Where is 93L now - is it on the map you provided ?

It is just coming off the African coast and has a long way to go.

These are just computer models.

It is showing the same track as hurricane Luis 1995 <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Yikes.gif" alt="" />

Here's the NOAA view of it. I assume 93L is the one that shows up. If it keeps moving at 15mph it won't get to the Caribbean longitudes for at least 6 days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

It is expected to be upgraded on the 11am report. Have to watch it for the next couple of days to determine if it will be a problem or a fish storm.

Scary that it's moving that slowly; it has way too much time to strengthen before it makes landfall.

The issue is how far west that big Atlantic high will extend. It will decide where Irma actually goes, and Irma is growing more intense every hour.

I moved this here from the People Talk forum and will lock the other thread. This one looks like a really bad one. Fingers crossed!

I remember Louis like it was yesterday. the Island was crippled for a very long time. boats overturned in the water, houses crumbled all over the island. We who have a home could not get there to see or do anything, as no one was able to enter except med help... It took at least three years to see some normal on Island. Roofs gone, lots of local housing gone. All businesses down for a long time... I can pray that this does not happen, but than again, Louis sat on the Island for three days of pounding, worst ever. Please stay away, St.M. can not endure another major hurricane for sure...

Interesting. Don't remember seeing a video like that before from a Sint Maarten official. Hopefully everyone will prepare and it won't be needed..

it is 3000 miles away

Evan / Nina...just days away!I have your spot reserved for the weekend?

Pretty much every model now has it curving north of the entire island chain. Euro has a more westward motion, and is considered an excellent model usually, but there is the wisdom of the majority as far as all the other models showing it curving north.

I have a pic from Hurricane Luis 1995 it was taken on oyster pond road looking down on pre Oyster Bay Beach Resort. The Great House next to Busbys is in the pic. Oyster Pond yacht club was there as well.

The official NHC forecast doesn't go that far in advance, but it sure looks much closer than that to me. This is what I see on Storm Carib's 'how close can it get'.

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.5N, 58.0W or about 339.5 miles (546.3 km) from your location. This is corresponding with the 120 hour position of the 5-day forecast (Wednesday, September 6 at 5:00AM AST).


Just for 'fun'... If the storm would continue on this track, the extrapolated closest point (X-CPA) is estimated at 18.6N, 63.0W or about 39.4 miles (63.4 km) from your location, where it can be in about 5 days, 23 hours and 20 minutes from now (Thursday, September 7 at 7:24AM AST, be aware that this location is not part of the official forecast and is prone to large errors).

40 miles away from a monster hurricane is WAY too close.

People are already deep into preparation. No dry dock. Friends are on stand by list.
Bread, milk and booze are being bought. Generator filled. Branches being cut off.
This is real people. Even in Miami it's taken note.
Good Luck to us.
irina

Agreed, this one could be really bad. And best wishes to those in Texas and Louisiana, reeling from Harvey.

This model has it veering north....we all hope it is correct.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=atlatrop_slp

It appears, according to the 11 AM Discussion on the NHC website, that there are two distinct groups of thought on Irma, one taking it more north and one staying south.

"There is a noticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and
corrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and
HMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep
cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from
the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on
the southern side of the guidance. Thus, the forecast will stay
similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster
mentioned above. "

This is not looking good at all... We have a house on Island, and my husband is already thinking of damage.. Just put a new roof on last winter, that could be the first to go with high winds... Rain is not so bad, but winds are very damaging... Hope we get a miracle with this monster... Stressed is not the word, but hope everyone stays safe.....

Here is one more source from Boat US.

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/trackin...17#.WamDIsh96Uk

i hope irma shifts north really quick and fizzles out. thinking of all of you in the pathway. my husband and i are set to visit st. maarten next thrusday....

tiss the season... High risk. All it takes is one major hurricane to be remembered for years.. Been going to St.M for many years, and every year we fear the big one... Louis was a huge hurricane that caused not just damage but shutting down the Island. If this monster passes over? only hope is how fast it travel. If it sits on the Islands!!!!! big destruction... I know way ahead of the game, but very realistic. This one is scary..

Hi Sasasal,

It's Luis not Louis that caused all that damage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Luis
Good Luck
irina

To me that model looks like it is a hit on SXM and adjacent islands. The eye doesn't have to pass over the island to cause severs damage

sorry for the mistake in names. and thanks for letting me know. of cource it was Louis. Not sure you did not understand my reply. I was part of this hurricane, as we suffered the after effects. sorry you need to spend time on spelling or mistakes. makes no difference. and I do feel bad. thanks Irma. not everyone is free of faults. like you,.

Cat Fight

<img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" />

OK, guys let's just dial this down.. This is a very serious topic, and we need to focus on the issue.

