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tpcook
Vero Beach, Fl and South Sound Villa Virgin Gorda
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Last edited by Carol_Hill; 08/31/2017 03:00 PM.
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A quick look at the 7-10 day models shows in +/- 240 hours the extreme weather forecasters will be very busy with Carribean, West Coast, East Coast and Gulf of Mexico storms. Harvey is very disruptive for now. Once Harvey and the current East Coast storm is gone? The pictures should get a little clearer.
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Carol Hill
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She'll be arriving about the same time we are scheduled to. Never wished for a tail wind so much!
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Here is the latest 9 day model. The path shifted way south since this AM. For those that do not believe in long range computer forecasting the BVI should be fine. If this is correct the weather will not be good near the water... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f216.php
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Looks like she picked up a little speed. Still gonna plow right through the islands.
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From spaghetti models web site. https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11Hopefully it turns hard north. But it's so far away, so the likelihood of an accurate landfall is low.
Last edited by warren460; 08/31/2017 08:09 AM.
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OK, not sure what the time on that map is, but the National Hurricane Center current guidance brings Irma far to the SOUTH of the BVI..
Carol Hill
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Other weather models predict a turn to North on Monday/Tuesday next week
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The 11 AM NHC forecast still shows it going south of the BVI, but forecasting past a couple of days can be really unpredictable. Predicted to be a Cat 4, which will be catastrophic, regardless of where it goes.
Carol Hill
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Current grib files I look at show a push from the south middle of the week, moving the storm north of the islands. Trying to predict this far out is a crap shoot. If I was chartering next week, I would certainly plan for some unsettled conditions late next week.
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The latest 5-day cone shows storm moving in a somewhat southwesterly direction however 6 to 8 day "spaghetti computer models" show it making a sharp turn toward that will (hopefully) take it north of the BVI's, USVI's and PR. Still requires a close watch as lots can change between now and then.
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Here is the most reliable long term model 168 hours from now or +/- five days from now: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f168.phpI suspect all the boats will be kept at the dock or moved to Hurricane Hole next week unless there is some change. The turn taking the storm to Carolinas or Bermuda is not materializing. In any case next Wednesday and Thursday will be the days of greatest risk with preparations complete before Tuesday across the region.
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For you gamblers out there here is a risk or odds chart.... ![[Linked Image]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIjtStTXoAEEonS.jpg)
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Good luck to everyone down there!
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Wow. I was on charter this same week last year. I think Sept. 10th is the actual peak day of the season. This doesn't look good. Hope everyone and everything is safe. Feel really bad for all of you that have charters booked. I know how much the feeling of your long anticipated vacation being threatened or ruined really sucks.
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Schwendy said:
Wow. I was on charter this same week last year. I think Sept. 10th is the actual peak day of the season. This doesn't look good. Hope everyone and everything is safe. Feel really bad for all of you that have charters booked. I know how much the feeling of your long anticipated vacation being threatened or ruined really sucks. Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Now we do it ourselves saying something like... I have done this before and the weather was perfect. Most of us do not know what we do not know. In our case our only bad weather was once in June a wave came through on the last day of a bachelor party trip. The result the airport closed and everyone was delayed a day or more getting back to work or whatever. Imagine those phone calls. "Wifey, A tropical wave popped out of nowhere and I am stuck here until at least tomorrow." We were on a then brand new Virgin Traders 56. They pulled the boat out of the water for the season as we were getting off in JUNE! If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine.
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StormJib said:Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Bull. You're talking about effectively half of the year. Stuff happens, for sure, but avoiding the whole Caribbean from June through November is silly.
Carol Hill
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StormJib said:
[quote]Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Bull squared. Over the last 12 years, we have chartered over 6 times in June and October, from the BVI down to Grenada. Perfect weather on every trip. No hurricanes, no tropical storms, fewer people and lower rates. The only bad trip? In December 2003 out of Canouan. Our first (and last) experience with "Christmas Winds." After 4 hours trying to motor north to Bequia and Mustique in 6-8 foot seas and unable to clear the north end of Canouan, we gave up and just spent the week in and around the Tobago Cays. Overcast and really windy every day. We'll take June and October, thank you! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" />
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Is the purfesser around to give us some hope? Glenn?
Nick Willis
"Mine Host"
Leverick Bay Resort & Marina
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Maybe tomorrow will have brighter forecasts. Too bad hope is not a valid plan.
