What will the changes be relative to tourists?

Edward--sorry to say, I haven't been following the situation in Zim. Is there a decent chance the old man is going away?

No matter what happens with the govt. or that "election" in Zimbabwee it will still be unsafe for tourists.

Read all the State Dept. Warnings!
You, in essense have no rights there.
You may be arrested for taking what you think is an innocent tourist picture.
Chances are the US State Dept. won't know nor be notified of your arrest.

Even if the government changes somewhat, the trigger happy, gestapo like security and police forces will not.

The last U.S. citizen I tried to give that advise to, was going back there on his 3rd trip there, a lot of the trip being of a humanitarian nature.

His name was Richard Gilman.
He was shot and killed by Zimbabwee Security Forces for no apparent reason other than they were trigger happy.

I read initial reports from what that govt. said what happened. After seeing reports of what really happened, the Zimbabwee govt. was full of B.S.
Undisciplined, ill-trained, unprofessional, trigger-happy security forces, where civil rights are meaningless.

It's your life, do you want to gamble with it?

Sorry I have to disagree Rasputin.

As a tourist I would go there (despite what the SD says if you follow thier warnings literally you'd go nowhere)a as long as you stay out of any political demeonstrations and avoid discussions on such subjects I think you'd be fine. Sickness and automobile transport would be a far greater threat.

If you are prudent with regards to your cash and you had a competent guide (who stands to gain from your safety)and the businesses you would patronize I believe you would in fact be afforded greater protection than a common citizen.

I've experienced these actualities more than once in places deemed by our DOS as *No go* destinations.

Obviously there are degrees and grey zones but I'm leary of blanket statements also because I know of a few individuals that hafve recently spent time in Zim, Kenya and Tanzania that had little more problems than the usual issues presented to travelers in Africa, usually due to lacking infrastructure.

Edit to add: Before you site your friends death let me point out that they were part of a "Humanitarian" group. That is a noble cause yet in terms of nuetrality NGO's are commonly viewed as part of an "Outside agenda" (See Chloe's Ark members in Chad recently and how thier benevolence was viewed simplyas outsiders)which rises these people above simple travelers.

[color:"blue"]"Everything impossible, is possible.....with money."[/color]

Stiv:

So how do you go anywhere in the country if not by automobile? By foot or do you ride a donkey?

My friend agreed with you and used much of the same reasoning and more. His widow does not.
I couldn't change his opinion and I won't try to change yours. Just be careful if you bring a camera, you may be arrested for "practicing journalism without a license", and the U.S. embassy probably won't be notified of your arrest, nor will they be allowed to visit you.

As for anyone else here who may be interested,
back to the original posters question, of what Zimbabwe may be like if there is a change of government.

Who knows when it will change?
Regardless of the election just held, Robert Mugabe may hold on to power, as he has in the past, by fraud, intimidation, and suppressive force. And a new government may keep things under control for a while by being as suppressive as him.

IMHO, all I can see for any new government, for probably ten years or more, is insurmountable problems.

The economy is in shambles, its’ institutions corrupt, an any platform for any type of truly representative government based on the rule of law simply does not exist.

The backbone of Zimbabwe’s economy was agriculture. That productivity has been destroyed by the so-called “land reforms” in 2000. This is an important point, large scale commercial farming has been destroyed by “re-distribution” and that productivity will most likely NEVER recover. The country can no longer feed itself and will now always be dependant on imports and handouts, or have mass food shortages and all that goes with that.

As for the rest of the economy and the productivity of the people, in brief:
HyperInflation ! As of January 2008, the IMF estimates Zimbabwe’s annual inflation rate at 150,000 %. That is NOT a typo error.
Yes, One Hundred Fifty Thousand percent!
Unemployment at 85 %.
Life expectancy the lowest in the world.
World’s highest rate of HIV/AIDS (close to 25% of Zimbabwe’s population).
And it is estimated that 60% of the wildlife has died since 2000 due to poaching, massive deforestation, etc.
This was not too long ago, one of the richest countries in Africa, based on an economy dominated by Agriculture, that sector strength has been pretty much permanently destroyed.

