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H Season is here...... #302831
06/15/2023 10:57 AM
06/15/2023 10:57 AM
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 2,495
Anguilla, British West Indies
NeilRooney Offline OP
Traveler
NeilRooney  Offline OP
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 2,495
Anguilla, British West Indies
NHC image this morning.........

[img]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5[/img]


Another Day On Planet Earth
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Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302838
06/15/2023 01:55 PM
06/15/2023 01:55 PM
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,146
Louisiana
o2bnsxm Offline
Traveler
o2bnsxm  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,146
Louisiana
OOOOO NOOOOOOO !!! He said the "H" word !!!

Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302845
06/15/2023 04:26 PM
06/15/2023 04:26 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 5,345
Kennys Offline
Traveler
Kennys  Offline
Traveler
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 5,345
Prayers and we should be okay.

Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302846
06/15/2023 05:04 PM
06/15/2023 05:04 PM
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,559
Grenada
Zanshin Offline
Traveler
Zanshin  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,559
Grenada
The conditions are not conducive to formation at this time of the season. I'm watching this wave and it might turn into a storm system around Martinique on Monday/Tuesday next week. That's important to me, since I'm in Martinique right now smile But we'll have a couple of days time as this wave moves across the Atlantic to let the spaghetti models start to look alike and give us a likely storm path. So now we have our ~14-day summer rhythm starting...


[Linked Image]
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: Kennys] #302848
06/15/2023 06:12 PM
06/15/2023 06:12 PM
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,657
Brookfield, CT.
pat Offline
Traveler
pat  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,657
Brookfield, CT.
Lesley,

Know that you and all the islands people along with our beloved island itself are in our hearts and prayers for a calm and quiet “H” season.


Respectfully,

pat



"Always keep your words soft and sweet, just in case you have to eat
them."
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: pat] #302853
06/15/2023 07:40 PM
06/15/2023 07:40 PM
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,665
United States of America
bdeeley Offline
Traveler
bdeeley  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,665
United States of America
Hurricane
Hurricane
Hurricane
Hurricane
...


Be Happy! Simply because you deserve to be. 😁
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302854
06/15/2023 08:22 PM
06/15/2023 08:22 PM
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,657
Brookfield, CT.
pat Offline
Traveler
pat  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,657
Brookfield, CT.
Behave, Brian. We don’t use that word if we can avoid it! 😉🙂


Respectfully,

pat



"Always keep your words soft and sweet, just in case you have to eat
them."
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: bdeeley] #302855
06/15/2023 08:56 PM
06/15/2023 08:56 PM
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 18,939
Auburn, WA
SXMScubaman Offline
Traveler
SXMScubaman  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 18,939
Auburn, WA
Originally Posted by bdeeley
Hurricane
Hurricane
Hurricane
Hurricane
...

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302859
06/15/2023 10:10 PM
06/15/2023 10:10 PM
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 1,773
So. Shore MA.
jollymonsrv Offline
Traveler
jollymonsrv  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 1,773
So. Shore MA.
Neil. B Have. Nice heads Up

Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302863
06/15/2023 11:44 PM
06/15/2023 11:44 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 5,345
Kennys Offline
Traveler
Kennys  Offline
Traveler
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 5,345
Hi Neil , we haven't been back to Anguilla way back but had great times at Meads bay and Frangappatie , sorry for the spelling mistake . Planning on coming one day and we have a good friend Wendy Samuel from Mary Land that has some suggestions for us but will love to meet you at your place and have some good local Anguillan food , nothing about fancy foods that we know about on St.Maarten lol.

Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302867
06/16/2023 06:34 AM
06/16/2023 06:34 AM
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 2,037
Westchester /NYC
Colour1 Offline
Traveler
Colour1  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 2,037
Westchester /NYC
Sounds like it could be a couple of really rough days for "our" lil island. Sending prayers to all our friends that live and work on the island!!


Sand Gravity, got to love it!
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302872
06/16/2023 07:40 AM
06/16/2023 07:40 AM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,541
Vermont
sxmmartini Offline
Traveler
sxmmartini  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,541
Vermont
Nothing but a wave moving across from Africa. If there is something out there I will always let you know.

Attached Files IMG_0194.png
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302878
06/16/2023 08:36 AM
06/16/2023 08:36 AM
Joined: Sep 2021
Posts: 376
Ontario Canada
D
Dr Phil SXM Offline
Traveler
Dr Phil SXM  Offline
Traveler
D
Joined: Sep 2021
Posts: 376
Ontario Canada
As we enter early hurricane season, would just like to point out that the marine programs such as Predict Wind and Windy, are relatively accurate for longer range outcomes and predictions. Nothing is perfect, but I have been using these for many years.
The current system coming off West Africa, as shown by the National hurricane centre is expected to develop into a cyclone. However, unlike the national hurricane center, both marine programs predict longer range outcomes, and both show the system, eventually bending northward away from the Caribbean. Hopefully that is the case.
The screenshot from Windy that I have attached shows the system going in a northern direction, but passing within a couple hundred miles of SXM next Friday June 23.

Dr. Phil SXM

Attached Files IMG_1023.jpegIMG_1024.jpeg
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302903
06/16/2023 12:41 PM
06/16/2023 12:41 PM
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,559
Grenada
Zanshin Offline
Traveler
Zanshin  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,559
Grenada
If the spaghetti models line up, the SXM isn't going to get a storm, but mid week next week there will be 10+ waves coming from the NE - that's close enough to a north swell to make most of the beaches untenable for a bit.


