Forums39
Topics36,585
Posts291,788
Members26,351
|
Most Online2,218 Jan 21st, 2020
|
|
49 registered members (Whale Tail, sugarae, vetteguy, Andiamo, Tonythepilot, SANFILIP, candu, George1234, maytrix, samboaty, CarolinaSailor, Rbailey, Scooter, jphart, SteveH, duckfat, CLIFFTOPS, bkigar, road3682, Time Will Tell, wendyk, geomo, lbksxm, Lexington14, jbutah, MamaB, ecm56, KirkB, PML, SXMBND, charlie, MKGrey, dolfer, 48ref, warren460, 14 invisible),
146
guests, and 113
spiders. |
Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
|
|
|
Re: Tropical storm Irma
[Re: bigbone]
#139150
08/31/2017 11:07 AM
08/31/2017 11:07 AM
|
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 80,012 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 80,012
Central Florida!
|
The 11 AM NHC forecast still shows it going south of the BVI, but forecasting past a couple of days can be really unpredictable. Predicted to be a Cat 4, which will be catastrophic, regardless of where it goes.
Carol Hill
|
|
|
Re: Tropical storm Irma
[Re: Fletch]
#139153
08/31/2017 12:19 PM
08/31/2017 12:19 PM
|
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
StormJib
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
|
Here is the most reliable long term model 168 hours from now or +/- five days from now: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f168.phpI suspect all the boats will be kept at the dock or moved to Hurricane Hole next week unless there is some change. The turn taking the storm to Carolinas or Bermuda is not materializing. In any case next Wednesday and Thursday will be the days of greatest risk with preparations complete before Tuesday across the region.
|
|
|
Re: Tropical storm Irma
[Re: Schwendy]
#139157
08/31/2017 04:10 PM
08/31/2017 04:10 PM
|
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
StormJib
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
|
Schwendy said: Wow. I was on charter this same week last year. I think Sept. 10th is the actual peak day of the season. This doesn't look good. Hope everyone and everything is safe. Feel really bad for all of you that have charters booked. I know how much the feeling of your long anticipated vacation being threatened or ruined really sucks. Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Now we do it ourselves saying something like... I have done this before and the weather was perfect. Most of us do not know what we do not know. In our case our only bad weather was once in June a wave came through on the last day of a bachelor party trip. The result the airport closed and everyone was delayed a day or more getting back to work or whatever. Imagine those phone calls. "Wifey, A tropical wave popped out of nowhere and I am stuck here until at least tomorrow." We were on a then brand new Virgin Traders 56. They pulled the boat out of the water for the season as we were getting off in JUNE! If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine.
|
|
|
Re: Tropical storm Irma
[Re: StormJib]
#139158
08/31/2017 04:15 PM
08/31/2017 04:15 PM
|
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 80,012 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 80,012
Central Florida!
|
StormJib said:Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Bull. You're talking about effectively half of the year. Stuff happens, for sure, but avoiding the whole Caribbean from June through November is silly.
Carol Hill
|
|
|
Re: Tropical storm Irma
[Re: StormJib]
#139159
08/31/2017 06:09 PM
08/31/2017 06:09 PM
|
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 304 Rockford, Michigan
aarpskier
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 304
Rockford, Michigan
|
StormJib said: [quote]Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Bull squared. Over the last 12 years, we have chartered over 6 times in June and October, from the BVI down to Grenada. Perfect weather on every trip. No hurricanes, no tropical storms, fewer people and lower rates. The only bad trip? In December 2003 out of Canouan. Our first (and last) experience with "Christmas Winds." After 4 hours trying to motor north to Bequia and Mustique in 6-8 foot seas and unable to clear the north end of Canouan, we gave up and just spent the week in and around the Tobago Cays. Overcast and really windy every day. We'll take June and October, thank you! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" />
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irma
[Re: warren460]
#139160
08/31/2017 06:49 PM
08/31/2017 06:49 PM
|
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,028 Leverick Bay
NickR
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,028
Leverick Bay
|
Is the purfesser around to give us some hope? Glenn?
