I have no idea what that's supposed to say, but the latest guidance from the NHC does show a 70% chance of formation in 5 days. One thing I was reading online said it looked like a good bet that SXM would be hit by a tropical storm around Tuesday/Wednesday time frame next week. I sure hope not!
I'm looking at this right now and yes St. Martin appears to be in the projected path, but the NHC is showing it's status as a potential tropical depression with no strengthening between the 40 West longitude and the 60 West longitude. This means winds no greater than 39 miles per hour so that wouldn't do a whole lot of wind damage. Even if it makes tropical storm status winds greater than 50 mph seem unlikely. Heavy rains and flooding could result, but only time will tell based on how fast this wave is moving. I hope they're correct as far as these wind speeds are concerned. We'll all be watching this carefully over the next 5-6 days.
Thank goodness, that one is down to 10% chance of formation.
From the NHC "A westward-moving tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the central Lesser Antilles continues to produce an area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive during the next couple of days, and significant development of this system is not anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Sorry for the false alarm.. The models showing a storm is all it takes for me to freak out. The boy who cried wolf can be a bad thing. People relax after a few false alarms and are caught by surprise when the big one comes. Nothing in life is certain. Enjoying life but always looking over my shoulder, that is me.
.