[Linked Image]
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302915
06/16/2023 06:21 PM
06/16/2023 06:21 PM
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 198
L
Lancer Offline
Traveler
Lancer  Offline
Traveler
L
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 198
Yikes! We fly out next Saturday so hope the predictions for a northward track hold true.

Re: H Season is here...... [Re: Lancer] #302918
06/16/2023 07:27 PM
06/16/2023 07:27 PM
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,665
United States of America
bdeeley Offline
Traveler
bdeeley  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,665
United States of America
Maybe it will provide you with a nice tail wind for the flight home.


Be Happy! Simply because you deserve to be. 😁
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: Dr Phil SXM] #302925
06/17/2023 04:40 AM
06/17/2023 04:40 AM
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 2,037
Westchester /NYC
Colour1 Offline
Traveler
Colour1  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 2,037
Westchester /NYC
WOW!! That is solid information!! If this all holds true, there could be some serious waves!! Surfs up!!


Sand Gravity, got to love it!
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302927
06/17/2023 06:38 AM
06/17/2023 06:38 AM
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,559
Grenada
Zanshin Offline
Traveler
Zanshin  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,559
Grenada
The models are now looking closer to each other, and it isn't good news at all. The system will most likely develop and, while perhaps not a hurricane, strong winds and waves around a revolving centre will happen. The bad news is that it looks like next Thursday is landfall around Dominica. I'm just to the south and can see Dominica from here... I am going to get my boat ready for immediate travel and might flee to the south on Monday. But most of the time storm systems curve to the north - and it doesn't take much of a change in path at that distance to put St. Martin in the storm's path.
NOAA Forecast 17/06/2023 Morning
[Linked Image]

Last edited by Zanshin; 06/17/2023 06:39 AM.

[Linked Image]
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302934
06/17/2023 09:37 AM
06/17/2023 09:37 AM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,541
Vermont
sxmmartini Offline
Traveler
sxmmartini  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 7,541
Vermont
Invest with spaghetti model…

Attached Files IMG_0218.jpeg
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: Dr Phil SXM] #302936
06/17/2023 10:58 AM
06/17/2023 10:58 AM
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 1,132
CaribLee Offline
Traveler
CaribLee  Offline
Traveler
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 1,132
Phil.....I also like Windy as it seems to generally be more accurate than other models. It now has it tracking further south. Still up in the air as to where it will actually go.

Attached Files Screenshot_20230617_105424_Windy.jpg
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302947
06/17/2023 12:33 PM
06/17/2023 12:33 PM
Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 301
Lake Orion, MI
gomer36 Offline
Traveler
gomer36  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 301
Lake Orion, MI
I was just reading a story regarding this very topic before I jumped on here. It was about the two main competing factors this season, a much warmer than normal Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico versus a sudden flip in the Pacific from three years of La Nina to El Nino that's also getting stronger faster than predicted. El Nino tends to be good for the Caribbean and the island we all love as the strong westerlies it creates tend to create shear and "blow the tops off" tropical cyclones, and also causes more storms to make an early turn into the North Atlantic and become fish storms. The discussion was about which major climate force would ultimately prevail this season. Historically, El Nino makes for a mild hurricane season...here's to hoping history repeats itself.

Last edited by gomer36; 06/17/2023 12:34 PM.

"We are tied to the ocean. And when we go back to the sea, whether it is to sail or to watch - we are going back from whence we came." ~ John F. Kennedy
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: CaribLee] #302949
06/17/2023 12:49 PM
06/17/2023 12:49 PM
Joined: Sep 2021
Posts: 376
Ontario Canada
D
Dr Phil SXM Offline
Traveler
Dr Phil SXM  Offline
Traveler
D
Joined: Sep 2021
Posts: 376
Ontario Canada
Yep I see that Lee. Just have to keep an eye on it as it gets closer. Does not look like it will develop into a strong storm based on the models. But still, important to be aware that it’s out there. Quite early in the season.

Dr. Phil Sxm

Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302969
06/18/2023 07:19 AM
06/18/2023 07:19 AM
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,559
Grenada
Zanshin Offline
Traveler
Zanshin  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,559
Grenada
Overnight the forecasts have changed significantly, now 3 of them have a CAT 3 hurricane, and 8 have a hurricane forecast. The ECMWF model has it passing over St. Croix midday next Saturday and the BVI will get over 30 knots of wind. The GFS model has a bigger hurricane, way out to the east and north and due to the wind circulation the BVI would only have 8 knots of wind on Saturday afternoon. I know which forecast I'd prefer (that's the "safety bias") but right now either is possible.


[Linked Image]
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: Zanshin] #302973
06/18/2023 07:49 AM
06/18/2023 07:49 AM
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,317
RI
jomarc Offline
Traveler
jomarc  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,317
RI
Wow! A Category 3 hurricane in June!!! That has to be a rarity.

If that’s the case, I am praying that all stay safe.


Jo-

A smile is a curve that sets everything straight.
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #302979
06/18/2023 11:03 AM
06/18/2023 11:03 AM
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,559
Grenada
Zanshin Offline
Traveler
Zanshin  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,559
Grenada
Here is the most recent chart of the spaghetti models, 5 show CAT 3 or greater, and a total of 9 indicate a hurricane is forming.

[Linked Image]


[Linked Image]
Re: H Season is here...... [Re: NeilRooney] #303044
06/20/2023 08:55 AM
06/20/2023 08:55 AM
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,426
Rhode Island
RonDon Offline
Traveler
RonDon  Offline
Traveler
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,426
Rhode Island
Praying you get outta harm Zanshin


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