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Scientific odds of catching Covid19 on an airplane #232625
08/20/2020 10:54 AM
08/20/2020 10:54 AM
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 408
F
foreversxm Offline OP
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foreversxm  Offline OP
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F
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 408
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/odds-catching-covid-19-flight-wellness-scn/index.html

Interesting finding. Selfishly I hope there’s still enough doubters out there that this doesn’t ruin my cheap airline ticket to SXM.

SXM Sponsors
Re: Scientific odds of catching Covid19 on an airplane [Re: foreversxm] #232629
08/20/2020 11:17 AM
08/20/2020 11:17 AM
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 16,720
Ohio
ruralcarrier Offline
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ruralcarrier  Offline
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Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 16,720
Ohio
Personally, I would agree with the article. Planes have to be cleaner now than ever, throw in the reduced # of passengers and the strict requirements to even board the plane, I would not hesitate to fly. Many studies show the air filtration/circulation system onboard aircraft does an excellent job.
Like you, setting on reasonable airfare for Nov. but not really having a good feeling it is going to happen.


J.D.
Re: Scientific odds of catching Covid19 on an airplane [Re: foreversxm] #232642
08/20/2020 01:42 PM
08/20/2020 01:42 PM
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 630
Burlington, Ontario, Canada
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JohnandBev Offline
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JohnandBev  Offline
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Joined: May 2012
Posts: 630
Burlington, Ontario, Canada
Interesting to look at the numbers
Article says odds of catching based on 2 hour domestic flight is 1/4300 for a full flight and 1/7700 with empty middle rows. Odds rise with longer flights – no odds noted for that scenario

I cannot comment on the science behind those numbers and if the numbers are only for the air flight or include any airport interaction
However based on US population [330 million] and published current daily cases [40,000], odds with just staying put are on average 1/8300.

I think that means a longer haul flight with some middle seats used, would have maybe the same potential as staying home
At least not worse if flying – if the article’s science holds up.

J&B

Re: Scientific odds of catching Covid19 on an airplane [Re: foreversxm] #232649
08/20/2020 05:17 PM
08/20/2020 05:17 PM
Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 45
Bucks County, PA
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Marie Offline
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Marie  Offline
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Posts: 45
Bucks County, PA
I was excited about this until I read the entire article. At the end Dr. Barnett, the statistician from MIT, said he wouldn't fly right now because he is 72 and, because of his age and gender, is at higher risk for covid. So am I. boohoo

Re: Scientific odds of catching Covid19 on an airplane [Re: foreversxm] #233473
08/31/2020 07:06 PM
08/31/2020 07:06 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 297
Maine
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davew Offline
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davew  Offline
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Posts: 297
Maine
This is an example of pseudoscientific BS. The learned professor calculates and cogitates and concludes that the odds are very small....in fact minute. BUT he would not fly now because......WTF. Looks like he does not believe his own analysis. Pure unadulterated BS. It's fine to not believe your analysis but it is not fine to not believe your analysis and then publish it. The man should lose his job.

Re: Scientific odds of catching Covid19 on an airplane [Re: davew] #233485
08/31/2020 08:30 PM
08/31/2020 08:30 PM
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 630
jenniboston Offline
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jenniboston  Offline
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Posts: 630
Wait a minute, because his risk tolerance level is the not the same as yours you’re dismissing his analysis. The very analysis you used to basically dismiss the risk in question?

Re: Scientific odds of catching Covid19 on an airplane [Re: foreversxm] #233486
08/31/2020 08:51 PM
08/31/2020 08:51 PM
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 270
the Long Island
the captain Offline
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the captain  Offline
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Posts: 270
the Long Island
Having just flown 3 times in August, it’s still safer than driving.

Re: Scientific odds of catching Covid19 on an airplane [Re: foreversxm] #233488
08/31/2020 08:56 PM
08/31/2020 08:56 PM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 78,800
Central Florida!
Carol_Hill Offline
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Carol_Hill  Offline
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Posts: 78,800
Central Florida!
This is one of those arguments which has nothing to do with SXM and which no one can convince someone else of their position, so will close this one here.


Carol Hill

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