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Hurricane Irma #139141 08/30/2017 07:38 AM 08/30/2017 07:38 AM
Joined: Oct 2014 Posts: 2,141 Ontario, Canada warren460 OP Traveler
warren460 OP Traveler Joined: Oct 2014 Posts: 2,141 Ontario, Canada	http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 Hoping the track keeps it north of the islands. Last edited by Carol_Hill; 08/31/2017 03:00 PM. Warren S/V Scuba Doo Lagoon 50 (winner of best crewed yacht under 55 feet at the St. Thomas crewed yacht boat show). https://www.cyabrochure.com/ebn/2307/pdyrX/6642/4///

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Re: New storm to watch [Re: warren460] #139142 08/30/2017 09:57 AM 08/30/2017 09:57 AM
Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049 S StormJib Traveler
StormJib Traveler S Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049	A quick look at the 7-10 day models shows in +/- 240 hours the extreme weather forecasters will be very busy with Carribean, West Coast, East Coast and Gulf of Mexico storms. Harvey is very disruptive for now. Once Harvey and the current East Coast storm is gone? The pictures should get a little clearer.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: warren460] #139143 08/30/2017 02:34 PM 08/30/2017 02:34 PM
Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 80,012 Central Florida! Carol_Hill Traveler
Carol_Hill Traveler Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 80,012 Central Florida!	Doesn't look good! Carol Hill

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139144 08/30/2017 02:39 PM 08/30/2017 02:39 PM
Joined: Aug 2017 Posts: 45 Charleston, SC C CHS_JDE Traveler
CHS_JDE Traveler C Joined: Aug 2017 Posts: 45 Charleston, SC	She'll be arriving about the same time we are scheduled to. Never wished for a tail wind so much!

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: CHS_JDE] #139145 08/30/2017 02:53 PM 08/30/2017 02:53 PM
Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049 S StormJib Traveler
StormJib Traveler S Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049	Here is the latest 9 day model. The path shifted way south since this AM. For those that do not believe in long range computer forecasting the BVI should be fine. If this is correct the weather will not be good near the water... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f216.php

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139146 08/31/2017 06:12 AM 08/31/2017 06:12 AM
Joined: Aug 2017 Posts: 45 Charleston, SC C CHS_JDE Traveler
CHS_JDE Traveler C Joined: Aug 2017 Posts: 45 Charleston, SC	Looks like she picked up a little speed. Still gonna plow right through the islands.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: CHS_JDE] #139147 08/31/2017 08:07 AM 08/31/2017 08:07 AM
Joined: Oct 2014 Posts: 2,141 Ontario, Canada warren460 OP Traveler
warren460 OP Traveler Joined: Oct 2014 Posts: 2,141 Ontario, Canada	From spaghetti models web site. https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11 Hopefully it turns hard north. But it's so far away, so the likelihood of an accurate landfall is low. Last edited by warren460; 08/31/2017 08:09 AM. Warren S/V Scuba Doo Lagoon 50 (winner of best crewed yacht under 55 feet at the St. Thomas crewed yacht boat show). https://www.cyabrochure.com/ebn/2307/pdyrX/6642/4///

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: warren460] #139148 08/31/2017 10:10 AM 08/31/2017 10:10 AM
Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 80,012 Central Florida! Carol_Hill Traveler
Carol_Hill Traveler Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 80,012 Central Florida!	OK, not sure what the time on that map is, but the National Hurricane Center current guidance brings Irma far to the SOUTH of the BVI.. Carol Hill

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139149 08/31/2017 10:41 AM 08/31/2017 10:41 AM
Joined: May 2013 Posts: 93 Germany, Bergkamen B bigbone Traveler
bigbone Traveler B Joined: May 2013 Posts: 93 Germany, Bergkamen	Other weather models predict a turn to North on Monday/Tuesday next week

