It really has a lot to do with how people adhere to the precautions to slow the spread of the virus. I will speak from the perspective of the U.S. We are taking extreme but necessary steps to slow the rate but until everyone buys into the reality, it will take longer than it should. A very critical aspect is the younger generation taking the proper precautions. Because of their age they are asymptomatic (except in the very rare cases). Because they are asymptomatic and because they are very social the virus can spread rapidly and they can unknowingly transmit the virus to people who are not of the health to properly deal with it. That is the biggest danger. People that feel symptoms generally quarantine themselves.

Also, we really can't go by much by the news out of China. They are constantly changing the narrative to their benefit.