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Moring Stuff About Irma's Position
[Re: Alysonma]
#139084
09/03/2017 06:50 AM
09/03/2017 06:50 AM
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,921 New England (home), St. Maarte...
jmbcomms
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 5,921
New England (home), St. Maarte...
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She's moving SW now toward the islands. If that were to continue she'd slam into Barbuda head on. If she makes a slight turn... ugh. Hopefully she will turn right and head north of the island. No matter what this looks to be very, very close. If you're on the island, stock up and be ready - & Godspeed.
Last edited by jmbcomms; 09/03/2017 06:52 AM.
Jeff Berger Visiting SXM Since 1978
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Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position
[Re: sasasal]
#139088
09/03/2017 08:50 AM
09/03/2017 08:50 AM
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Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 163 Philly
PKwx
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 163
Philly
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This is not the time for conjecture from arm chair meteorologists. At some point a single model or even a single model run is going to display a disaster scenario at sometime for someone. The forecast put out the the NHC are based on many model runs and model types, model performance history and the lasted data. A team of Hurricane meteorologists and scientists deliberate and come to consensus on the forecast because lives and economies are at stake based on their forecasts. There is reason why their forecast only goes out 5-days and they draw an uncertainty cone. They are not media weather announcers or meteorologist looking to say I got the location of the landfall right before anybody else. Just read the technical forecast discussion that goes into the forecast http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/030849.shtml?Yes, it looks ominous for St Martin and preparation is advised. But still a lot of uncertainty as to the radius of effect as its such a compact storm. The East Coast, the odds the US is in play verses going out to sea are increasing. Its the peak of Hurricane season, we should be prepared, plan and have a Plan B but not panic.
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Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position
[Re: PKwx]
#139089
09/03/2017 09:15 AM
09/03/2017 09:15 AM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,902 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,902
Central Florida!
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I don't blame anyone who owns property on the island, or anyone who cares deeply about the island or it's people, for being pretty freaked right now. People can only prepare as best as they can and hope and pray this thing passes them by.
Carol Hill
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Re: Moring Stuff About Irma's Position
[Re: irina]
#139091
09/03/2017 11:11 AM
09/03/2017 11:11 AM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 11,585
Eric_Hill
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 11,585
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Yes keep fingers crossed. The next 72 hours should determine a lot of things, based on the 11am NHC information. From the NHC: A strong high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic is steering Irma west-southwestward or 255/12 kt. This general motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. After that time, Irma is forecast to turn westward, then west-northwestward in about 72 hours as it approaches the western portion of the ridge. and While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the guidance suggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h. This will affect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands, and interests on those islands should continue to monitor Irma's progress.
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Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin
[Re: Kennys]
#139101
09/03/2017 06:47 PM
09/03/2017 06:47 PM
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Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,649 Brookfield, CT.
pat
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Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,649
Brookfield, CT.
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Keeping my fingers crossed for you and for all the people of the island. With each local update here, it looks worse and worse for the island. Lots of prayers and good wishes coming your way. This is one time I truly hope and pray our forecasters have gotten it wrong again.
And to all the vacationers who have never seen the devastation a major storm can do across the island, please be smart and be safe and don't allow yourselves to let your guard down with regard to this storm. Hunker down in your resort and be safe.
And lastly, if you can get a flight out ahead of it, even if it's coming only remotely near the island, DO SO ASAP and don't let yourself get stuck there. I wish I could remember how many days the airport was closed during Luis but it was a wait for those there trying to get out and for those islanders away trying to get back home again. If the storm should come across the island you are pretty much on your own. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" />
Last edited by pat; 09/03/2017 09:02 PM.
Respectfully,
pat
"Always keep your words soft and sweet, just in case you have to eat them."
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Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin
[Re: pat]
#139103
09/03/2017 07:41 PM
09/03/2017 07:41 PM
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Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 7,376
SXMWendell
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 7,376
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Being through a hurricane on island. Get off at all costs BEFORE it arrives. Don't make excuses of not leaving. Because after the hurricane/ storm your vacation is finished anyhow. If that is not possible, fill the car with gas, buy non perishable food to eat,buy a lot of bottled water, buy a multi band radio to listen to weather updates so you have an idea of whats going on, buy a couple of flashlights AND buy a lot of batteries to power them. Even after the hurricane goes through you will not get on the next flight out. The airlines will put the persons from the canceled flights on empty seats available on the post flights leaving the island. And since most flights are full now days this could take a while to get off the island. I was lucky enough to have a closet with concrete walls in the middle of the villa I was at to ride through the hurricane. video here Wendell
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Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin
[Re: SXMWendell]
#139104
09/03/2017 07:49 PM
09/03/2017 07:49 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,902 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,902
Central Florida!