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: bigbone] #139150 08/31/2017 11:07 AM 08/31/2017 11:07 AM
Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 80,012 Central Florida! Carol_Hill Traveler
Carol_Hill Traveler Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 80,012 Central Florida!	The 11 AM NHC forecast still shows it going south of the BVI, but forecasting past a couple of days can be really unpredictable. Predicted to be a Cat 4, which will be catastrophic, regardless of where it goes. Carol Hill

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139151 08/31/2017 11:07 AM 08/31/2017 11:07 AM
Joined: Jun 2011 Posts: 3,462 VIRGINIA B BEERMAN Traveler
BEERMAN Traveler B Joined: Jun 2011 Posts: 3,462 VIRGINIA	Current grib files I look at show a push from the south middle of the week, moving the storm north of the islands. Trying to predict this far out is a crap shoot. If I was chartering next week, I would certainly plan for some unsettled conditions late next week.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: BEERMAN] #139152 08/31/2017 11:33 AM 08/31/2017 11:33 AM
Joined: Feb 2006 Posts: 918 F Fletch Traveler
Fletch Traveler F Joined: Feb 2006 Posts: 918	The latest 5-day cone shows storm moving in a somewhat southwesterly direction however 6 to 8 day "spaghetti computer models" show it making a sharp turn toward that will (hopefully) take it north of the BVI's, USVI's and PR. Still requires a close watch as lots can change between now and then.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Fletch] #139153 08/31/2017 12:19 PM 08/31/2017 12:19 PM
Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049 S StormJib Traveler
StormJib Traveler S Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049	Here is the most reliable long term model 168 hours from now or +/- five days from now: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f168.php I suspect all the boats will be kept at the dock or moved to Hurricane Hole next week unless there is some change. The turn taking the storm to Carolinas or Bermuda is not materializing. In any case next Wednesday and Thursday will be the days of greatest risk with preparations complete before Tuesday across the region.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139154 08/31/2017 01:40 PM 08/31/2017 01:40 PM
Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049 S StormJib Traveler
StormJib Traveler S Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049	For you gamblers out there here is a risk or odds chart....

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139155 08/31/2017 01:57 PM 08/31/2017 01:57 PM
Joined: Mar 2017 Posts: 24 S Stevepoz Traveler
Stevepoz Traveler S Joined: Mar 2017 Posts: 24	Good luck to everyone down there!

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Carol_Hill] #139156 08/31/2017 02:19 PM 08/31/2017 02:19 PM
Joined: Oct 2007 Posts: 348 Pittsburgh, PA S Schwendy Traveler
Schwendy Traveler S Joined: Oct 2007 Posts: 348 Pittsburgh, PA	Wow. I was on charter this same week last year. I think Sept. 10th is the actual peak day of the season. This doesn't look good. Hope everyone and everything is safe. Feel really bad for all of you that have charters booked. I know how much the feeling of your long anticipated vacation being threatened or ruined really sucks.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Schwendy] #139157 08/31/2017 04:10 PM 08/31/2017 04:10 PM
Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049 S StormJib Traveler
StormJib Traveler S Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049	Quote Schwendy said: Wow. I was on charter this same week last year. I think Sept. 10th is the actual peak day of the season. This doesn't look good. Hope everyone and everything is safe. Feel really bad for all of you that have charters booked. I know how much the feeling of your long anticipated vacation being threatened or ruined really sucks. Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Now we do it ourselves saying something like... I have done this before and the weather was perfect. Most of us do not know what we do not know. In our case our only bad weather was once in June a wave came through on the last day of a bachelor party trip. The result the airport closed and everyone was delayed a day or more getting back to work or whatever. Imagine those phone calls. "Wifey, A tropical wave popped out of nowhere and I am stuck here until at least tomorrow." We were on a then brand new Virgin Traders 56. They pulled the boat out of the water for the season as we were getting off in JUNE! If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139158 08/31/2017 04:15 PM 08/31/2017 04:15 PM
Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 80,012 Central Florida! Carol_Hill Traveler
Carol_Hill Traveler Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 80,012 Central Florida!	Quote StormJib said:Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Bull. You're talking about effectively half of the year. Stuff happens, for sure, but avoiding the whole Caribbean from June through November is silly. Carol Hill