Nick Willis "Mine Host" Leverick Bay Resort & Marina
|
|
|
Re: Tropical storm Irma
[Re: StormJib]
#139163
09/01/2017 11:17 AM
09/01/2017 11:17 AM
|
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 348 Pittsburgh, PA
Schwendy
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 348
Pittsburgh, PA
|
StormJib said:Schwendy said: Wow. I was on charter this same week last year. I think Sept. 10th is the actual peak day of the season. This doesn't look good. Hope everyone and everything is safe. Feel really bad for all of you that have charters booked. I know how much the feeling of your long anticipated vacation being threatened or ruined really sucks. Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. Now we do it ourselves saying something like... I have done this before and the weather was perfect. Most of us do not know what we do not know. In our case our only bad weather was once in June a wave came through on the last day of a bachelor party trip. The result the airport closed and everyone was delayed a day or more getting back to work or whatever. Imagine those phone calls. "Wifey, A tropical wave popped out of nowhere and I am stuck here until at least tomorrow." We were on a then brand new Virgin Traders 56. They pulled the boat out of the water for the season as we were getting off in JUNE! If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine. Or maybe that week and time of year was all I could afford! Rolled the dice and took my chances and it all worked out. BVI's were deserted! Nice having lower rates and NO crowds but it was almost a little too empty. Plus we missed out on a few places that were closed but still plenty to do. Normally I don't buy travel insurance but that time we did. I think I always would for an expensive charter vacation.
![[Linked Image]](https://tickers.TickerFactory.com/ezt/d/4;10765;128/st/20191018/e/BVI/k/27b9/event.png)
|
|
|
Re: Tropical storm Irma
[Re: StormJib]
#139166
09/01/2017 01:36 PM
09/01/2017 01:36 PM
|
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 3,581 Woodstock, GA
RickinAtlanta
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 3,581
Woodstock, GA
|
StormJib said: Read this line:
"If the trip is a big important deal this time of year? Try Greece, Italy, Croatia, or Maine" Hey Jib read this line. Or maybe that week and time of year was all I could afford!
|
|
|
Re: Tropical storm Irma
[Re: Twanger]
#139170
09/01/2017 04:42 PM
09/01/2017 04:42 PM
|
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,039 Charlotte, NC
NCSailor
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,039
Charlotte, NC
|
Twanger said: Historically, the odds of a hurricane eye coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 2% per week in September. In the shoulder months of August and October it's 1%. In July and November it's 0.5%. Outside that, it's essentially 0%. In three October trips I encountered one tropical wave and one hurricane. I don't go in October any longer. Yes, it's cheaper. My vacation time is limited. I can afford not to gamble with hurricane season.
|
|
|
Re: Tropical storm Irma
[Re: Twanger]
#139171
09/01/2017 04:45 PM
09/01/2017 04:45 PM
|
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
StormJib
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,049
|
Twanger said: Historically, the odds of a hurricane eye coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 2% per week in September. In the shoulder months of August and October it's 1%. In July and November it's 0.5%. Outside that, it's essentially 0%. Those numbers are misleading and ignore the tropical waves while not as catatrophic as a full direct hurricane. A wave can be very disruptive to many vacation plans including in our case much of the crew returning on time to work and life back home. There is a reason many of the oldest and wisest close up for the season. Some do not want to take responsibility for playing those bigger picture odds.
|
|
|
Re: Tropical storm Irma
[Re: StormJib]
#139174
09/01/2017 08:44 PM
09/01/2017 08:44 PM
|
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 109 Bozeman / Minneapolis
snowdog
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 109
Bozeman / Minneapolis
|
StormJib said:
Before the days of self service and the internet there were professional travel agents. Virtually no professional knowledgeable travel agent would book a trip important to a client or family anywhere near the Caribbean between June 1 and close to November. [/quote] 100% Wrong. I used a professional and knowledgeable travel agent to book my September honeymoon at Caneel Bay 30 years ago. Even back then they offered travel insurance for hurricanes. Tropical storm Gilbert roared through during the middle of the week and we still had a great time.
s/v Snow Dog - Leopard 46
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irma
[Re: warren460]
#139178
09/02/2017 09:31 AM
09/02/2017 09:31 AM
|
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 285 Orlando, FL
mmchaplin
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 285
Orlando, FL
|
Looks like she may visit us in Virginia. In San Fran until the 11th When is she supposed to impact the East coast? Stay safe in the BVIs!
Cheers,
Marcia
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irma
[Re: mmchaplin]
#139179
09/02/2017 09:35 AM
09/02/2017 09:35 AM
|
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 80,012 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 80,012
Central Florida!
|
The guidance as to where she is going within the next 5 days is all over the place, let alone after that..
Carol Hill
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Irma
[Re: mmchaplin]
#139180
09/02/2017 11:16 AM
09/02/2017 11:16 AM
|
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 236 Va Beach
Kmon
Traveler
|
Traveler
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 236
Va Beach
|
mmchaplin said: Looks like she may visit us in Virginia. In San Fran until the 11th When is she supposed to impact the East coast? Stay safe in the BVIs! Based on current projections, if it does affect Virginia, it would probably be on the 11th or 12th.
|
|
|
|