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Orange cross.. #204635
09/16/2019 12:13 PM
09/16/2019 12:13 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Offline OP
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Manpot  Offline OP
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
..keeping an eye on the orange cross just upgraded from yellow that is south right now but headed West Northwest. Fingers crossed..again.

BVI Sponsors
Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #204640
09/16/2019 01:18 PM
09/16/2019 01:18 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,481
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Posts: 82,481
Central Florida!
So far, it looks like it will be going north of the BVI and St Maarten/St. Martin, but hopefully it won't even develop..


Carol Hill
Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #204660
09/16/2019 04:59 PM
09/16/2019 04:59 PM
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 77
North Carolina
R
RacerRon Offline
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RacerRon  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 77
North Carolina
I have been watchin this one for over a week now!


[Linked Image]
Re: Orange cross.. [Re: RacerRon] #204661
09/16/2019 05:32 PM
09/16/2019 05:32 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Offline OP
Traveler
Manpot  Offline OP
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Already gone to RED!

Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #204664
09/16/2019 07:15 PM
09/16/2019 07:15 PM
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 77
North Carolina
R
RacerRon Offline
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RacerRon  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 77
North Carolina
Yep! And the forecast is too close for my liking! Hope it makes a more aggressive turn to the north!


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Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #204665
09/16/2019 08:05 PM
09/16/2019 08:05 PM
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,003
S
sail445 Offline
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sail445  Offline
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,003
If it stays on the course of the 8pm forecast we’re clear.

Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #204721
09/17/2019 11:11 AM
09/17/2019 11:11 AM
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,003
S
sail445 Offline
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sail445  Offline
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S
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,003

Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #204737
09/17/2019 12:08 PM
09/17/2019 12:08 PM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,347
USVI
LocalSailor Offline
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LocalSailor  Offline
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Posts: 1,347
USVI
The noon reports today have this previous Invest now labeled Tropical Depression 10. Although *most* track predictions have it going North of the VI's in 108 hours it is absolutely worth watching and making any preparations that haven't been made already.
Many here were unpleasantly surprised by Dorian 2 weeks ago as the *projected path* had it passing North of us until the 5am information the day of its noon arrival with a change in intensity and direction.

Good satellite coverage:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=catl&product=ir

Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #204762
09/17/2019 04:55 PM
09/17/2019 04:55 PM
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 41
Massachusetts
D
DuxDweller Offline
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DuxDweller  Offline
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Posts: 41
Massachusetts
Looks like it has a name now - "Ten" and they'r expecting some winds Friday morning. . . hopefully it remains a "tropical storm!"



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Re: Orange cross.. [Re: DuxDweller] #204767
09/17/2019 05:50 PM
09/17/2019 05:50 PM
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,647
Memphis, BVI, CT
R
RatmansWife Offline
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RatmansWife  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,647
Memphis, BVI, CT
Just spoke with our mechanic to make sure he ties down our boats and removes their covers. Our dock repairs were completed the day before Dorian came through, so hope we’re good there, too. Hoping for the best.

Re: Orange cross.. [Re: DuxDweller] #204773
09/17/2019 06:29 PM
09/17/2019 06:29 PM
Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,359
Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
JasonHelmbrecht Offline
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JasonHelmbrecht  Offline
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Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,359
Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
Originally Posted by DuxDweller
Looks like it has a name now - "Ten" and they'r expecting some winds Friday morning. . . hopefully it remains a "tropical storm!"

Ten is not a name so it's not a tropical storm yet. Don't rush us, please!!


JasonHelmbrecht
Coconut Breeze Villas
Cane Garden Bay
reservations@coconutbreezevillas.com
www.coconutbreezevillas.com
Re: Orange cross.. [Re: JasonHelmbrecht] #204774
09/17/2019 06:49 PM
09/17/2019 06:49 PM
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 41
Massachusetts
D
DuxDweller Offline
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DuxDweller  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 41
Massachusetts
Originally Posted by JasonHelmbrecht
Originally Posted by DuxDweller
Looks like it has a name now - "Ten" and they'r expecting some winds Friday morning. . . hopefully it remains a "tropical storm!"

Ten is not a name so it's not a tropical storm yet. Don't rush us, please!!



My bad. "Tropical Depression Ten" - how original.



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Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #204805
09/18/2019 06:36 AM
09/18/2019 06:36 AM
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 2,151
Ontario, Canada
warren460 Offline
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warren460  Offline
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Posts: 2,151
Ontario, Canada
Now it has a name “Jerry”


Warren S/V Scuba Doo
Lagoon 50 (winner of best crewed yacht under 55 feet at the St. Thomas crewed yacht boat show).

https://www.cyabrochure.com/ebn/2307/pdyrX/6642/4///
Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #204859
09/18/2019 01:11 PM
09/18/2019 01:11 PM
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,003
S
sail445 Offline
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sail445  Offline
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,003

Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #204863
09/18/2019 01:47 PM
09/18/2019 01:47 PM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 6,994
GA/NC
GeorgeC1 Online content
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GeorgeC1  Online Content
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Posts: 6,994
GA/NC
Looks like the track shifts more north with each update. Should be fine in the BVI.