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139159 08/31/2017 06:09 PM 08/31/2017 06:09 PM
Joined: Apr 2014 Posts: 304 Rockford, Michigan aarpskier Traveler
aarpskier Traveler Joined: Apr 2014 Posts: 304 Rockford, Michigan	Quote StormJib said: [quote]Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Bull squared. Over the last 12 years, we have chartered over 6 times in June and October, from the BVI down to Grenada. Perfect weather on every trip. No hurricanes, no tropical storms, fewer people and lower rates. The only bad trip? In December 2003 out of Canouan. Our first (and last) experience with "Christmas Winds." After 4 hours trying to motor north to Bequia and Mustique in 6-8 foot seas and unable to clear the north end of Canouan, we gave up and just spent the week in and around the Tobago Cays. Overcast and really windy every day. We'll take June and October, thank you! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" />

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: warren460] #139160 08/31/2017 06:49 PM 08/31/2017 06:49 PM
Joined: Aug 2006 Posts: 2,028 Leverick Bay NickR Traveler
NickR Traveler Joined: Aug 2006 Posts: 2,028 Leverick Bay	Is the purfesser around to give us some hope? Glenn? Nick Willis "Mine Host" Leverick Bay Resort & Marina

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: NickR] #139161 08/31/2017 07:10 PM 08/31/2017 07:10 PM
Joined: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,311 USVI LocalSailor Traveler
LocalSailor Traveler Joined: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,311 USVI	I sure don't like this collection of computer models. http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL11_2017083112_ECENS_large.png?91852102 "unsettled conditions late next week" I would say so for sure.

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: LocalSailor] #139162 08/31/2017 08:21 PM 08/31/2017 08:21 PM
Joined: Oct 2014 Posts: 2,141 Ontario, Canada warren460 OP Traveler
warren460 OP Traveler Joined: Oct 2014 Posts: 2,141 Ontario, Canada	Maybe tomorrow will have brighter forecasts. Too bad hope is not a valid plan. Warren S/V Scuba Doo Lagoon 50 (winner of best crewed yacht under 55 feet at the St. Thomas crewed yacht boat show). https://www.cyabrochure.com/ebn/2307/pdyrX/6642/4///

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139163 09/01/2017 11:17 AM 09/01/2017 11:17 AM
Joined: Oct 2007 Posts: 348 Pittsburgh, PA S Schwendy Traveler
Schwendy Traveler S Joined: Oct 2007 Posts: 348 Pittsburgh, PA	Quote StormJib said: Quote Schwendy said: Wow. I was on charter this same week last year. I think Sept. 10th is the actual peak day of the season. This doesn't look good. Hope everyone and everything is safe. Feel really bad for all of you that have charters booked. I know how much the feeling of your long anticipated vacation being threatened or ruined really sucks. Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Now we do it ourselves saying something like... I have done this before and the weather was perfect. Most of us do not know what we do not know. In our case our only bad weather was once in June a wave came through on the last day of a bachelor party trip. The result the airport closed and everyone was delayed a day or more getting back to work or whatever. Imagine those phone calls. "Wifey, A tropical wave popped out of nowhere and I am stuck here until at least tomorrow." We were on a then brand new Virgin Traders 56. They pulled the boat out of the water for the season as we were getting off in JUNE! If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine. Or maybe that week and time of year was all I could afford! Rolled the dice and took my chances and it all worked out. BVI's were deserted! Nice having lower rates and NO crowds but it was almost a little too empty. Plus we missed out on a few places that were closed but still plenty to do. Normally I don't buy travel insurance but that time we did. I think I always would for an expensive charter vacation.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Schwendy] #139164 09/01/2017 12:26 PM 09/01/2017 12:26 PM
Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049 S StormJib Traveler
StormJib Traveler S Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049	Read this line: "If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine"

