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AA Flight Reliability? #245309
01/19/2021 07:56 AM
01/19/2021 07:56 AM
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 12,677
Peaceful Eastern North Carolin...
GaKaye Offline OP
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GaKaye  Offline OP
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I'm considering flying from RDU to SXM midweek, as the fares are much lower. We'll be Flying American, and connecting through MIA or CLT. What I don't want to happen is for the flight to be canceled last minute, as I'd lose the money I pay for our first couple of days lodging. Hoping by November that the Covid situation will be under control and testing won't be an issue. I've looked up flights on Flight Aware, and am not really able to find performance history on the flights; I thought I had seen that in the past. I do know that the Tuesday MIA/SXM flight last year was canceled, but that it did fly on Wednesday (friends were on that flight). Does anyone here know how I can find that information? Thanks for any help!

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Re: AA Flight Reliability? [Re: GaKaye] #245320
01/19/2021 09:24 AM
01/19/2021 09:24 AM
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Posts: 1,208
New Hampshire, USA
WayneB Offline
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GaKaye, if you are flying American, "'on time info is listed on each flight in the Details, when making reservations, on the American Airlines site.

Re: AA Flight Reliability? [Re: WayneB] #245325
01/19/2021 10:45 AM
01/19/2021 10:45 AM
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Posts: 12,677
Peaceful Eastern North Carolin...
GaKaye Offline OP
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GaKaye  Offline OP
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That information isn't there for the MIA/SXM flights I'm looking at.

Re: AA Flight Reliability? [Re: GaKaye] #245330
01/19/2021 11:07 AM
01/19/2021 11:07 AM
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 13,456
Auburn, WA
SXMScubaman Offline
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SXMScubaman  Offline
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Try calling AA and ask that question. They might have the answer you're looking for.

Re: AA Flight Reliability? [Re: GaKaye] #245354
01/19/2021 03:32 PM
01/19/2021 03:32 PM
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Posts: 4,110
Massachusetts
boucharda Offline
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On time info relates to flights that were not cancelled

Re: AA Flight Reliability? [Re: boucharda] #245383
01/19/2021 07:51 PM
01/19/2021 07:51 PM
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Posts: 12,677
Peaceful Eastern North Carolin...
GaKaye Offline OP
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GaKaye  Offline OP
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Originally Posted by boucharda
On time info relates to flights that were not cancelled


Exactly. It looks like they are operating that flight from MIA to SXM every day now, but November may be quite different than January. Still haven't made a decision...

Re: AA Flight Reliability? [Re: GaKaye] #245400
01/20/2021 01:44 AM
01/20/2021 01:44 AM
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Posts: 3,875
Vancouver, WA
Todd Offline
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I would guess it also has to do with the flight number and not the day of week as well. Predicting what will happen in May would be a stretch in a normal year, November and this year would be near impossible to predict. Although I would be on changes.


I prefer the Isle seat
Re: AA Flight Reliability? [Re: Todd] #245402
01/20/2021 06:37 AM
01/20/2021 06:37 AM
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Posts: 12,677
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GaKaye Offline OP
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GaKaye  Offline OP
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Todd, I was hoping you'd chime in on this. I did look up the flight number, and now it seems to be running seven days a week. As you say though, what will happen in November is impossible to predict. We still haven't made a decision; there are just so very many variables.

Re: AA Flight Reliability? [Re: GaKaye] #245406
01/20/2021 07:59 AM
01/20/2021 07:59 AM
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PelicanPirate Offline
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https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL1136

Here is an example of what flightaware can show for a flight number. In this case the Miami run seems to succeed most days.

You can buy more data and run some statistics/odds.

Re: AA Flight Reliability? [Re: PelicanPirate] #245407
01/20/2021 08:04 AM
01/20/2021 08:04 AM
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Re: AA Flight Reliability? [Re: GaKaye] #245440
01/20/2021 02:52 PM
01/20/2021 02:52 PM
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 3,875
Vancouver, WA
Todd Offline
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Todd  Offline
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Aloha, I did my best to copy and paste and edit out the fluff but this is off of a site I use (pathfinder) for shipping cargo via air, which is what I do. It is all based on the flight number and does not specify based on the day of the week. If the flight number changes then the stats start over, note that this is based on 44 flights so guessing that is how long that flight number has been used. This last year passenger loads have been way off, so flight consistency has been off as well. Who knows what what will change after today and when the point of unrestricted travel will be. I don't think this is a copyright violation, if it is I apologize.

Type of Flight Non-stop Flight
Route MIA (Miami, FL) → SXM (Sint Maarten, SX)
Total Transit Time 2h 57m
Connections None
Stops None

AA #1136
Carrier American Airlines (AA)
Equipment Boeing 737-800 Passenger (738)
Service Sched Passenger / Normal Service

Flight Rating: 3.45
Flights 44
On Time 37 84%
Delayed 15+ 5 11%
Delayed 30+ 1 2%
Delayed 45+ 0 0%
Diverted 0 0%
Cancelled 1 2%

Avg Delay 14 min
Max Delay 36 min
Std Dev 11 min


MIA (Miami, FL) SXM (Sint Maarten, SX)
Wed, Nov-17-21
10:30 Wed, Nov-17-21
14:27
No Forecast Available No Forecast Available

Last edited by Todd; 01/20/2021 02:53 PM.

I prefer the Isle seat
Re: AA Flight Reliability? [Re: Todd] #245446
01/20/2021 05:09 PM
01/20/2021 05:09 PM
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 12,677
Peaceful Eastern North Carolin...
GaKaye Offline OP
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GaKaye  Offline OP
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Thank you Todd! That's very helpful.

Re: AA Flight Reliability? [Re: GaKaye] #245448
01/20/2021 05:26 PM
01/20/2021 05:26 PM
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CaribLee Offline
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While it's impossible to know what will be going on in November, I believe things will be much closer to normal by then. Having said that, I live in Georgia and have been traveling to St. Maarten annually (or more) for 25 years--almost always going through Miami and only occasionally through Charlotte. Having studied flights and fares religiously for those 25 plus years, I can tell you that Miami is AA's primary gateway to St. Maarten (for connecting flights) with Charlotte second. So I would be more comfortable with a flight going through Miami as they won't likely be cancelled unless something really unusual is going on. Only other consideration is they might have two flights scheduled from Miami each day (which is normal during normal times) that might be consolidated into one flight if planes are not full. But if things are anywhere close to normal by November, I expect there to be at least one flight out of Miami each day and possibly two. Personally, I would not hesitate to book now a flight through Miami for November (or Charlotte for that matter). But you should do what you are comfortable doing. PM me if you have other questions.

Re: AA Flight Reliability? [Re: CaribLee] #245452
01/20/2021 06:15 PM
01/20/2021 06:15 PM
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 12,677
Peaceful Eastern North Carolin...
GaKaye Offline OP
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GaKaye  Offline OP
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Thank you for your insight. I too hope that things will be much more normal by November!


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