What?

Anyway, we are watching very carefully here. And hearing from my friends on island, it's very stressful the way IRMA keeps wavering north and south.
We got lucky when we lived there but some big ones hit the US. Only got hit by Otto when we were there visiting B and it was quite impactful. No comparison to IRMA.
Good luck
irina

this is when I am so glad we sold our boat, not being ripped off by Bobbies.

From Mike's Weather page, my go-to site for severe weather updates: "Overnight models continue to build more consistency on future path of Irma. She could skirt just north of the Lesser Antilles... with PR/DR/Haiti close... then the Bahamas/US? The Gulf is looking less of a threat each hour. The SE and east coast of U.S. not as much unfortunately. High pressure showing up more in recent runs blocking Irma and keeping her more NW. Lots to watch. She is expected to fluctuate in intensity but still be a major most the way."

Don't be so fast to count it out. Things change in an hour and it's still a ways away.

I agree not to count it out yet. The models disagree by several hundred miles north and south. The high pressure has not even got there yet nor has the low pressure, both are what can change the path completely. The NHC said that it is basically use the middle of both models for its forecast at this time.

This post is Not an official forecast but only a computer model.

According to the track so far!!! It is headed right on top of the leeward Islands... We can hope it veers off, but even without the eye, This will be horrific.. We can hope it picks up speed, or else it will sit on the Islands. Folks are already being told to take precautions.. Do not like this one bit... Hope I am wrong in my fear...

IMHO this will be a close call for SXM. I live on Long Island and have experienced Sandy. My biggest fear is a double Whammy ! First hitting SXM and Long Island New York with the same system.
This is a computer model that is driving me crazy!

September 10,2017 Hurricane IRMA <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Yikes.gif" alt="" />

I don't know where that model came from, but our local forecasters here in North Carolina are telling us that there are a lot of bogus forecasts out there. There's no way that anyone can predict what this hurricane will be doing over a week from now; and any predictions that involve the US are extremely premature, and probably fake.

yea. lets hope its path now means very little. St.M. is getting all sorts of warning and told to pay close attention. Have friends that live on Island, and they say they have been alerted to start making preperations. that from those living there, not us living here... lets hope all is a waste... But precautions must be made non the less. ... If this track stays on cource? not good. period.

I'm not questioning the path that shows it heading towards St. Martin, but the "model" posted above that shows the storm over Long Island on September 10 is a bit ridiculous.

Talk about anything that could happen in 2011 I was in SXM and hurricane Irene pass just to the south of us. Then we left Saint Maarten got back to Long Island and hurricane Irene hit the New York area got to enjoy her twice

Storm Carib closest point map says 49 miles on Wednesday afternoon. Stay safe SXM

She's moving SW now toward the islands. If that were to continue she'd slam into Barbuda head on. If she makes a slight turn... ugh. Hopefully she will turn right and head north of the island. No matter what this looks to be very, very close. If you're on the island, stock up and be ready - & Godspeed.

Yes, scary close!! I hope she goes north sooner...

No way is this good!!! This monster even close will cause damage... I am sure people on Island are watching this very close. Spoke to a rental agency friend of mine on Island, and she just kept saying!!! This is terrible... Stay safe people...

Yup...not nice. 110mph..moving W/SW. Looks like late Tuesday into Wednesday morning

This is not the time for conjecture from arm chair meteorologists. At some point a single model or even a single model run is going to display a disaster scenario at sometime for someone. The forecast put out the the NHC are based on many model runs and model types, model performance history and the lasted data. A team of Hurricane meteorologists and scientists deliberate and come to consensus on the forecast because lives and economies are at stake based on their forecasts. There is reason why their forecast only goes out 5-days and they draw an uncertainty cone. They are not media weather announcers or meteorologist looking to say I got the location of the landfall right before anybody else.

Just read the technical forecast discussion that goes into the forecast http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/030849.shtml?

Yes, it looks ominous for St Martin and preparation is advised. But still a lot of uncertainty as to the radius of effect as its such a compact storm. The East Coast, the odds the US is in play verses going out to sea are increasing. Its the peak of Hurricane season, we should be prepared, plan and have a Plan B but not panic.

I don't blame anyone who owns property on the island, or anyone who cares deeply about the island or it's people, for being pretty freaked right now. People can only prepare as best as they can and hope and pray this thing passes them by.

It's pretty bad on island. Nerves are frayed. Preparations are moving along quite briskly.
Trees are being trimmed, boats in dry dock etc.
Fingers crossed.
<img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Sad.gif" alt="" />

Yes keep fingers crossed. The next 72 hours should determine a lot of things, based on the 11am NHC information.

