own pockets for a change.

Yes, definitely sounds like they'd better re-think that celebration, and see if they are going to have anything to celebrate about.

We are coming in on Silver tomorrow code share with AA. But going home they changed our flight to the direct from Beef to Miami. I just told my husband I'm glad I have air tags in case AA decides to extend my luggages stay on Beef.

Most likely if luggage needs to be left behind it will be routed to SJU and arrive a day late.

Wow - thanks for your efforts here George. I'm sorry you were unsuccessful because this would be great.

Here is the BVI Press Release on the matter for what it's worth -

https://bvi.gov.vg/media-centre/prevailing-winds-and-heat-delay-aa-flight-3989

So..as George says..these planes need perfect conditions to fly. I believe we live in the tropics. I watch wind direction change all the time. I have even heard it gets hot here!!!!IN the meantime..Stt is expanding and will even have air bridges to planes. Why doesnt the BVI Gov take advantage of that. Have a designated greeter for BVI bound passengers. Have a designated taxi waiting for them. Have designated seats on the ferry. Do a deal with Michael at the Petite Pump Romm to give them refreshments while they wait.

Now, gee, Mal, don't suggest things that make sense!

That is interesting about air bridges at STT. When is that supposed to happen?

GeorgeC1 - You seem to have your finger on the pulse of airlines....With unfavorable departure conditions (heat and wind direction) reasonably likely in the summer months, do you think AA has, or is, developing back up plans? Like adding more equipment and limiting seats sold? Or do they just plan on stopping at SJU to add fuel when the wind shifts? Fuel is probably cheaper in PR but I don't know if that offsets the cost of the stop....and potential missed connections in MIA.

Have to agree with Mal, STT seems like the safer bet (in addition to being less costly).

I would bet they start building in fuel stops in SJU if the forecast is unfavorable. This is actually common out of STT on the odd wind day. Fuel price could be a factor but airlines never pay the pump rate on gas and I suspect AA locked in a step discount at EIS.

George, by then I'll be home in South Louisiana. And my luggage will still be somewhere south of me!

Fuel $9.55 at EIS and $450 at STT probably even cheaper at SJU But maybe the airlines get really great rates. Like 50%???

For my November trip I am flying AA Miami to STT. Cost about $425 R/T I cannot justify $1300 r/t just to get to Beef.

We have done the trip from Miami to STT about 75 times, used the local ferry to Tortola and NEVER had a problem. Manpot has likely done it a few hundred times. Listen to him.

I dream of a complementary shuttle from STT baggage claim around the corner to a ferry dock at the VI Ports Authority in Lindberg Bay and 80 passenger fast ferries leaving for West End every hour from noon to 7PM. Much cheaper than extending EIS.

Every hour? That is a dream. 🙂

Every two hours?

$$$$ but available ***shuttle from STT baggage claim around the corner to a ferry dock***

https://www.sttwatertaxis.com/

Last Mile Water Taxi staff will meet you at St Thomas airport baggage claim
Our dedicated, private taxi service will usher you to your private (or shared) water taxi in Crown Bay Marina or Red Hook location and take you immediately on your way to the BVI.

STT used to be the same way until they cut the mountain down and extended the runway. Beef too before they did the same thing. And St. Vincent they can only take off and land in one direction which may be downwind. Landing in Virgin Gorda alweays a thrill when you think you might hit the rooftops on short final. It's all part of the adventure of traveling to de iluns, mon

You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one . . .