Some time long in the future, possibly when some long term political stability has occurred, their best chance of an economic recovery, may be in exporting mineral wealth that the country does have. But that will require financial investment to occur.

And since this is a travel forum, here are my final thoughts on this.

IMHO, Zimbabwe is a powder keg just waiting to EXPLODE !

And when it does you don’t want to be there.
Possibly mass riots, mob rule, civil war, paramilitary atrocities, massive food and fuel shortages, regional warlords, etc.
A ticking time-bomb, that nobody knows when it will go off.

It is a land-locked county, and if you think the U.S. Marines will come and rescue you,
think more in terms of another African nation, Somalia, and “Black-Hawk down”.

Don't forget (and it easy for most to do just that) one of the reasons their economy is in a shambles is crazy Bob has rejected every crumb of aid that could potentially be offered.

Most sources not the least of wwhich is Great Britain has always wanted a stable Zim, if Bob goes this will start once again and you simply cannot minimize the impact that and whomever elses aid would filter in from countries like the USA and other nations in Europe that want Zim to suceed.

As it stands now they get almost nothing and even thier nieghbor South Africa would be a positive force with crazy Bob in power thier hands are tied.

Did I mention I know and have talked to some folks that have been there with NGO's and as simply travellers?

I really don't think (and hope) that this apocolyptic vision you have going is going to happen, and you simply cannot compare Somalia to Zim (or anybody really) as Zim has some formal government and Somalia has had none since around 1990.

As to vehicular travel my point is whether you are in Zim or in CT it statistically IS the most danger laden activity you will engage in on a daily basis, it really does not matter where you are except in degrees of danger.

Their economy is in shambles because crazy Bob has destroyed it. Foreign aid will not restore its' destroyed (agriculture based)economy.

I am afraid whatever government to be, may colapse in part, due to overwhelming economic discontent and disfunction, and chaos will prevail.

I too hope I am wrong.
But if I am not, I wouldn't want to be there when it happens.

I got this e mail from a friend last night. I deleted some names

Dear Family and Friends,
Well never thought I would have to do this email do not know if it may be my
last from our farm "Deleted"
At 3.30pm today a lorry load of so called Mugabe brain washed "war-vets"
arrived at our gate to take over our land, equipment and pedigree cattle.
This crazy action is occurring in a country where there is v little food
being produced !
It is now 6 pm and they have been singing their war songs at our gate for
three hours, the atmosphere is violent and more and more of them have
arrived.
We managed to get our daughter Deleted and her young son deleted" into
town and for now it is just Deleted and myself, plus our dogs remaining in the
house on the farm.
They have said that our labour will not work tomorrow . They have demanded
that Deleted must kill them a sheep, which he has flatly refused to do, so
no doubt they will simply kill one for
themselves.
None of our paid labour will even attmpt to come to work tomorrow either!
Mr R who lives south of us is also under siege at the same time
as us, so this siege of the last remaining whites is an orchestrated plan.
The Deleteds and Deleteds are in the same boat. They have already taken
over Deleted's Guest Lodge, and deleted and his wife Deleted are now in town.




Please pass this email on to as many folk as you would like to , this
illegal action must become "known" thru out the world .
If you know of anyone in the Media, please ensure that they become aware
/are alerted to this evil tyrant's actions to keep power at all costs.
We have to let the world know what is happening.
As they load shedded us and I phoned my friend in the
Zesa Faults and he phoned Harare and they have switched us back on.
So for now please keep all of us in your prayers and we will send a follow
up tomorrow if we are able.
Our love to you all.

A link you may be interested in, for lots of current news on Zimbabwe is here: http://www.zimbabwesituation.com/index.html

I hate to say this to you, but there have been times in history, where people have had a chance to get out before it was too late. I certainly to not know for sure, but this may be that time for your friend and his family.

May they remain safe, my best wishes for them.