From the NHC:


and

I can tell you the boating community is seriously gearing up. The SXM Facebook boating page is all lit up.

Don't forget what happened with Gonzalo. It's any one's guess about when and how strong it will be. 1 Hour before passing it can change direction and either pass us or make a direct hit. Always be prepared, not like so may did not for Gonzolo.

Island 92 radio does a tropical weather update at 9am, 11am and 5pm daily which can be listened to live. Probably not much new meteorological info here but you do get an idea of the mood on the island, obviously through the opinion of the announcer.

http://island92.com/

Makes perfect sense, and we will not even talk about that little thing that has come off africa. <img src="http://65.246.19.145/forums/images/graemlins/Yikes.gif" alt="" />

I praying everyone will be safe. I'm also wondering about the market ladies and how they're gearing up or battening down.

Ok. just saw updated weather on Irma. As of this evening they will post warnings for the leeward Islands. It is on a track that could hit directly or very close. Either way??? We need a huge change here. My Love of Island, its people, my longtime friends, my home away from home, we are with you . Please stay safe... stuff means nothing, lives mean everything... People on St.M. we are hugging you tight. I hope you can feel it....

This is NOT an official forecast but just a computer model run.

Be careful, everyone!!

Thanks and it's Luis anniversary. But our first home was totally solid then and we spent a whole month off Island. Our second is also totally solid. Prayers for the flooding.

Keeping my fingers crossed for you and for all the people of the island. With each local update here, it looks worse and worse for the island. Lots of prayers and good wishes coming your way. This is one time I truly hope and pray our forecasters have gotten it wrong again.

And to all the vacationers who have never seen the devastation a major storm can do across the island, please be smart and be safe and don't allow yourselves to let your guard down with regard to this storm. Hunker down in your resort and be safe.

And lastly, if you can get a flight out ahead of it, even if it's coming only remotely near the island, DO SO ASAP and don't let yourself get stuck there. I wish I could remember how many days the airport was closed during Luis but it was a wait for those there trying to get out and for those islanders away trying to get back home again. If the storm should come across the island you are pretty much on your own. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" />

Best wishes to you and everyone on island..

Being through a hurricane on island. Get off at all costs BEFORE it arrives. Don't make excuses of not leaving. Because after the hurricane/ storm your vacation is finished anyhow. If that is not possible, fill the car with gas, buy non perishable food to eat,buy a lot of bottled water, buy a multi band radio to listen to weather updates so you have an idea of whats going on, buy a couple of flashlights AND buy a lot of batteries to power them.

Even after the hurricane goes through you will not get on the next flight out. The airlines will put the persons from the canceled flights on empty seats available on the post flights leaving the island. And since most flights are full now days this could take a while to get off the island.

I was lucky enough to have a closet with concrete walls in the middle of the villa I was at to ride through the hurricane.

video here

Wendell

Wendell--Thanks. I don't remember seeing that video before. Where were you staying?

At Monte Vista

This is byond scary. My prayers also going to all.

What is interesting is, if you want to see a dynamic minute to minute of where the storm is. Watch the marinetraffic.com site and see where the ships aren't. There is a void of ships where the hurricane is.

Wendell

Island 92 just stated that on Wednesday morning, "in the wee hours until the afternoon" the storm will be heading west, just to the north of SXM, at approx 78 miles away. The reason that number - 78 - is important, is that the hurricane force winds extend approximately 35 miles out from the center, so 78 miles is too far away, by a little more than double, for the storm to actually [b][b][/b][/b]impact with hurricane force wind. Granted, storms wobble, and everybody still needs to be PREPARED, but this is certainly a very reasonable glimmer of hope that the island may only experience tropical force wind. This being said, there is still a HURRICANE WATCH in effect, so, to repeat: be prepared and stay safe.

My unsolicited advice, to agree with but add to Wendell's post:

If power goes out, credit cards may not work, if you don't have cash, go to an ATM and get some now.

If power goes off for an extended period of time, then there will be no water pressure, which means no water! As Wendell said, buy bottled water now; but also, if you have a bathtub where you are staying, fill it with tap water now... you can use that water to put a bucket full in the toilet so it flushes! Without water, toilets do not flush, that can be a problem after a major storm.

Wendell mentions non perishable food. OK maybe a loaf of bread that will get mold after a few days.....
Don't forget peanut butter and crackers... you would be amazed how long you can live off of that. Maybe add some bananas and nuts....
you have to think no electricity which means no refrigeration. If you have a gas or charcoal grill, freeze some hamburgers or hot dogs to use later.

And as Wendell mentioned: flashlights and batteries.

That's my 2 cents worth, for all on island, be safe.

