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Re: Hurricane IRMA
[Re: sxmmartini]
#139047
08/31/2017 02:49 PM
08/31/2017 02:49 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,934 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,934
Central Florida!
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I moved this here from the People Talk forum and will lock the other thread. This one looks like a really bad one. Fingers crossed!
Carol Hill
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Re: Hurricane IRMA
[Re: sxmmartini]
#139050
08/31/2017 06:56 PM
08/31/2017 06:56 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,934 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,934
Central Florida!
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Interesting. Don't remember seeing a video like that before from a Sint Maarten official. Hopefully everyone will prepare and it won't be needed..
Carol Hill
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Re: Hurricane IRMA
[Re: sail2wind]
#139052
08/31/2017 09:46 PM
08/31/2017 09:46 PM
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Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,028 Leverick Bay
NickR
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,028
Leverick Bay
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Evan / Nina...just days away!I have your spot reserved for the weekend?
Nick Willis "Mine Host" Leverick Bay Resort & Marina
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Re: Hurricane IRMA
[Re: DavidinChelseaMA]
#139056
09/01/2017 08:08 AM
09/01/2017 08:08 AM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,934 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,934
Central Florida!
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The official NHC forecast doesn't go that far in advance, but it sure looks much closer than that to me. This is what I see on Storm Carib's 'how close can it get'.
Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W): The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.5N, 58.0W or about 339.5 miles (546.3 km) from your location. This is corresponding with the 120 hour position of the 5-day forecast (Wednesday, September 6 at 5:00AM AST).
Just for 'fun'... If the storm would continue on this track, the extrapolated closest point (X-CPA) is estimated at 18.6N, 63.0W or about 39.4 miles (63.4 km) from your location, where it can be in about 5 days, 23 hours and 20 minutes from now (Thursday, September 7 at 7:24AM AST, be aware that this location is not part of the official forecast and is prone to large errors).
40 miles away from a monster hurricane is WAY too close.
Carol Hill
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Re: Hurricane IRMA
[Re: irina]
#139058
09/01/2017 10:15 AM
09/01/2017 10:15 AM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,934 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,934
Central Florida!
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Agreed, this one could be really bad. And best wishes to those in Texas and Louisiana, reeling from Harvey.
Carol Hill
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Re: Hurricane IRMA
[Re: Carol_Hill]
#139059
09/01/2017 10:53 AM
09/01/2017 10:53 AM
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Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 1,697
DonLinda
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 1,697
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Re: Hurricane IRMA
[Re: DonLinda]
#139060
09/01/2017 11:02 AM
09/01/2017 11:02 AM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,934 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
Traveler
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Traveler
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Posts: 82,934
Central Florida!
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It appears, according to the 11 AM Discussion on the NHC website, that there are two distinct groups of thought on Irma, one taking it more north and one staying south.
"There is a noticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and corrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and HMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on the southern side of the guidance. Thus, the forecast will stay similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster mentioned above. "
Carol Hill
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Re: Hurricane IRMA
[Re: DonLinda]
#139066
09/01/2017 03:14 PM
09/01/2017 03:14 PM
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Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 5,088 Massachusetts
boucharda
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 5,088
Massachusetts
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To me that model looks like it is a hit on SXM and adjacent islands. The eye doesn't have to pass over the island to cause severs damage
Last edited by boucharda; 09/01/2017 03:17 PM.
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Re: Hurricane IRMA
[Re: sasasal]
#139068
09/01/2017 04:29 PM
09/01/2017 04:29 PM
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Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,659 United States of America
bdeeley
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,659
United States of America
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Cat Fight
<img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" />
Be Happy! Simply because you deserve to be. 😁
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Re: Hurricane IRMA
[Re: sasasal]
#139069
09/01/2017 04:52 PM
09/01/2017 04:52 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,934 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,934
Central Florida!
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OK, guys let's just dial this down.. This is a very serious topic, and we need to focus on the issue.
Carol Hill
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Re: Hurricane IRMA
[Re: sail2wind]
#139072
09/02/2017 07:51 AM
09/02/2017 07:51 AM
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Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 402
DavidinChelseaMA
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 402
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From Mike's Weather page, my go-to site for severe weather updates: "Overnight models continue to build more consistency on future path of Irma. She could skirt just north of the Lesser Antilles... with PR/DR/Haiti close... then the Bahamas/US? The Gulf is looking less of a threat each hour. The SE and east coast of U.S. not as much unfortunately. High pressure showing up more in recent runs blocking Irma and keeping her more NW. Lots to watch. She is expected to fluctuate in intensity but still be a major most the way."
Last edited by DavidinChelseaMA; 09/02/2017 08:02 AM.
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