Re: Orange cross.. [Re: GeorgeC1] #204864
09/18/2019 01:59 PM
09/18/2019 01:59 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Offline OP
Traveler
Manpot  Offline OP
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Hoping you are right George!

Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #204947
09/19/2019 02:34 PM
09/19/2019 02:34 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Offline OP
Traveler
Manpot  Offline OP
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Hoping to hear some on island updates...thanks.

Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #204948
09/19/2019 02:47 PM
09/19/2019 02:47 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,481
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 82,481
Central Florida!
As of now, no watches or warnings issued for the BVI's. According to Storm Carib, closest point of approach for Tortola as of now is "The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.2N, 63.7W or about 132.7 miles (213.5 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 39 hours and 14 minutes from now (Saturday, September 21 at 6:00AM AST). If that forecast verifies, the BVI should not even get tropical storm force winds.


Carol Hill
Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #204951
09/19/2019 03:09 PM
09/19/2019 03:09 PM
Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,359
Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
JasonHelmbrecht Offline
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JasonHelmbrecht  Offline
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Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,359
Cane Garden Bay, Tortola
Originally Posted by Manpot
Hoping to hear some on island updates...thanks.

We flew out this morning but most things seem business as usual. I saw some shutters going up and a few cancellations but nothing significant so far. On a side note, the north swell was big this morning. Lots of surfers on Cannon Point in CGB and it was building...


JasonHelmbrecht
Coconut Breeze Villas
Cane Garden Bay
reservations@coconutbreezevillas.com
www.coconutbreezevillas.com
Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #204975
09/19/2019 05:09 PM
09/19/2019 05:09 PM
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,647
Memphis, BVI, CT
R
RatmansWife Offline
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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,647
Memphis, BVI, CT
Update right now makes it sound like this won’t be much of a threat for the BVI. The government is canceling everything tomorrow, which sounds like overkill.

Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #205033
09/20/2019 11:17 AM
09/20/2019 11:17 AM
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 348
Pittsburgh, PA
S
Schwendy Offline
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Schwendy  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 348
Pittsburgh, PA
Is the north swell normally an issue already this time of year? I didn't think it became a regular concern until November and later. I know swells, winds, currents, etc. can happen any time but I didn't think I'd have to worry much about the north swell for my trip in mid October.



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Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Schwendy] #205048
09/20/2019 01:44 PM
09/20/2019 01:44 PM
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,169
Rincón PR
casailor53 Offline
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casailor53  Offline
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Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,169
Rincón PR
Originally Posted by Schwendy
Is the north swell normally an issue already this time of year? I didn't think it became a regular concern until November and later. I know swells, winds, currents, etc. can happen any time but I didn't think I'd have to worry much about the north swell for my trip in mid October.

the swell has been from Humberto the last few days. it will switch to swell from Jerry

Re: Orange cross.. [Re: casailor53] #205084
09/20/2019 08:11 PM
09/20/2019 08:11 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Offline OP
Traveler
Manpot  Offline OP
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Big storm passing north of the islands means big energy that pumps waves south..ie big surf.

Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #205103
09/21/2019 10:25 AM
09/21/2019 10:25 AM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,347
USVI
LocalSailor Offline
Traveler
LocalSailor  Offline
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,347
USVI
That was a very lucky miss by a serious storm!!
Stay vigilant - it ain't over til it's over -- a few more weeks!

Re: Orange cross.. [Re: LocalSailor] #205111
09/21/2019 12:40 PM
09/21/2019 12:40 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Manpot Offline OP
Traveler
Manpot  Offline OP
Traveler
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 17,029
Tortola/ Sonoma, California
Watching that new already orange cross that hasnt even crossed the African coast yet!

Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #205139
09/22/2019 06:17 AM
09/22/2019 06:17 AM
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 77
North Carolina
R
RacerRon Offline
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RacerRon  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 77
North Carolina
Closely watching Karen, and the red cross off the coast of Africa!


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Re: Orange cross.. [Re: Manpot] #205143
09/22/2019 08:09 AM
09/22/2019 08:09 AM
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,040
Charlotte, NC
N
NCSailor Offline
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NCSailor  Offline
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,040
Charlotte, NC
Looks like Karen is going to hit the Virgins on Tuesday/Wednesday as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds.


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