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Re: Hurricane Danny
[Re: Eric_Hill]
#65258
08/20/2015 11:42 AM
08/20/2015 11:42 AM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 11,585
Eric_Hill
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Discussion about how it may weaken:
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
Danny's cloud pattern has continued to improve since the previous advisory, and a 10 n mi diameter eye has become embedded in the center of a small central dense overcast. Water vapor imagery indicates that upper-level outflow has become more symmetrical. The initial intensity of 65 kt is based on NHC objective Dvorak classifications of T4.1-T4.2 using an eye feature. Conventional and microwave satellite images indicate that Danny is an unusually small tropical cyclone.
Satellite fixes indicate that Danny is now moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt. The latest model guidance remains in very good agreement on Danny moving west-northwestward for the next 48-72 hours toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 60W longitude. A mid- to upper-level trough north of Bermuda is forecast by the global models to begin lifting out to the north in 96-120 hours, which should allow the subtropical ridge to the north of Danny to build back westward, forcing Danny on a more westward track on days 4 and 5. The NHC official forecast track is essentially an update of the previous advisory through 72 hours, but was shifted a little north of the previous track after that in agreement with the consensus model TVCN.
Danny's compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are notoriously difficult to forecast. Low-shear conditions are expected to continue for the next 36 hours or so, which argues for some further strengthening during that time. However, the cyclone continues to be surrounded by dry mid-level air, which could penetrate into the core and disrupt the intensification process. By 48 hours and beyond, the vertical wind shear is forecast to become southerly to southwesterly and increase to near 15 kt. As a result, Danny is expected to be weakening as it approaches the Leeward Island. The official intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity somewhat higher and earlier than the previous advisory, ending up close to the IVCN consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 12.5N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
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Re: Hurricane Danny
[Re: Eric_Hill]
#65259
08/20/2015 12:24 PM
08/20/2015 12:24 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,103 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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Central Florida!
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Closest point of approach now listed as 55 miles from SXM, on Monday evening. By that time it is predicted to weaken, but be careful out there, people!
Carol Hill
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Re: Hurricane Danny
[Re: islandgem]
#65263
08/20/2015 07:41 PM
08/20/2015 07:41 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,103 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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The 5 PM tracking takes it quite a bit further south than the previous one, but still only a tropical storm as it passes SXM..
Carol Hill
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Re: Hurricane Danny
[Re: Carol_Hill]
#65264
08/21/2015 10:30 AM
08/21/2015 10:30 AM
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Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,657 Brookfield, CT.
pat
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Lets hope and pray it stays that way...... and as badly as the island needs the rain, even a tropical storm can create a lot of havoc due to flooding from excess water and water run-off.
Respectfully,
pat
"Always keep your words soft and sweet, just in case you have to eat them."
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Re: Hurricane Danny, now Cat 3!
[Re: Eric_Hill]
#65266
08/21/2015 02:03 PM
08/21/2015 02:03 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,103 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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As of the 2 PM special update, Danny is now a cat 3, at 115 mph, but still predicted to weaken to TS status before reaching the islands.
Carol Hill
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Re: Hurricane Danny, now Cat 3!
[Re: Carol_Hill]
#65267
08/21/2015 02:31 PM
08/21/2015 02:31 PM
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,924 New England (home), St. Maarte...
jmbcomms
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New England (home), St. Maarte...
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448 WTNT64 KNHC 211747 TCUAT4
HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR HURRICANE...
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts.
No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
$$ Forecaster Beven/Roberts
Jeff Berger Visiting SXM Since 1978
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Re: Hurricane Danny, now Cat 3!
[Re: jmbcomms]
#65268
08/21/2015 02:33 PM
08/21/2015 02:33 PM
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Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 916
badbenni
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Re: Hurricane Danny, now Cat 3!
[Re: DavidinChelseaMA]
#65271
08/22/2015 11:59 AM
08/22/2015 11:59 AM
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Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 837 Florida
wilsonck
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A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for portions of the nothern leeward islands, including St. Maarten.
Last edited by wilsonck; 08/22/2015 12:00 PM.
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Re: Hurricane Danny, down to 75 mph
[Re: Eric_Hill]
#65273
08/22/2015 06:19 PM
08/22/2015 06:19 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,103 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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From the 5 PM advisory, Danny is now down to 75 MPH. And this statement: HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- "RAINFALL: Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over the Leeward Islands through Monday." Let us hope so. Rainfall would be a great thing!