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Wendell--Thanks. I don't remember seeing that video before. Where were you staying?
Carol Hill
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Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin
[Re: Carol_Hill]
#139105
09/03/2017 07:51 PM
09/03/2017 07:51 PM
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Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 7,376
SXMWendell
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 7,376
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Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin
[Re: moxie]
#139108
09/03/2017 09:22 PM
09/03/2017 09:22 PM
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Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 402
DavidinChelseaMA
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 402
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Island 92 just stated that on Wednesday morning, "in the wee hours until the afternoon" the storm will be heading west, just to the north of SXM, at approx 78 miles away. The reason that number - 78 - is important, is that the hurricane force winds extend approximately 35 miles out from the center, so 78 miles is too far away, by a little more than double, for the storm to actually [b][b][/b][/b]impact with hurricane force wind. Granted, storms wobble, and everybody still needs to be PREPARED, but this is certainly a very reasonable glimmer of hope that the island may only experience tropical force wind. This being said, there is still a HURRICANE WATCH in effect, so, to repeat: be prepared and stay safe.
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Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin
[Re: SXMWendell]
#139109
09/03/2017 09:43 PM
09/03/2017 09:43 PM
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Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 4,220 self-quarantine
Rasputin
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 4,220
self-quarantine
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SXMWendell said:Being through a hurricane on island. Get off at all costs BEFORE it arrives. Don't make excuses of not leaving. Because after the hurricane/ storm your vacation is finished anyhow. If that is not possible, fill the car with gas, buy non perishable food to eat,buy a lot of bottled water, buy a multi band radio to listen to weather updates so you have an idea of whats going on, buy a couple of flashlights AND buy a lot of batteries to power them. Even after the hurricane goes through you will not get on the next flight out. The airlines will put the persons from the canceled flights on empty seats available on the post flights leaving the island. And since most flights are full now days this could take a while to get off the island. I was lucky enough to have a closet with concrete walls in the middle of the villa I was at to ride through the hurricane. video here Wendell My unsolicited advice, to agree with but add to Wendell's post: If power goes out, credit cards may not work, if you don't have cash, go to an ATM and get some now. If power goes off for an extended period of time, then there will be no water pressure, which means no water! As Wendell said, buy bottled water now; but also, if you have a bathtub where you are staying, fill it with tap water now... you can use that water to put a bucket full in the toilet so it flushes! Without water, toilets do not flush, that can be a problem after a major storm. Wendell mentions non perishable food. OK maybe a loaf of bread that will get mold after a few days..... Don't forget peanut butter and crackers... you would be amazed how long you can live off of that. Maybe add some bananas and nuts.... you have to think no electricity which means no refrigeration. If you have a gas or charcoal grill, freeze some hamburgers or hot dogs to use later. And as Wendell mentioned: flashlights and batteries. That's my 2 cents worth, for all on island, be safe.
Rah Rah Rasputin They put some poison into his wine He drank it all and said "I feel fine"
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Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin
[Re: Rasputin]
#139110
09/03/2017 09:47 PM
09/03/2017 09:47 PM
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Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,649 Brookfield, CT.
pat
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,649
Brookfield, CT.
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The tent camper in me says great suggestions, Raspy, and particularly regarding the cash vs CC's vs ATMs. During hurricane Hugo many of the banks in SC were closed for weeks and cash was truly king to those who had the foresight to stock up on it. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" />
Respectfully,
pat
"Always keep your words soft and sweet, just in case you have to eat them."
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Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin
[Re: PelicanPirate]
#139113
09/04/2017 07:01 AM
09/04/2017 07:01 AM
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Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 1,562 Long Island, NY
RICKnGRACE_LI_NY
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 1,562
Long Island, NY
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This morning Storm Carib closest point tool has Irma 23 miles. That is way too close for comfort. My guess is if you haven't gotten out by now, you're probably not going to be able to.
There's a lot of good advice given above. Pay attention to it and please stay safe. Prayers are with you all, both Islanders and Vacationers.
Rick and Grace
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Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin
[Re: RICKnGRACE_LI_NY]
#139114
09/04/2017 07:38 AM
09/04/2017 07:38 AM
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Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 474 Maryland
Jim_Laraine
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 474
Maryland
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At least if Irma passes on the NE side of the island, the forward motion of the storm will subtract from the counterclockwise wind rotation (for northern hemisphere). Might not help much but definitely do not want a pass on the SW side which would increase effective wind speed. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html
Last edited by Jim_Laraine; 09/04/2017 07:40 AM.
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Re: Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin
[Re: mahokid]
#139116
09/04/2017 08:05 AM
09/04/2017 08:05 AM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,902 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
Traveler
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Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,902
Central Florida!
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Take care, stay safe! Please let us know how you are, if you can.
Carol Hill
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