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StormJib said:Schwendy said:
Wow. I was on charter this same week last year. I think Sept. 10th is the actual peak day of the season. This doesn't look good. Hope everyone and everything is safe. Feel really bad for all of you that have charters booked. I know how much the feeling of your long anticipated vacation being threatened or ruined really sucks. Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Now we do it ourselves saying something like... I have done this before and the weather was perfect. Most of us do not know what we do not know. In our case our only bad weather was once in June a wave came through on the last day of a bachelor party trip. The result the airport closed and everyone was delayed a day or more getting back to work or whatever. Imagine those phone calls. "Wifey, A tropical wave popped out of nowhere and I am stuck here until at least tomorrow." We were on a then brand new Virgin Traders 56. They pulled the boat out of the water for the season as we were getting off in JUNE! If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine. Or maybe that week and time of year was all I could afford! Rolled the dice and took my chances and it all worked out. BVI's were deserted! Nice having lower rates and NO crowds but it was almost a little too empty. Plus we missed out on a few places that were closed but still plenty to do. Normally I don't buy travel insurance but that time we did. I think I always would for an expensive charter vacation.
![[Linked Image]](https://tickers.TickerFactory.com/ezt/d/4;10765;128/st/20191018/e/BVI/k/27b9/event.png)
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Read this line:
"If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine"
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If the most reliable long term model holds the storm with go by just to the North on Thursday. Then cross the bahamas and head somewhere up the East Coast. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f144.php
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StormJib said:
Read this line:
"If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine" Hey Jib read this line. Or maybe that week and time of year was all I could afford!
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No need to even look at the forecasts until Sunday (or Monday) when the forecasts stabilize. There is currently too much going to for the predictions to be reliable, even for the spaghetti models.
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Historically, the odds of a hurricane eye coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 2% per week in September.
In the shoulder months of August and October it's 1%.
In July and November it's 0.5%.
Outside that, it's essentially 0%.
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My hurricane tracking software shows the storm going north of the virgins. Yea!
tpcook
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Twanger said:
Historically, the odds of a hurricane eye coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 2% per week in September.
In the shoulder months of August and October it's 1%.
In July and November it's 0.5%.
Outside that, it's essentially 0%. In three October trips I encountered one tropical wave and one hurricane. I don't go in October any longer. Yes, it's cheaper. My vacation time is limited. I can afford not to gamble with hurricane season.
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Twanger said:
Historically, the odds of a hurricane eye coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 2% per week in September.
In the shoulder months of August and October it's 1%.
In July and November it's 0.5%.
Outside that, it's essentially 0%. Those numbers are misleading and ignore the tropical waves while not as catatrophic as a full direct hurricane. A wave can be very disruptive to many vacation plans including in our case much of the crew returning on time to work and life back home. There is a reason many of the oldest and wisest close up for the season. Some do not want to take responsibility for playing those bigger picture odds.
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Now tracking a bit North. If the trend continues, hopefully our beloved Virgin Islands will be spared. ![[Linked Image]](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/205603_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png)
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Much better...even though my LUCI is in tie downs, all cloths off, and insurance up to date. Agreed, not worth worrying about till Monday. Hopefully I can get back to thinking about replacing the active speaker for the VHF....
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StormJib said:
Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. [/quote] 100% Wrong. I used a professional and knowledgeable travel agent to book my September honeymoon at Caneel Bay 30 years ago. Even back then they offered travel insurance for hurricanes. Tropical storm Gilbert roared through during the middle of the week and we still had a great time.
s/v Snow Dog - Leopard 46
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Snowdog,
We honeymooned at Caneel Bay Sept 10-17, 1989...Great weather with a little more wind on the 17th as we went to STT on Ferry. Rain began to roll in as we went to airport.
Hugo hit on Sept 18th.
I am pretty sure we did not have travel insurance.
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Good morning, Just checked the 0500hr Irma tracking on NOAA. It's still 4 days out, but local folks know to plan and prepare for the worst and pray for the best. If the course stays as shown it doesn't matter if the eye is a direct hit or not. We were just there for the 15-17 inches of rain that caused a state of emergency....there was no wind with that. To all our friends down there, get to work and stay safe! ![[Linked Image]](http://i1358.photobucket.com/albums/q778/BEERMANRICK/MISC%202/4f169b9a-a82b-4cb3-b23c-0523a21dab92_zpskqytwhqc.png)
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Reading the written reports on the storm path the conclusion I got was that they have no real idea where this storm is actually going but will be able to tell us more after it goes there! For the moment plan on it moving maybe SW or W or NW and picking up speed.
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Looks like she may visit us in Virginia. In San Fran until the 11th When is she supposed to impact the East coast? Stay safe in the BVIs!
Cheers,
Marcia
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The guidance as to where she is going within the next 5 days is all over the place, let alone after that..
Carol Hill
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mmchaplin said:
Looks like she may visit us in Virginia. In San Fran until the 11th When is she supposed to impact the East coast? Stay safe in the BVIs! Based on current projections, if it does affect Virginia, it would probably be on the 11th or 12th.
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