The tent camper in me says great suggestions, Raspy, and particularly regarding the cash vs CC's vs ATMs. During hurricane Hugo many of the banks in SC were closed for weeks and cash was truly king to those who had the foresight to stock up on it. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" />

Ironically with Bertha. The phone system worked. The owner of the villa tried to get on island. Made it to Florida but couldn't get any farther. So I kept him apprised of the state of the villa. As I had much time on my hands I did alot of cleaning up ( got me a free week stay next trip) Also in his utility room he had a fridge full of Heineken. I save them from getting hot. Breakfast, lunch, dinner of champions ( so they say).

Also even if the airport has generators that doesn't mean that the reservations systems will be working.

Wendell

I'm no meterologist but if you draw a straight line between Cape Verde off Africa to SXM, the hurricane is right on that straight line and has been since yesterday.

Prepare for high winds and heavy seas and be safe everyone.

This morning Storm Carib closest point tool has Irma 23 miles. That is way too close for comfort. My guess is if you haven't gotten out by now, you're probably not going to be able to.

There's a lot of good advice given above. Pay attention to it and please stay safe. Prayers are with you all, both Islanders and Vacationers.

At least if Irma passes on the NE side of the island, the forward motion of the storm will subtract from the counterclockwise wind rotation (for northern hemisphere). Might not help much but definitely do not want a pass on the SW side which would increase effective wind speed.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html

Too late to get out now, much easier decision when you're not here on vacation. Super U was crazy busy on Saturday with people buying provisions. Besides our own well being,
realized what all our island friends have to lose.
Have about five days of food and hope that the sea generator functions. Got a good book to read and that paperwork that never seems to get done.
Grand Case was deserted late night. Concerned for all the restaurant owners, It would be devastating to have damage to your restaurant especially the Orient beach bars that have been through all the hoopla just to get back up and running.

Prayers to all on the island.

Take care, stay safe! Please let us know how you are, if you can.

Looks to me to be more south of the island than north. All the French islands to the south of SXM look in the path including Guadeloupe, Martinique, Etc.

Hope it heads away from all but I'd be ultra prepared.

The sad part about destruction of property is that almost impossible to find help in repairs. Everyone is super busy, and material will be scarce.. We know that from past hurricanes. Very slow process after a major hurricane... And the cleanup is very time consuming... I personally am very worried about this one. We are not close to ocean, but I can recall the resorts on or near water had extensive damage... This storm would need to get far away not to cause such damage... And god forbid its so slow that it pounds the Island for days... Ok. I am pessimistic. Did I spell that right?

No, check out Storm Carib for the path and closest point of approach.

So far, it is a relatively small hurricane, size wise, so that is good. But it needs to veer much further north to save the island from a fairly devastating hit.

I agree. For us!!! who have a home there, its worry, stress and have to wait... Getting way to old for this stuff, Anyone want to buy a house on Island????

Amateur plotter here.

I'll defer to all the experts and we shall see.

Needs to make that turn north

I totally understand. Do you have a caretaker who will keep you apprised of it's condition? At this point, I also worry whether Irma will make a visit to us here in Florida next weekend.

I just want to puke right now!! Made two mortgage payments on our condo!! So far the caretakers and property manager of the complex have been great and keeping offsite owners informed via email. This is going to be a long week!

This is NOT an official forecast! Stay Safe and prepare NOW!

The only thing we have is an agency who takes care of two apts we rent on our property. But if there is damage, husband will have to fly in and take care of it... I have to worry about our tenents and there damage. Again, getting work done will be very slow. We have lived through a few hurricanes, and know first hand what comes with them... The cleanup alone without major stuff is a killer... And yes of cource your worried about Fl... No one needs this for sure... You would think with all the technology they could somehow break up a large system... that cause such destruction... Look at poor texas... Mother nature is very tricky...

I would think a condo would get less destruction than a private house, could be wrong... We have a new roof, solor panels that could be destroyed. we do have hurricane shutters on most windows, but the ones that do not? yukkkkk

Well they probably could drop a thermo nuclear bomb into the eye of the hurricane, that would probably break it up,
but then the radioactive fallout would be worse than the hurricane!

Will they stop flights from coming in soon??

I believe they would stop the flights when the storm hits. they are saying leeward Islands Tuesday eve. or early wednsday... When it gets real close, They may cancel flights as early as tomorrow.. If a flight comes in, they want to know they can get out. So as a precaution they would just cancel... I could be off track, but my guess is they will watch the storm carefully... Yes they will cancel if this storm hits land...

Oh boy, new ownership! What floor is the condo on Kim? I would worry about storm surge, unless you are up on the cliff.
Does the unit have hurricane shutters? The caretakers have most certainly pulled everything in off the balconies.

Since this one is already long, will close this one here and start a new thread with the hurricane WARNING. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/cry.gif" alt="" />