Carol Hill
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Re: Danny is back to a tropical storm
[Re: Eric_Hill]
#65275
08/22/2015 09:06 PM
08/22/2015 09:06 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,103 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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Danny is back to a tropical storm, as of 8 PM.. But!! The latest track takes it right over SXM, on Monday evening. So, be careful everyone!!! Here's hoping the ilons get some rain from this and nothing else. ..
Last edited by Carol_Hill; 08/22/2015 09:14 PM.
Carol Hill
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Re: Danny is back to a tropical storm
[Re: Carol_Hill]
#65276
08/22/2015 10:57 PM
08/22/2015 10:57 PM
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Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 1,697
DonLinda
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Hopes for rain in extreme drought Puerto Rico... "The news was disheartening for Puerto Rico residents such as 88-year-old Gloria Rodriguez, who has struggled with water-rationing measures in which hundreds of thousands of people receive water only twice a week." http://www.aol.com/article/2015/08/22/pu...Lid%3D713558805
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11 AM advisory
[Re: Eric_Hill]
#65279
08/23/2015 10:48 AM
08/23/2015 10:48 AM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,103 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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"Tropical Storm DANNY Public Advisory 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2015
...DANNY CONTINUES TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 57.3W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM E OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A tropical storm watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected, in this case within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service."
My comment---Danny's track seems to be a bit south of the previous track and the closest point of approach at this point places SXM outside the limit of tropical storm force winds, in part due to the small size of the storm. Interesting that the tropical storm watch for St. Martin has been discontinued, but the one for Sint Maarten remains in effect.
Carol Hill
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Re: 11 AM advisory
[Re: Barbara]
#65282
08/23/2015 11:37 AM
08/23/2015 11:37 AM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,103 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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Yes, the CPA has been getting further away with each update. I do hope you at least get some rain.
Carol Hill
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Re: Danny is back to a tropical storm
[Re: Eric_Hill]
#65283
08/23/2015 02:29 PM
08/23/2015 02:29 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,103 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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98 L and another one, are right behind Danny... Looks like things will be interesting for a while yet..
Carol Hill
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Re: Danny is back to a tropical storm
[Re: Carol_Hill]
#65284
08/23/2015 02:34 PM
08/23/2015 02:34 PM
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Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 280 Lithuania
Julius
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2pm Sun. Tropical Update - ~TROPICAL STORM WATCH for SSS Islands, TROPICAL STORM WARNING for Surrounding Islands~
As of 2pm, the CENTER of Tropical Storm Danny is... * Located: 15.8N 58.1W (+/- 305 miles ESE of St. Maarten) * Max. winds: 50mph * Moving: W at 15mph * Forecasted track: just south of St. Maarten on Monday, if it continues on its present track.
Tropical Storm Watch issued for: St. Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.
Tropical Storm Warning issued for: Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Danny is forecast to continue weakening slowly, yet still bring some rain & gusty winds; -- as of late tonight into Monday.
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Re: Danny is back to a tropical storm
[Re: Barbara]
#65290
08/23/2015 07:26 PM
08/23/2015 07:26 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,103 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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Actually, that order is only as to the Dutch side and the French side doesn't even have a tropical storm watch, as far as I know. So, I'm thinking things on the French side will be open, at least some of them. (Not advocating people put themselves in danger, but just facts..)
Closest point of approach now is listed at 128 miles from SXM at 5 PM tomorrow, so to me, this looks to be a non-event, except possibly as a rain-maker.
Last edited by Carol_Hill; 08/23/2015 07:31 PM.
Carol Hill
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Re: Danny is back to a tropical storm
[Re: Marcheall]
#65294
08/23/2015 10:59 PM
08/23/2015 10:59 PM
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Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 13,147 Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
islandgem
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Lots of storms to watch coming up in line. I think Danny still needs attention since Gonzalo was down graded and soon after it was a hurricane without warning. Strange things can happen when Mother Nature gets involved! Hoping for the best, but prepare for the worst.
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Re: Danny is now a tropical depression
[Re: Eric_Hill]
#65295
08/24/2015 08:18 AM
08/24/2015 08:18 AM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,103 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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Danny is now back to a tropical depression and the tropical storm watch for SXM has been discontinued. But it looks like Erika could be a named storm as early as today!
Carol Hill
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