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139165 09/01/2017 12:30 PM 09/01/2017 12:30 PM
Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049 S StormJib Traveler
StormJib Traveler S Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049	If the most reliable long term model holds the storm with go by just to the North on Thursday. Then cross the bahamas and head somewhere up the East Coast. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f144.php

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139166 09/01/2017 01:36 PM 09/01/2017 01:36 PM
Joined: Feb 2002 Posts: 3,581 Woodstock, GA RickinAtlanta Traveler
RickinAtlanta Traveler Joined: Feb 2002 Posts: 3,581 Woodstock, GA	Quote StormJib said: Read this line: "If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine" Hey Jib read this line. Quote Or maybe that week and time of year was all I could afford!

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: RickinAtlanta] #139167 09/01/2017 02:53 PM 09/01/2017 02:53 PM
Joined: Mar 2001 Posts: 1,294 Colorado and Sailing the World Maria_and_Steve Traveler
Maria_and_Steve Traveler Joined: Mar 2001 Posts: 1,294 Colorado and Sailing the World	No need to even look at the forecasts until Sunday (or Monday) when the forecasts stabilize. There is currently too much going to for the predictions to be reliable, even for the spaghetti models.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Maria_and_Steve] #139168 09/01/2017 04:07 PM 09/01/2017 04:07 PM
Joined: Jun 2004 Posts: 6,100 Maryland Twanger Traveler
Twanger Traveler Joined: Jun 2004 Posts: 6,100 Maryland	Historically, the odds of a hurricane eye coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 2% per week in September. In the shoulder months of August and October it's 1%. In July and November it's 0.5%. Outside that, it's essentially 0%.

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: warren460] #139169 09/01/2017 04:08 PM 09/01/2017 04:08 PM
Joined: Oct 2000 Posts: 4,209 Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound... tpcook Traveler
tpcook Traveler Joined: Oct 2000 Posts: 4,209 Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound...	My hurricane tracking software shows the storm going north of the virgins. Yea! tpcook

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Twanger] #139170 09/01/2017 04:42 PM 09/01/2017 04:42 PM
Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,039 Charlotte, NC N NCSailor Traveler
NCSailor Traveler N Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,039 Charlotte, NC	Quote Twanger said: Historically, the odds of a hurricane eye coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 2% per week in September. In the shoulder months of August and October it's 1%. In July and November it's 0.5%. Outside that, it's essentially 0%. In three October trips I encountered one tropical wave and one hurricane. I don't go in October any longer. Yes, it's cheaper. My vacation time is limited. I can afford not to gamble with hurricane season.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Twanger] #139171 09/01/2017 04:45 PM 09/01/2017 04:45 PM
Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049 S StormJib Traveler
StormJib Traveler S Joined: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,049	Quote Twanger said: Historically, the odds of a hurricane eye coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 2% per week in September. In the shoulder months of August and October it's 1%. In July and November it's 0.5%. Outside that, it's essentially 0%. Those numbers are misleading and ignore the tropical waves while not as catatrophic as a full direct hurricane. A wave can be very disruptive to many vacation plans including in our case much of the crew returning on time to work and life back home. There is a reason many of the oldest and wisest close up for the season. Some do not want to take responsibility for playing those bigger picture odds.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: NCSailor] #139172 09/01/2017 06:06 PM 09/01/2017 06:06 PM
Joined: Jun 2004 Posts: 6,100 Maryland Twanger Traveler
Twanger Traveler Joined: Jun 2004 Posts: 6,100 Maryland	Now tracking a bit North. If the trend continues, hopefully our beloved Virgin Islands will be spared.

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Twanger] #139173 09/01/2017 06:21 PM 09/01/2017 06:21 PM
Joined: Jan 2013 Posts: 989 annap, MD/BVI-Nanny Cay hallucination Traveler
hallucination Traveler Joined: Jan 2013 Posts: 989 annap, MD/BVI-Nanny Cay	Much better...even though my LUCI is in tie downs, all cloths off, and insurance up to date. Agreed, not worth worrying about till Monday. Hopefully I can get back to thinking about replacing the active speaker for the VHF....

