This far out the only model with any reasonable track record is this one. Showing any BVI impact between 120 and 144 hours out. Which means Thursday at this point.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f120.php

This far out, the only way to predict the track is like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3HOK6Z8A-M

<img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" /><img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" /><img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" />

Here is the latest 96 hour run:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?...=watl&dpdt=


Close to the BVI Irma will turn more north and excelerate. Then there is the strong chance of a second new system forming just south of Tortola and threatening the VI region on the 10th.

We love to travel in shoulder season--fewer crowds and costs are down but HURRICANES are up. We are leaving Monday for PUnta Cana but we always get travel insurance for this time of year!

Our travel insurance provider GENERALI Travel insurance has been in contact with us re: Irama alerts. their website has alot of good travel info: https://www.generalitravelinsurance.com/travel-resources.html

We love shoulder season travel because fewer crowds and prices are down but HURRICANES.

Our upcoming Punta Cana trip could be impacted by Irma. Our travel insurance GENERALI has alerted us. Their website has updates: https://www.generalitravelinsurance.com/travel-resources.html

Latest track has Irma passing to the North of the BVI as a category 4 storm. Guidance places it far enough N to avoid major damage but there will be significant wind and rain.
G

Note the systems popping up after Irma passses.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?...=watl&dpdt=


Normally that is where an October or November storm would suddenly form?

Hi George, when you posted lastest track, could you also post when the guidance was as at? And the source.

Tracks are changing too fast for comfort especially when distances of 50 miles may be very significant.

I note that the U.K. And NHC tracks keep continue shift south towards bvi as recent as the last minute or so.

Thank you.

Warren

Storm Carib puts the CPA at something like 70 miles away now. Right now, it's a really small cyclone but predicted to get bigger quickly. I always forget, which side of the storm is the worst? Isn't the storm passing to left side the worst?

Carol: The right forward quadrant has the strongest winds. That is why we always like these things to go north of us. The farther north the better, but north.

The right side of the track is worse (for tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere)

OK, thanks. STAY SAFE, everyone!

Pam and I will be going to the villa Sept 16-28 to get some work done. Last hurricane at the villa was 40 hours of hell. Blew well over 100 . Was not fun.

The info I posted was from updates in the last 3 hours. While the storm is predicted to become a CAT 4 it's a tight storm so a miss greater than 50 miles should limit damage. The thing that concerns me is the miss to the N is predicated on IRMA making a turn to the N. we need to start seeing that turn soon!
G

Yes keep fingers crossed. The next 72 hours should determine a lot of things, based on the 11am NHC information.

From the NHC:


and

The GFS and ECMWF are now tightly clustered. This morning's shift comes more into line with the ECMWF which has had the best run to run continuity so far. Anegada further east and north is the most at risk from Irma, Tortola and the USVI may be more threaten by the follow on storm. It is easy to get lost in the spaghetti. The ECMWF or Euro model is the only thing close to credible more than 72 hours out. The ECMWF is updating every three hours.

Heard from Walker and Nancy who are on Anegada and prepping " Hidden Treasure"..after dodging serious damage from Harvey at their Houston home. "Island" Jim Kelly has been prepping CRC and is prepared to baby our cat " Farkle" through this...hoping for that turn north SOON!

Not looking good right now. Need a North turn soon. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/duh.gif" alt="" />

Best wishes to Walker and Nancy and to Island Jim and to all on island!

Hello TP...we will be there also arriving on 9/16. We will be at Mahoe Bay......

Latest NOA track is west, not wsw. Maybe that will help a bit.

call me at the villa 5402442 cell or line 4957425

Storms seem later this year - that doesn't help
Let's all hope "luck-o-Tortola" holds against Irma
Best to all

I really don't like what I see from the various models this morning. Looks like they have shifted the track slightly south as it passes the BVI and are giving it a greater chance of a US landfall. Still plenty of time for a turn North. Keep the fingers crossed!

latest track shows Virgin Gorda 21 miles from the track center. Not Good

Tortola 27 miles, St. Maarten 23. NOT good...

I remember hearing that, boats are shuttled to the hurricane hole.my question is what is the criteria when or who makes the decision?

Not only 23 miles away, but when the winds are forecast to be 140 mph. And Ratman says, if we have damage for the first time in 50 years, it will be all my fault for having the view opened up! Not good at all.

Irma has just been mentioned on BBC weather forecast in UK. This is a virtually unknown happening. Warning being given to anyone intending to visit Caribbean or Florida over coming days. Mentions Barbuda and BVI by name. We are praying for you all.

That would be up to each charter company. Some companies place a portion of their fleet in hurricane storage starting in Aug so they don't have to move a entire fleet. I suspect boats are on the move today and assume all the charters have been recalled to base.
G

I'm scared for Anegada.

Here is an old picture. Moving and securing well more than 1,000 boats is very time consuming. Storm 101 is stripping all fabric above deck and chaffing gear like fire hose on all lines. Years ago the fleets would be shut down and stored well in advance. Virgin Traders and others in Nanny Cay usually pull the boats out of the water.


This





This link will take you to the assigned seating this season:

http://www.bvimarineassociation.com/downloads/1607PARAQUITA%20BASE%20PLAN%2026%20Jun17.pdf

Amazing picture and hurricane plan. Thanks for posting this StormJib! Let's hope this works!!!

Charlie Cary the Moorings founder from New Orleans started working on this plan back in 1973. The issue today is the much larger number of boats, the current business plan to stay open during Hurricane season, and the massive size of today's boats. You almost need a football team to take a main off the big cats. The guys on the docks have their work cut out for them taking the boats apart and then hopefully putting them back together again. Only one boat can travel through the cut at a time. The boats will be first queued to enter the bay, then queued again to come alongside and moor at the discretion of the wardens. MASSIVE undertaking for the boats still at the dock.

Surprising to still see a few boats from the Moorings fleet mooching around on the Soggy Dollar Webcam (just one currently in shot).

...would the whole fleet not have been called back to the mother-ship by now?

Should be recalled today. If any are there this afternoon it's a problem.
G

It seems like you would have to notified some of the bare-boaters
in person at their given location. Even though most companies give you a cell phone/ not everyone has it on. And, not everyone listens to the radio. Even though you caution them, even though they know its coming > there is always a few . . .

There's a boat on the dock at Leverick, too.

The actual forecast is sailable until well past nightfall Tuesday and even until midnight. I suspect they have given the charterers until at least noon today and maybe 3pm. All the Moorings boats cannot be secured simultaneously. The last thing they want is all the tourists trapped on their docks hoteling in the boats while the crew is trying to work. As long as the guests are allowed to stay on the boats at the dock no refund is due. If they are forced off the boats by the Moorings they Moorings takes some ownership for the financial problems. The Moorings Marketing company will delay some of the boats as long as they can. Everyone cannot return at the same time. Some will have no place to go. A sudden jog to the North and some may even try to ride the event out in the lee of Jost. A crew would be safe tying up and getting off the boat by 3 on Tuesday.