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Invest96L 5 day model run #201564 08/01/2019 10:00 AM 08/01/2019 10:00 AM
Joined: Apr 2005 Posts: 7,481 Vermont sxmmartini OP Traveler
sxmmartini OP Traveler Joined: Apr 2005 Posts: 7,481 Vermont	It is a computer model run so things can change one way or another... This model run is worrisome. Attached Files Last edited by sxmmartini; 08/01/2019 10:02 AM.

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Re: Invest96L 5 day model run [Re: sxmmartini] #201565 08/01/2019 10:07 AM 08/01/2019 10:07 AM
Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 82,679 Central Florida! Carol_Hill Traveler
Carol_Hill Traveler Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 82,679 Central Florida!	I have no idea what that's supposed to say, but the latest guidance from the NHC does show a 70% chance of formation in 5 days. One thing I was reading online said it looked like a good bet that SXM would be hit by a tropical storm around Tuesday/Wednesday time frame next week. I sure hope not! Carol Hill

Re: Invest96L 5 day model run [Re: Carol_Hill] #201567 08/01/2019 10:11 AM 08/01/2019 10:11 AM
Joined: Apr 2005 Posts: 7,481 Vermont sxmmartini OP Traveler
sxmmartini OP Traveler Joined: Apr 2005 Posts: 7,481 Vermont	My villa is boarded up already. I am taking no chances this season!

Re: Invest96L 5 day model run [Re: sxmmartini] #201571 08/01/2019 10:44 AM 08/01/2019 10:44 AM
Joined: Oct 2017 Posts: 933 S SammyM Traveler
SammyM Traveler S Joined: Oct 2017 Posts: 933	I'm looking at this right now and yes St. Martin appears to be in the projected path, but the NHC is showing it's status as a potential tropical depression with no strengthening between the 40 West longitude and the 60 West longitude. This means winds no greater than 39 miles per hour so that wouldn't do a whole lot of wind damage. Even if it makes tropical storm status winds greater than 50 mph seem unlikely. Heavy rains and flooding could result, but only time will tell based on how fast this wave is moving. I hope they're correct as far as these wind speeds are concerned. We'll all be watching this carefully over the next 5-6 days.

Re: Invest96L 5 day model run [Re: sxmmartini] #201696 08/04/2019 09:37 AM 08/04/2019 09:37 AM
Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 82,679 Central Florida! Carol_Hill Traveler
Carol_Hill Traveler Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 82,679 Central Florida!	Thank goodness, that one is down to 10% chance of formation. From the NHC "A westward-moving tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the central Lesser Antilles continues to produce an area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive during the next couple of days, and significant development of this system is not anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Stewart" Carol Hill

Re: Invest96L 5 day model run [Re: Carol_Hill] #201698 08/04/2019 10:04 AM 08/04/2019 10:04 AM
Joined: May 2002 Posts: 5,285 Kennys Traveler
Kennys Traveler Joined: May 2002 Posts: 5,285	Thanks for this info Carol.

Re: Invest96L 5 day model run [Re: Kennys] #201707 08/04/2019 11:50 AM 08/04/2019 11:50 AM
Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 82,679 Central Florida! Carol_Hill Traveler
Carol_Hill Traveler Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 82,679 Central Florida!	Good news for once! Carol Hill

Re: Invest96L 5 day model run [Re: Kennys] #201713 08/04/2019 04:33 PM 08/04/2019 04:33 PM
Joined: Apr 2005 Posts: 7,481 Vermont sxmmartini OP Traveler
sxmmartini OP Traveler Joined: Apr 2005 Posts: 7,481 Vermont	It has been set to 0% formation... Woot! Attached Files

Re: Invest96L 5 day model run [Re: sxmmartini] #201714 08/04/2019 05:26 PM 08/04/2019 05:26 PM
Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 82,679 Central Florida! Carol_Hill Traveler
Carol_Hill Traveler Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 82,679 Central Florida!	Good deal! Carol Hill

Re: Invest96L 5 day model run [Re: sxmmartini] #201715 08/04/2019 05:53 PM 08/04/2019 05:53 PM
Joined: May 2002 Posts: 5,285 Kennys Traveler
Kennys Traveler Joined: May 2002 Posts: 5,285	Good news .

Re: Invest96L 5 day model run [Re: sxmmartini] #201716 08/04/2019 06:30 PM 08/04/2019 06:30 PM
Joined: Sep 2000 Posts: 4,679 Newtown, CT kim Traveler
kim Traveler Joined: Sep 2000 Posts: 4,679 Newtown, CT	Yay!! But here I wimped out on going to Anguilla tomorrow for August Monday!!

Re: Invest96L 5 day model run [Re: kim] #201718 08/04/2019 07:09 PM 08/04/2019 07:09 PM
Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 82,679 Central Florida! Carol_Hill Traveler
Carol_Hill Traveler Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 82,679 Central Florida!	Don't blame you, as even if there isn't a tropical storm, the seas could be really rough.. Carol Hill

Re: Invest96L 5 day model run [Re: kim] #201719 08/04/2019 07:40 PM 08/04/2019 07:40 PM
Joined: Apr 2005 Posts: 7,481 Vermont sxmmartini OP Traveler
sxmmartini OP Traveler Joined: Apr 2005 Posts: 7,481 Vermont	Sorry for the false alarm.. The models showing a storm is all it takes for me to freak out. The boy who cried wolf can be a bad thing. People relax after a few false alarms and are caught by surprise when the big one comes. Nothing in life is certain. Enjoying life but always looking over my shoulder, that is me.

Re: Invest96L 5 day model run [Re: sxmmartini] #201721 08/04/2019 08:43 PM 08/04/2019 08:43 PM
Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 82,679 Central Florida! Carol_Hill Traveler
Carol_Hill Traveler Joined: Aug 2000 Posts: 82,679 Central Florida!	Don't blame you on that one, as it was looking bad to begin with. Carol Hill

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