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: StormJib] #139174 09/01/2017 08:44 PM 09/01/2017 08:44 PM
Joined: May 2014 Posts: 109 Bozeman / Minneapolis snowdog Traveler
snowdog Traveler Joined: May 2014 Posts: 109 Bozeman / Minneapolis	Quote StormJib said: Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. [/quote] 100% Wrong. I used a professional and knowledgeable travel agent to book my September honeymoon at Caneel Bay 30 years ago. Even back then they offered travel insurance for hurricanes. Tropical storm Gilbert roared through during the middle of the week and we still had a great time. s/v Snow Dog - Leopard 46

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: snowdog] #139175 09/01/2017 09:58 PM 09/01/2017 09:58 PM
Joined: Jan 2016 Posts: 876 Georgia & South Carolina D Deepcut Traveler
Deepcut Traveler D Joined: Jan 2016 Posts: 876 Georgia & South Carolina	Snowdog, We honeymooned at Caneel Bay Sept 10-17, 1989...Great weather with a little more wind on the 17th as we went to STT on Ferry. Rain began to roll in as we went to airport. Hugo hit on Sept 18th. I am pretty sure we did not have travel insurance. Wes s/v Sea Tiger (2022 Lagoon 46) www.BareBoatBVI.com

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: Deepcut] #139176 09/02/2017 06:17 AM 09/02/2017 06:17 AM
Joined: Jun 2011 Posts: 3,462 VIRGINIA B BEERMAN Traveler
BEERMAN Traveler B Joined: Jun 2011 Posts: 3,462 VIRGINIA	Good morning, Just checked the 0500hr Irma tracking on NOAA. It's still 4 days out, but local folks know to plan and prepare for the worst and pray for the best. If the course stays as shown it doesn't matter if the eye is a direct hit or not. We were just there for the 15-17 inches of rain that caused a state of emergency....there was no wind with that. To all our friends down there, get to work and stay safe!

Re: Tropical storm Irma [Re: BEERMAN] #139177 09/02/2017 07:54 AM 09/02/2017 07:54 AM
Joined: Apr 2002 Posts: 6,645 GA/NC GeorgeC1 Traveler
GeorgeC1 Traveler Joined: Apr 2002 Posts: 6,645 GA/NC	Reading the written reports on the storm path the conclusion I got was that they have no real idea where this storm is actually going but will be able to tell us more after it goes there! For the moment plan on it moving maybe SW or W or NW and picking up speed.

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: warren460] #139178 09/02/2017 09:31 AM 09/02/2017 09:31 AM
Joined: Jan 2005 Posts: 285 Orlando, FL mmchaplin Traveler
mmchaplin Traveler Joined: Jan 2005 Posts: 285 Orlando, FL	Looks like she may visit us in Virginia. In San Fran until the 11th When is she supposed to impact the East coast? Stay safe in the BVIs! Cheers, Marcia

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: mmchaplin] #139179 09/02/2017 09:35 AM 09/02/2017 09:35 AM
Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 80,012 Central Florida! Carol_Hill Traveler
Carol_Hill Traveler Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 80,012 Central Florida!	The guidance as to where she is going within the next 5 days is all over the place, let alone after that.. Carol Hill

Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: mmchaplin] #139180 09/02/2017 11:16 AM 09/02/2017 11:16 AM
Joined: Jul 2016 Posts: 236 Va Beach Kmon Traveler
Kmon Traveler Joined: Jul 2016 Posts: 236 Va Beach	Quote mmchaplin said: Looks like she may visit us in Virginia. In San Fran until the 11th When is she supposed to impact the East coast? Stay safe in the BVIs! Based on current projections, if it does affect Virginia, it would probably be on the 11th or 12th.

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